Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Well the 12z UKMet is also showing something like the Euro. That is a strange path for October, it looks like September. 2014 has been just one big headache.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2e1aexz.jpg

against my better judgement but here goes..what is the gfs doing with this system?

The 00Z and 06Z GFS showed some gradual development with the system impacting Florida in the 06Z in the long-range. The 12Z GFS seems to take it over Hispaniola so it doesn't seem to get going but it heads west. The system under discussion is this one:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116827

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't make sense because a front suppose to stall over S.FL. next wendsday.

long range models are forecasting the high over the Florida
Peninsula to move east into the Atlantic waters early next week.
This will allow for a cold front over the northwestern United States
to move southeast this weekend across the central United States and
into northern Florida early next week. The long range models
continue to move the cold front southward and into South Florida by
the middle of next week before stalling it out over South Florida
for late next week.

[NDG]

As good as I may put the Euro this year I am not buying its 240 hr forecast, this is the first run that shows another system to form north of the Lesser Antilles and head westward towards S FL.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the euro got a case of gfs.

[Dean4Storms]

These models are dancing all over the place. When that happens you just have to watch for consistency and see if it gets inside 5 days along with other models latching into it.

[Hammy]

The exact track may not pan out but it still gives a good idea that something will likely be headed towards the Bahamas in the next week or so. The models don't base things on climatology but real time factors (except the GFS, which sits around fantasizing all day) so I wouldn't write off the model run just because it doesn't seem like something that would normally happen. And when the model drops it tomorrow, don't get the false sense that it was incorrect as it'll likely show back up a few days later.

Also keep in mind we had an unclassified system in 2003 move east-to-west for several days including across the Bahamas and S Florida, and this was in November, so the track shown isn't by any means impossible.

[weatherwindow]

[quote="blp"]Well the 12z UKMet is also showing something like the Euro. That is a strange path for October, it looks like September. 2014 has been just one big headache.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Unusual but not without precedent....in addition, similiar genesis northeast of Leewards

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1941.pdf

[Hammy]

Looking at the 1941 system, Kate in 1985 (in November, so even more unusual) also springs to mind.

[SFLcane]

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/upcoming-window-for-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-development-the-7-14-day-tropical-cyclogenesis-risk-outlook-1014-1021/

[weatherfanatic]

Our old friend 00z GFS is up to its tricks again but its really concerning IF even 1% chance its right 13 days out for a giant storm to retrograde into cape cod with winds gusting to 80mph, encompassing a area similar in size top you know who 2 years ago and one week later. And it all comes from the area near Eastern Yucatan Hmmmm. That article posted above is interesting to say the least may need to watch for a big system sometime in last 2 weeks of October. I am not letting it fool me at this time but thats just a bit jarring to see that after living through 2012 myself here in NY. Not the first run showing that (of course we know Model U has shown many consecutive runs of things not happening). But this particular run just had my jaw drop.

[Hammy]

Euro continues to show a system developing and moving in the general direction of Florida, and it appears that it's now bumped up the development to 96 hours from >120 hours since the last run.

edit: no longer shows it going into Florida, but now shows a strong Cat 2 meandering in the Bahamas...

[weatherfanatic]

Actaully Hammy on the high resolution Euro from wxbell.com the winds at 240 hrs are 119mph, Cat 3! And the GFS still trying to be a funny pants and show a major monster storm in the long range around 23rd. This is the GFS last chance to make a stand, and the Euro too for this possible cat 3 hurricane.

[weatherfanatic]

With the way things suddenly started heating up I can see 3-4 named storms coming out the next few weeks. Just my opinion but we will probably have Fay soon, and then 90L looks to really ramp up if Euro is right and to be 91L looks very impressive. And there is still long range support for future development in the carribbean, making up for lost time maybe!

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM has a low moving into the NW Caribbean next week which eventually develops out ahead of the big cold front expected to sweep through the Eastern CONUS.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM has been very consistent in developing a Western Caribbean system next week. Here is how the run ends at 180 hours with a strong cane heading NE towards South Florida / Keys:



The FIM has been consistent in showing something as well though the point of origin seems to be different than the NAVGEM. 168 hours below:

[TheStormExpert]

I'll believe it when the Euro shows it which will probably never happen.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: I'll believe it when the Euro shows it which will probably never happen.

I've already given up on anything forming in the Caribbean at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

Untill NHC mentions it, assume anything the GFS shows in the WCARB will get switched to EPAC at some point.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows a genesis starting in the NW Caribbean near Belize in 144 hours. The system is ejected NE out of the NW Caribbean to the NE into Florida. Let's see if the Euro joins. As bad as the GFS has been this year, I will point out the GFS sniffed out 90l before the Euro did.

Here is the 192 hour graphic before the model switches to lower resolution:

[Hammy]

As bad as the GFS has been this year, I will point out the GFS sniffed out 90l before the Euro did.

This area in particular seems to be a major trouble area with the GFS though, as it's been sniffing out systems here all season, and not one has actually formed.