Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Evil Jeremy]

00z EPS..

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/05/eps.png

It seem's I've stumbled into the Subtropical Storm Alberto thread from back in May.

[tailgater]

First vis sat loop shows yet another weak LLC/eddy rotating around out of the high clouds north of the eastern Honduran coast. This still has a long way to go. IMO.

Yeah this one(vortex) will likely head west into Belize and a new one pop out Saturday evening or Sunday on the northern coast of the Yucatan if I’m reading this models correctly. Sounds like Fla. wants it. I’m tried of all the rain here.

[northjaxpro]

Still lots of shear down there in the Western Caribbean. It is going to take a bit more time to get consolidation of one main dominant low level circulation.

[SFLcane]

You can see any real dominate llc if any is in the eastern pacific. Not much to see yet on the atlantic side.

[Aric Dunn]

First vis sat loop shows yet another weak LLC/eddy rotating around out of the high clouds north of the eastern Honduran coast. This still has a long way to go. IMO.

Yeah this one(vortex) will likely head west into Belize and a new one pop out Saturday evening or Sunday on the northern coast of the Yucatan if I’m reading this models correctly. Sounds like Fla. wants it. I’m tried of all the rain here.

I can count at least 2 small vorts both are rotating west and wsw out of the convection which means there is likely a larger more dominant one somewhere in the convection that they are rotating around.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is pulling in more of the EPAC low-level moisture.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[CW0262]

fxus62 kmlb 050842
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
440 am EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tuesday-Friday...specific details of any tropical development off to
out west remain rather murky, given the varying op-model solutions
and their lack of strong consensus/continuity. However, the general
trend will be for whatever does or doesn't develop over the Gomex
to turn slowly northward around the western flank of the ridge to
our north, which should be weakening to some extent during the
latter half of the week. This is turn would cause veering of the low
to mid level wind flow, and continued advection of deep tropical
moisture northwest-north across the peninsula, thereby further increasing
rain chances into the numerous/likely category for most, if not all,
of the work week. The chance for ts will also increase given a more
southerly wind flow, although clouds/higher precip coverage will
keep this no higher than scattered. Maxes will be in the u80s, with
few inland spots touching 90f. Mins in the l-m70s inland, M-u70s
along the coast.

[jlauderdal]

fxus62 kmlb 050842
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
440 am EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tuesday-Friday...specific details of any tropical development off to
out west remain rather murky, given the varying op-model solutions
and their lack of strong consensus/continuity. However, the general
trend will be for whatever does or doesn't develop over the Gomex
to turn slowly northward around the western flank of the ridge to
our north, which should be weakening to some extent during the
latter half of the week. This is turn would cause veering of the low
to mid level wind flow, and continued advection of deep tropical
moisture northwest-north across the peninsula, thereby further increasing
rain chances into the numerous/likely category for most, if not all,
of the work week. The chance for ts will also increase given a more
southerly wind flow, although clouds/higher precip coverage will
keep this no higher than scattered. Maxes will be in the u80s, with
few inland spots touching 90f. Mins in the l-m70s inland, M-u70s
along the coast.

whoever wrote that cant be more wrong..

[KUEFC]

fxus62 kmlb 050842
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
440 am EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tuesday-Friday...specific details of any tropical development off to
out west remain rather murky, given the varying op-model solutions
and their lack of strong consensus/continuity. However, the general
trend will be for whatever does or doesn't develop over the Gomex
to turn slowly northward around the western flank of the ridge to
our north, which should be weakening to some extent during the
latter half of the week. This is turn would cause veering of the low
to mid level wind flow, and continued advection of deep tropical
moisture northwest-north across the peninsula, thereby further increasing
rain chances into the numerous/likely category for most, if not all,
of the work week. The chance for ts will also increase given a more
southerly wind flow, although clouds/higher precip coverage will
keep this no higher than scattered. Maxes will be in the u80s, with
few inland spots touching 90f. Mins in the l-m70s inland, M-u70s
along the coast.

whoever wrote that cant be more wrong..

Why do you say this?

[robbielyn]

fxus62 kmlb 050842
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
440 am EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tuesday-Friday...specific details of any tropical development off to
out west remain rather murky, given the varying op-model solutions
and their lack of strong consensus/continuity. However, the general
trend will be for whatever does or doesn't develop over the Gomex
to turn slowly northward around the western flank of the ridge to
our north, which should be weakening to some extent during the
latter half of the week. This is turn would cause veering of the low
to mid level wind flow, and continued advection of deep tropical
moisture northwest-north across the peninsula, thereby further increasing
rain chances into the numerous/likely category for most, if not all,
of the work week. The chance for ts will also increase given a more
southerly wind flow, although clouds/higher precip coverage will
keep this no higher than scattered. Maxes will be in the u80s, with
few inland spots touching 90f. Mins in the l-m70s inland, M-u70s
along the coast.

whoever wrote that cant be more wrong..

Why do you say that? Just curious.

[tpr1967]

He said it in fun. The person who wrote the long term discussion is Meteorologist Cristaldi AKA AJC3

[jlauderdal]

fxus62 kmlb 050842
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
440 am EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tuesday-Friday...specific details of any tropical development off to
out west remain rather murky, given the varying op-model solutions
and their lack of strong consensus/continuity. However, the general
trend will be for whatever does or doesn't develop over the Gomex
to turn slowly northward around the western flank of the ridge to
our north, which should be weakening to some extent during the
latter half of the week. This is turn would cause veering of the low
to mid level wind flow, and continued advection of deep tropical
moisture northwest-north across the peninsula, thereby further increasing
rain chances into the numerous/likely category for most, if not all,
of the work week. The chance for ts will also increase given a more
southerly wind flow, although clouds/higher precip coverage will
keep this no higher than scattered. Maxes will be in the u80s, with
few inland spots touching 90f. Mins in the l-m70s inland, M-u70s
along the coast.

whoever wrote that cant be more wrong..

Why do you say this?

notice the little smiley face after my reply, it was a j/k

[KUEFC]

whoever wrote that cant be more wrong..

Why do you say this?

notice the little smiley face after my reply, it was a j/k

Sorry my bad!!

[TheStormExpert]

Here are my thoughts...

I think it is way too soon to know exact whereabouts and landfall intensity. But if I were to just guess and pick a general landfall region I’d go with from the FL Panhandle near the Big Bend region to the Louisiana Gulf Coast, hopefully we can narrow down the area in the days to come. Intensity-wise if I had to guess it would likely be a sheared east-weighed moderate-strong TS into the Gulf Coast. Can’t rule out a minimal hurricane but the effects won’t be much different. I do not at the moment for see a potent hurricane making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

[jlauderdal]

Why do you say this?

notice the little smiley face after my reply, it was a j/k

Sorry my bad!!

nah, we are all good...its a tricky setup for sure

[Agua]

Is it early August?

Has certainly felt like it for the last 10 weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it early August?

Has certainly felt like it for the last 10 weeks.

Usually don’t see our first significant cold front until at least the third or fourth week of October. This year we’ll be lucky to see it by Thanksgiving with how stubbornly positive the NAO has been since June.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=84

been watching the nam for the last 2 days, I think it's been the most consistent short term here is the 12z run for today

[NDG]

You can see any real dominate llc if any is in the eastern pacific. Not much to see yet on the atlantic side.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/05/yea.gif

But even the one in the eastern pacific is rotating around the main gyre.

[SFLcane]

You can see any real dominate llc if any is in the eastern pacific. Not much to see yet on the atlantic side.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/05/yea.gif

But even the one in the eastern pacific is rotating around the main gyre.

Was just pointing out that 97e based on the models might do the rare cross over into the caribbean. Either way it looks like a wet and stormy week across the SFL next week.