ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Macrocane]

Latest CFS forecast is weird, it's like it had bad inicialization or something, reminds me to what it did a few month ago when there was a false cool pool in South America that affected the whole solution of the model.

[NDG]

Latest CFS forecast is weird, it's like it had bad inicialization or something, reminds me to what it did a few month ago when there was a false cool pool in South America that affected the whole solution of the model.

Yeah, I think is a big red flag that it shows Nino 3.4 warming up to warm neutral during August when the Euro shows increasing easterlies across the equatorial pacific over the next few days so it could be once again a bad initiation.

[stormwise]

-1 with lapse trend.


UKMET

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/757576941545394176

[Ntxw]

Holds at -0.6C this week

[cycloneye]

CPC in the 7/25/16 update has Nino 3.4 the same as last week's update -0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/758407280131919873

[Hunabku]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/758407280131919873

Hmm not a big fan of big Joe . Easterlies are cooperating now, but yes we have to see if a positive atmospheric feedback truly sets in as a result of the cooler SSTs - which in turn will cause even further cooling and greater atmospheric response. The SOI is trending more positive and looks to continue to do so.

Also big joe there is no such thing as Sub surface SST and we are not heading for an eminent ice age in fact it's just the opposite.

[abajan]

... there is no such thing as Sub surface SST and we are not heading for an eminent ice age in fact it's just the opposite.

Indeed. Sub surface sea surface temperature (SST) seems to be a contradiction, because it's either sub surface or it's not! I guess he meant to say "sub-surface sea temperature".

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/758979347147481088

[stormwise]

Hum 3.4 appears to be heading in the wrong direction.

[Ntxw]

Daily soi has been mostly positive, 30 day and 90 day are still fairly neutral. The trade burst will help the central Pacific cold pool underneath which does need replenishing. While it is cold, it is not nearly as cold as you need it to be for a more significant Nina. Still favoring the weak end La Nina, nothing has really changed to go up.

Code: Select all

23 Jul 2016   1015.68   1011.70   18.65   3.28   1.17
24 Jul 2016   1015.74   1011.55   19.94   3.51   1.57
25 Jul 2016   1015.90   1011.80   19.39   3.56   2.09
26 Jul 2016   1014.99   1012.00   12.56   3.65   2.57
27 Jul 2016   1013.99   1012.70   2.09   3.39   2.77
28 Jul 2016   1013.29   1013.80   -8.99   2.81   2.92
29 Jul 2016   1013.51   1013.00   -2.71   2.75   3.14
30 Jul 2016   1014.96   1012.40   9.91   3.11   3.35

I think it's pretty evident we are not getting a 1997-1998 Nino-Nina type switch. It may be similar to 1983 where it got several trimonthlies enough for an almost Nina.





However there is still a path to a moderate event. It has been done before with weak values during this period...2007, The subsurface then was not that impressive either but the atmospheric response was phenomenal and the -PDO really drove that event above the ocean.

[CaliforniaResident]

What is surprising to me is how the water temps here are still in El Nino mode (mid to upper 70s). During a La Nina summer, they are supposed to be at or below normal. During the summer of 2010, the water temperatures here were mostly in the low to mid 60s. I find the 10-15 degree difference between the average summer water temps mind boggling considering both were transitions into La Nina. I know this is just a tiny element in the whole overall global configuration but it appears that the EPAC doesn't want to cool down.

[Ntxw]

What is surprising to me is how the water temps here are still in El Nino mode (mid to upper 70s). During a La Nina summer, they are supposed to be at or below normal. During the summer of 2010, the water temperatures here were mostly in the low to mid 60s. I find the 10-15 degree difference between the average summer water temps mind boggling considering both were transitions into La Nina. I know this is just a tiny element in the whole overall global configuration but it appears that the EPAC doesn't want to cool down.

The warmer waters are the result of the persistent +PDO

[CaliforniaResident]

What is surprising to me is how the water temps here are still in El Nino mode (mid to upper 70s). During a La Nina summer, they are supposed to be at or below normal. During the summer of 2010, the water temperatures here were mostly in the low to mid 60s. I find the 10-15 degree difference between the average summer water temps mind boggling considering both were transitions into La Nina. I know this is just a tiny element in the whole overall global configuration but it appears that the EPAC doesn't want to cool down.

The warmer waters are the result of the persistent +PDO

Not sure if you realize how anomalous 75F+ SST are for us: it's like the +PDO has a much tighter grip on the forces than the waters in the equatorial Pacific. It will be very interesting to see how the effects play out in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the heart of the hurricane season. Both basins could end up with well above normal ACE in the end.

[NDG]

What is surprising to me is how the water temps here are still in El Nino mode (mid to upper 70s). During a La Nina summer, they are supposed to be at or below normal. During the summer of 2010, the water temperatures here were mostly in the low to mid 60s. I find the 10-15 degree difference between the average summer water temps mind boggling considering both were transitions into La Nina. I know this is just a tiny element in the whole overall global configuration but it appears that the EPAC doesn't want to cool down.

The warmer waters are the result of the persistent +PDO

Not sure if you realize how anomalous 75F+ SST are for us: it's like the +PDO has a much tighter grip on the forces than the waters in the equatorial Pacific. It will be very interesting to see how the effects play out in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the heart of the hurricane season. Both basins could end up with well above normal ACE in the end.

Weird how southern California's coastal waters are so warm but the rest of the California's coastal waters are slightly below average, well into the 50s.
I bet you guys in southern California are enjoying those mid to upper 70s SSTs!!!

[CaliforniaResident]

The warmer waters are the result of the persistent +PDO

Not sure if you realize how anomalous 75F+ SST are for us: it's like the +PDO has a much tighter grip on the forces than the waters in the equatorial Pacific. It will be very interesting to see how the effects play out in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the heart of the hurricane season. Both basins could end up with well above normal ACE in the end.

Weird how southern California's coastal waters are so warm but the rest of the California's coastal waters are slightly below average, well into the 50s.
I bet you guys in southern California are enjoying those mid to upper 70s SSTs!!!

Yes, the beaches have been great over the past several weeks (only complaint is the crowds!). I do believe last year, the entire state was above normal with SST with nearly 70F SST as far north as San Francisco but that seems have gone by the wayside. I still wonder if the PDO will crash big time over upcoming winter and summer of 2017 will bring that super La Nina on a large global scale (similar to how the failure of El Nino to develop in 2014 but how the atmosphere set itself up to blossom the following year).

[Hunabku]

Not sure if you realize how anomalous 75F+ SST are for us: it's like the +PDO has a much tighter grip on the forces than the waters in the equatorial Pacific. It will be very interesting to see how the effects play out in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the heart of the hurricane season. Both basins could end up with well above normal ACE in the end.

Weird how southern California's coastal waters are so warm but the rest of the California's coastal waters are slightly below average, well into the 50s.
I bet you guys in southern California are enjoying those mid to upper 70s SSTs!!!

Yes, the beaches have been great over the past several weeks (only complaint is the crowds!). I do believe last year, the entire state was above normal with SST with nearly 70F SST as far north as San Francisco but that seems have gone by the wayside. I still wonder if the PDO will crash big time over upcoming winter and summer of 2017 will bring that super La Nina on a large global scale (similar to how the failure of El Nino to develop in 2014 but how the atmosphere set itself up to blossom the following year).

The reason SSTs were higher across all of California's coast during 2015 was to large extent due to the persistence of the Aleutian Low (AL). The AL transports up relatively warmer water from the south and quells the costal upwelling that comes from high-pressure anticyclonic winds. The high pressures during Nina are more powerful while better positioned and SSTs are getting chillier as a result.

[cycloneye]

CPC 8/1/16 update is at -0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[wxmann_91]

Yes, the beaches have been great over the past several weeks (only complaint is the crowds!). I do believe last year, the entire state was above normal with SST with nearly 70F SST as far north as San Francisco but that seems have gone by the wayside. I still wonder if the PDO will crash big time over upcoming winter and summer of 2017 will bring that super La Nina on a large global scale (similar to how the failure of El Nino to develop in 2014 but how the atmosphere set itself up to blossom the following year).

PDO is not going to crash anytime soon, especially coming from a record + state the past few years. My thinking is the +PDO and -ENSO will help to modulate each others' magnitudes over the coming winter.