2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[wxman57]

See the difference? A good 1C difference in many spots.
https://i.imgur.com/drhz6Fn.gif
https://i.imgur.com/gkqxgSv.png

Hard to tell, but my initial estimate is that the temps are warmer on the CDAS map. Look at 20N/40W, for example. About 24.8C on OSITA and 25.5C on CDAS. At 10N/40W, I see 27C on OSITA (top map) and 25.5C on CDAS. Are we saying that the top map is warmer than CDAS?

[NDG]

See the difference? A good 1C difference in many spots.
https://i.imgur.com/drhz6Fn.gif
https://i.imgur.com/gkqxgSv.png

Hard to tell, but my initial estimate is that the temps are warmer on the CDAS map. Look at 20N/40W, for example. About 24.8C on OSITA and 25.5C on CDAS. At 10N/40W, I see 27C on OSITA (top map) and 25.5C on CDAS. Are we saying that the top map is warmer than CDAS?

This is one of the areas, highlighted in red, that I have in question in which OSITA shows warmer SSTs than on CDAS, between 10N-20N & 40W-50W
It also shows the 27C SST isotherm further north than CDAS. Maybe not a whole 1C difference between the two in most areas but in most by a least a half degree C difference, IMO.

[Ntxw]

So in essence it has been cooling? Perhaps not to what the CDAS was showing (oversensitive) but on OISST as well.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1022954634116300800

[Hammy]

Not to say we're having another 2013 but questioning more as a potential indicator--is there something similar going on with the ocean circulation that could be causing this?

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: Not to say we're having another 2013 but questioning more as a potential indicator--is there something similar going on with the ocean circulation that could be causing this?

No, it's mostly atmospheric stuff here like trades & SAL that are capping the SSTs. I feel like those are low-balling the SSTs there too since there are buoys that are reporting warmer.

[Ntxw]

Some updated graphics from the rammb (CIRA CSU) for those following the metrics for the MDR

Tropical Atlantic

Shear



Vertical Instability



Pressure (MSLP)

Caribbean

Shear



Vertical Instability



Pressure (MSLP)

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1023188777198530560

[floridasun78]

too me loook aug could slow because Africa duct and EL Niño trying make come back i see alot shear in tropical too specifically in Caribbean

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1023188777198530560

I hate when people bring up 2005 as a comparison, we all know that it was once in a 50 year event. But yet only one hurricane formed east of 60W over the Atlantic MDR that year despite all the very warm SSTs.

[LarryWx]

Do you or does anyone else know of a link to these 2 MSLP anomaly graphs (as well as that for the GOM) for ASO of 2017? I’d like to see how low the MSLP actually was in relation to normal. I looked back in the “2017 Indicators” topic here and didn’t see them. Thanks in advance.

[NDG]

Do you or does anyone else know of a link to these 2 MSLP anomaly graphs (as well as that for the GOM) for ASO of 2017? I’d like to see how low the MSLP actually was in relation to normal. I looked back in the “2017 Indicators” topic here and didn’t see them. Thanks in advance.

Unfortunately they don't have it for MSLPs

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... index.html

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1023188777198530560

I hate when people bring up 2005 as a comparison, we all know that it was once in a 50 year event. But yet only one hurricane formed east of 60W over the Atlantic MDR that year despite all the very warm SSTs.

Well SST's are quite warm close to home (USA & SW Caribbean) so anything can happen IRT home brews. Most Cape Verde and central MDR storms are fish anyway.

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1023188777198530560[tweet]

I hate when people bring up 2005 as a comparison, we all know that it was once in a 50 year event. But yet only one hurricane formed east of 60W over the Atlantic MDR that year despite all the very warm SSTs.

This is the first comparison with 2005 I've seen on here in a while and its just for informative purposes. If you go to the total number of storms prediction thread, there are members with 2005ish predictions.

[CFLHurricane]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1023188777198530560[tweet]

I hate when people bring up 2005 as a comparison, we all know that it was once in a 50 year event. But yet only one hurricane formed east of 60W over the Atlantic MDR that year despite all the very warm SSTs.

This is the first comparison with 2005 I've seen on here in a while and its just for informative purposes. If you go to the total number of storms prediction thread, there are members with 2005ish predictions.

There will always be wishcaster comparisons to 2005 until another season tops it. Any comparisons to 2005 is an indicator to ignore that prediction as 2005 is a freak outlier for even the most active of years. We’d be lucky (unlucky?) to see another season like that in our lifetimes, even with global warming.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS long range is predicting a shut down of the Caribbean. Shear is way too high. Unless that changes, it may end up much quieter than I and many others thought. Below average is looking more likely, which is a relief.

[gatorcane]

GFS long range is predicting a shut down of the Caribbean. Shear is way too high. Unless that changes, it may end up much quieter than I and many others thought. Below average is looking more likely, which is a relief.

I would advise caution in putting much faith in any long-range model guidance. Genesis forecasting skill beyond 5 days and certainly beyond a week is quite low even with today's more sophisticated models.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Unlikely to see Atlantic tropical storm activity for the next 10-days.

After a very active 2017 season, forecasters expected 2018 to be much quieter. So far, can't get more lucky on the good side.

Needs to stay a ghost town out there.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1023964108117475333

[TheStormExpert]

GFS long range is predicting a shut down of the Caribbean. Shear is way too high. Unless that changes, it may end up much quieter than I and many others thought. Below average is looking more likely, which is a relief.

The Caribbean (excluding the NW) has pretty much been shutdown so far this season. A very quiet season is what many (including me) are going with.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS long range is predicting a shut down of the Caribbean. Shear is way too high. Unless that changes, it may end up much quieter than I and many others thought. Below average is looking more likely, which is a relief.

The Caribbean (excluding the NW) has pretty much been shutdown so far this season. A very quiet season is what many (including me) are going with.

It's pretty much normal for the Caribbean (except for maybe the NW Caribbean in late May/June) to be shut down before August.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS long range is predicting a shut down of the Caribbean. Shear is way too high. Unless that changes, it may end up much quieter than I and many others thought. Below average is looking more likely, which is a relief.

The Caribbean (excluding the NW) has pretty much been shutdown so far this season. A very quiet season is what many (including me) are going with.

It's pretty much normal for the Caribbean (except for maybe the NW Caribbean in late May/June) to be shut down before August.

This is very true. Did everybody forget tropical storm havey being sheared out last year in mid august?