2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Nimbus]

Also you can see the umbrella shape which was depicted in some of the models before they could resolve there would be split energy instead of a TS in the NE Gulf. No models really do anything with it except the NAM and RGEM do hint at some turning - just nothing past infant stage.

Lowest gulf pressures were near the Southwest Florida coast, Tampa buoy further north has dropped from 1023mb to 1015mb over the last couple days. Lots of shear induced convection with outflow boundaries in the visible imagery earlier. Something could spin up in another day or so.

[Steve]

Yeah. I don’t know if it gets tropical or just some characteristics, but it’s something to keep half an eye on.

[Steve]

GFS is out to 3.5 days. Fairly decent shot ima hit on that guess during Dorian of hitting 60 ACE by this weekend. Based on running GFS we could be 70-75 by next weekend. ?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1400&fh=72

[jasons2k]

Looks like OTS on this run. And not much rain for Texas from the Gulf either. We really need some more rain over here.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like OTS on this run. And not much rain for Texas from the Gulf either. We really need some more rain over here.

0z Canadian and ICON show plentiful rain in southeast TX along with some minor development from the Gulf system.

0z UKMET develops the Gulf system into a TS before moving into Houston next week.

[stormlover2013]

I say it will show 30 percent chance in morning from Nhc

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to show something in the western Caribbean past 300hrs but most likely is a phantom until proven otherwise and it’s from the wave coming off of Africa tomorrow

[bamajammer4eva]

Long range models still show the US as safe from any development coming from new Tropical Waves however, it has backed way way off of any cool-down coming to the gulf coast which makes me wonder if they may be changing their tune soon on OTS scenarios? Also local TV Met seems very interested and TWC expert still saying US needs to watch these waves.

[gatorcane]

Wow look at that monster upper anti-cyclone parked over the Western Caribbean and there are lower pressure anomalies as well. If something gets going under that watch out

[Tailspin]

Sal load . click on image for veiw large+ animation.

[Hammy]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3ykN6syH/9-km-ECMWF-Global-Pressure-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vortici.gif [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k6dVbj43/CAMS-Copernicus-Atmospheric-Monitoring-Tropical-Atlantic-Dust-Ae.gif [/url]

Sal load . click on image for veiw large+ animation.

Why has there been so much dust this late?

[Bhuggs]

Way too long range, but 0z gfs has a piece of energy in hours 300+ coming north through Cuba and into Florida. With the troughs this year favoring recurve on anything coming from the east, this is what I will be looking at for the rest of the season

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing western Caribbean development in the long run from a tropical wave that comes off of Africa in 4 1/2 days, maybe something to watch as it also develops it in the MDR but falls apart and continues west through the Caribbean

Note the development of this is day 14 which is prone to large errors but the 12z run had the beginnings of development from the same wave so if this is still there in the models in 7 days then we may have to keep an eye on this but it’s als had runs with the same wave that develop it in the MDR and go north

[SFLcane]

Looks quite active across the Atlantic long range models showing multiple systems but it’s looking like US will watch from a distance as these storms look to not bother anyone. Hopefully the same could be said for the Caribbean islands.

[SFLcane]

I anticipate we'll see a Caribbean storm at some point. October + Phase 8/1 MJO means a Central American Gyre is quite possible. Quite hard to predict you can end with weak storms like Philipe 2017 or Michael in 2018.

[bqknight]

Quite a few Euro ensemble members are developing something by Venezuela around Day 6.

[Astromanía]

EPAC, CPAC and ATL just exploded

[SconnieCane]

EPAC, CPAC and ATL just exploded

At first I thought the quiet start was a head fake to a busy September/October with Dorian, then I thought Dorian was a head fake to a more active season after the next several invests fizzled despite model support for development. Now...

Welcome to September, folks.

[galaxy401]

EPAC, CPAC and ATL just exploded

That's the power of the MJO. Can make activity explode in just days.

[stormzilla]

Quite a few Euro ensemble members are developing something by Venezuela around Day 6.

Saw that happening and wondering if its due to strong ridging? ....not good for us here in Trinidad