2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[StruThiO]

I know this can change quickly but this seems kinda low for this time of year, to me anyways.....

[StruThiO]

sorry for spam but ?!?!?!?!?

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1268230528643354625

[hurricanes1234]

sorry for spam but ?!?!?!?!?

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1268230528643354625

Yup, I agree it's still completely uncertain at this point.

But I remember a scenario like that occurred in 2017 with Tropical Storm Bret when it skirted the southern Caribbean on June 19th.

[Shell Mound]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1268190442996318213

According to Tropical Tidbits, there is an expansive area of +1.5°–3.5°C (!) anomalies from just north of the Cabo Verde islands to the Bay of Biscay, based on CDAS data. Those are very robust anomalies for the Canary Current in early June. These anomalies, on the other hand, are located very close to the coastline of North Africa and Iberia. Typically, a +AMO exhibits the strongest warmth to the west of North Africa and Iberia, not along the immediate coastline, so the current configuration is not exactly prototypical. Still, the warmth is very impressive.

[Kingarabian]

I know this can change quickly but this seems kinda low for this time of year, to me anyways.....

[url]https://i.imgur.com/LlZ7e50.jpg[url]

Was gonna post this yesterday. According to this chart, It definitely looks low.

[Hammy]

I know this can change quickly but this seems kinda low for this time of year, to me anyways.....

[url]https://i.imgur.com/LlZ7e50.jpg[url]

Was gonna post this yesterday. According to this chart, It definitely looks low.

Especially when you take into consideration that there was a change in the graphic with the new satellite that made it stand out more. Another interesting note is seeing that huge wave over Africa, 1996 and 2010 stand out for me as two years that had fairly strong waves coming off in early June.

[aspen]

I know this can change quickly but this seems kinda low for this time of year, to me anyways.....

[url]https://i.imgur.com/LlZ7e50.jpg[url]

Was gonna post this yesterday. According to this chart, It definitely looks low.

Especially when you take into consideration that there was a change in the graphic with the new satellite that made it stand out more. Another interesting note is seeing that huge wave over Africa, 1996 and 2010 stand out for me as two years that had fairly strong waves coming off in early June.

1996 and 2010 were both high-ACE seasons (166 and 165, specifically) with several long-tracking Cape Verde major hurricanes. Perhaps this is a sign that ACE could be in the 150-170 range with 5-6 major hurricanes, but it’s rather circumstantial evidence.

[gatorcane]

Things indeed look like they can get quite active this season with cooler than normal SSTs in the subtropical Atlantic and above normal in the tropics. Also cooler than normal In tropical pacific.

[Kingarabian]

5 day SAL forecast:



Nothing a decently sized pouch can't handle.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1268583443744673792

[cycloneye]

This from the Phil KLotzbach discussion of the updated forecast.

The Atlantic had a relatively similar SST pattern in late March, although there
are also some significant differences (Figure 21). Over the past two months, the Atlantic
has been characterized by considerable anomalous cooling in the Gulf of Mexico, with
weak anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic. The subtropical Atlantic and far North
Atlantic have anomalously warmed (Figure 22). The Atlantic was generally characterized
by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winter of 2019/20, but in the
past few weeks, the NAO has trended more neutral, which has favored anomalous
warming in portions of the subtropical Atlantic and anomalous cooling off of the US East
Coast (Figure 23). Overall, the current SST anomaly pattern correlates relatively well
with what is typically seen in active Atlantic hurricane seasons (Figure 24). Anomalous
warmth in the eastern Atlantic in May is typically associated with more active seasons.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1268583443744673792

Improbable but not impossible. This year? If Vegas wanted to give me 10-1 odds...... I'd hand 'em $10.00

[ScottNAtlanta]

I know this can change quickly but this seems kinda low for this time of year, to me anyways.....

[url]https://i.imgur.com/LlZ7e50.jpg[url]

Was gonna post this yesterday. According to this chart, It definitely looks low.

I think this is indicative of a +AMM which would foster cross equatorial westerly winds stronger in the northern hemisphere. This has been driving moisture into the region all spring. That would definitely keep the dust to a minimum, and drive warmer water to the coast.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1268583443744673792

Impressive for only June 4th!

Almost warrants a mention by the NHC.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1268644204361560064

[StruThiO]

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/mObiGVK.png

Yikes yes. They are merging classic + AMO

[gatorcane]

Another huge wave over Africa:

[HurricaneEnzo]

:eek:

Didn't figure the cool in the MDR was gonna be hanging around too long. It's really starting to look like this will be a season we remember for a long time.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

Another huge wave over Africa:

https://i.postimg.cc/VNgyv7t2/goes16-ir-eatl-202006060025.jpg

If we week getting giant waves like this, I would’ve be surprised if one of them develops into an early MDR system, maybe like Beryl ‘18.