Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[TheAustinMan]

how are you guys viewing the hi res version of the GFS at Tidbits? I can't find it... for example, the pressure 186 hours is showing 990mb on the GFS map I'm viewing

Lower Dynamics > Surface Pressure & 10m wind
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Thus far the modelling has been remarkably consistent with regard to the deterministic GFS, with intensification delayed just slightly this run.

[SoupBone]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

This is a threat to anyone located from Texas to SW Florida.

That's an awfully small window for a system 380+ hours out.

[cycloneye]

Continues to deepen at 186 hours.943 mbs going more NW.

[SFLcane]

Heading wnw/nw at 198hrs

[AutoPenalti]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

This is a threat to anyone located from Texas to SW Florida.

That's an awfully small window for a system 380+ hours out.

That's why we have the disclaimer, and based on model consensus.

[cycloneye]

Jamaica landfall?

[centuryv58]

Yes, looks like Jamaica

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like on that path it may not clear western Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

Eye passes just to the south.

[Alyono]

Canadian model goes full Flora

[Kazmit]

GFS showing this in the eastern Caribbean.

[JtSmarts]

Absolutely massive. Been a long time since we've seen one of those gigantic storms in the Atlantic Basin.

[cycloneye]

What about 918 mbs? (240 hours)

[tarheelprogrammer]

918mb

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016092412&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=200

[PTrackerLA]

Going to get very close to Yucatan and then someone is in trouble on the GOM.
276hrs 500mb

[SFLcane]

Canadian has a hurricane in the Bahamas

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS not following the latest GEFS Ensembles one bit, if anything it seems very Wilma-esque.

[JtSmarts]

Looks like it might pull a "Wilma" or worse on the Yucatan.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like through the yucatan channel towards the big bend area

Nope over the yucatan towards Texas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Bones2016]

My leg is swollen and it means it will hit Florida. Going to tell the wife to by a generator, water and buy wood for our windows.