2016 EPAC Season

[CaliforniaResident]

GFS has a hurricane developing off of Baja in the long term outlook with the remnants going exactly where I want them to. Any evidence that this will come to fruition?

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather has formed over the far eastern
Pacific centered a few hundred miles south of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward
near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Extratropical94]

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur due to
strong upper-level winds while the low remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

At this pace, if both areas develop, we could reach the O storm before the middle of September!

[Extratropical94]

GFS has a hurricane developing off of Baja in the long term outlook with the remnants going exactly where I want them to. Any evidence that this will come to fruition?

Today's GFS runs favor an out-to-sea solution with the storm moving towards the NW away from Baja and then weakening. The 12Z Euro shows a stalling system W of Baja.

[Darvince]

I do not think we'll see a storm head up right next to California, but we can always hope

16-E in 2015 and Odile in 2014 ruined me

[Extratropical94]

5am TWO

A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is expected to drift westward during the next few days,
and any development should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[CaliforniaResident]

I do not think we'll see a storm head up right next to California, but we can always hope

16-E in 2015 and Odile in 2014 ruined me

I'm hoping for a Delores track. Looks less promising than it did a couple of days ago but still possible.
Southern California is thirsty.

[Ntxw]

EPAC has eclipsed its annual average ACE. 90E has been designated, safe to say an above average season is locked, a hyperactive active season is still in the cards. Remains the most active basin on earth so far this year in the NHEM

[Extratropical94]

11am TWO

A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is expected to drift westward during the next few days,
and any development should be slow to occur due to strong upper-
level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Extratropical94]

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
few showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is
not expected since the low is expected to be pulled eastward
into the circulation of the larger tropical disturbance near the
coast of Mexico later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1500 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the
system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[hurricanes1234]

2. An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1500 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the
system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

3. Another area of low pressure is likely to form by the middle of
next week well south of Mexico. Some gradual development of this
system is possible late next week while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

@ #3: Possibly another storm moving west like Lester did?

[Yellow Evan]

idk why either has been tagged tbh but the GFS seems quite confused right now, so we'll see.

[Extratropical94]

5am TWO

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 1800 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some slow
development of this system is possible while this disturbance moves
generally eastward and then northward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several
hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Slow development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Extratropical94]

Code orange for both areas at 11am

1. Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located
about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is showing some signs of organization. Some
development of this system is possible while this disturbance drifts
eastward and then moves northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several
hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Slow development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[hurricanes1234]

EPAC on steroids yet again! Possible we could reach the R storm before September ends if we continue at this pace IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development of this system during the next few days while it drifts
eastward, and then turns northward later in the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several
hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Slow development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Extratropical94]

An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec has formed in association with a tropical wave.
A low pressure system is expected to form from this disturbance in a
couple of days several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located well south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A
low pressure system is expected to form from this wave in a couple
of days well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[hurricanes1234]

What do the models show?