possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

#81 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:47 pm

Maybe. But this feature is at the butt end of a trough, so if it forms, it will be one of those times. Without looking at the surface maps, I'm assuming Gulf 1 is currently an upper feature. We have a reverse sea breeze/land breeze thunderstorm band crossing now with thunder and lightning. I think with the rotation around the mid or upper low, you have storms forming over water and feeding into land at night. We don't typically get thunderstorms at 10:30pm in the summer without a triggering mechanism. Other than the lightning and the storms feeding in from the east (as opposed to southeast) outside feels tropical. Barometric pressure is lower than it has been by a good bit but maybe not so low to think anything nearby is close to the surface yet. Jmo

tropicwatch · #82 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:17 pm

Water vapor imagery center GOM that has some dry air but the 850mb vorticity keeps increasing.

Are they both close to the surface?

LaBreeze · #83 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:11 am

Senobia wrote:I don't think there is enough of this left over water to develop.

That said, we had some crazy winds blow through SETX this evening...I mean crazy winds.

Same here, Senobia. We had these storms move through around 5:00 p.m. and the lightning and winds were ferocious. Ended up receiving close to 2 inches of rain. Crazy winds indeed.

#84 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:57 am

Is mentioned at 8 AM TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

#85 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:01 am

Live IR. Some spin might be evident.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-91&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20

tropicwatch · #86 Postby **tropicwatch** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:39 am

This is something you don't see everyday, covers a massive area.

#87 Postby **greg_kfdm_tv** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:45 am

A weak low appears to be located about 100 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana (1012mb). Some rotation on KLIX and KLCH radars. Winds on oil platforms northeast of the low are in the 20-25 knot range. Bear in mind this is around 100 feet or more off the water.

#88 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:07 am

Good morning, Greg. I can see a very weak spin in the obs south of Morgan City, but about 200 miles offshore. Winds are very light in the northern Gulf, with the exception of near SE LA behind the weak cold front. Development is unlikely, but the system will result in increased daytime storms across the Texas coast over the next few days. I think we have to watch the SW Caribbean by this weekend for something to materialize that could develop in the Gulf next week. Labor Day weekend is coming up and I almost NEVER have a storm-free Labor Day weekend.

#89 Postby **greg_kfdm_tv** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:15 am

Good morning, Chris. Just noticed that platform KGHB (27.83 north and 91.99 west) has a west wind at 6 knots. However, it could be locally enhanced by convection near the platform. Would love to see some rain at my place...very dry....only 1 inch this month.

#90 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:22 am

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Good morning, Chris. Just noticed that platform KGHB (27.83 north and 91.99 west) has a west wind at 6 knots. However, it could be locally enhanced by convection near the platform. Would love to see some rain at my place...very dry....only 1 inch this month.

Not much convection at all in the Gulf, and little time before it all moves inland. Rain maker for TX/LA, but nothing more, most likely. I'm at just about 7" for August after measuring 8" in July. You can have my rain this week.

#91 Postby **drezee** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:43 am

drezee Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:34 pm wrote:Right now it is nothing by outflow boundaries...
The only hope is the NW corner which might feedback over time if it doesn't also collapse

The NW part indeed survived the onslaught of outflow boundaries. Wxman57, I agree there isn't much time. The Euro hinted at the GOM system next week and it makes sense given the orientation of the Atlantic ridge. I actually think the beginnings of the system is over SA right now at about 5N 65W...

TexWx · #92 Postby **TexWx** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:02 am

What was Alicia, about 300 miles south of Mississippi when it got started?

#93 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:08 am

TexWx wrote:What was Alicia, about 300 miles south of Mississippi when it got started?

South of Louisiana when it finally spun up.

Senobia · #94 Postby **Senobia** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:41 am

The Gulf of Mexico is worth watching
In the Gulf of Mexico, heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished since Monday along a weak cold front stretching from South Florida to the Louisiana coastal waters. Some models show a weak area of low pressure developing along this front and moving westwards over Texas by Friday, and we should keep an eye on this region for development.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2776

I don't understand what they are 'developing'. Is it this area I circled in green? If so, is this really going to stay offshore until Friday, as they suggest? Seems like an awfully long time.

Satellite image from a few minutes ago

#95 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:45 am

I wasn't going to bring up Alicia because I really don't intend to make any comparison of impact between this system and that one, but since we're here:

When did the potential of a strong storm get noticed by our meteorologists and forecast models in 1983, and has anyone seen how well today's computer models might forsee Alicia in a historical simulation?

#96 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:48 am

wxman57 wrote:
greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Good morning, Chris. Just noticed that platform KGHB (27.83 north and 91.99 west) has a west wind at 6 knots. However, it could be locally enhanced by convection near the platform. Would love to see some rain at my place...very dry....only 1 inch this month.

Not much convection at all in the Gulf, and little time before it all moves inland. Rain maker for TX/LA, but nothing more, most likely. I'm at just about 7" for August after measuring 8" in July. You can have my rain this week.

We'll gladly take your rain here in south central Texas, wxman57. Send plenty please. :wink:

#97 Postby **blazess556** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:04 am

Looks like we may have AF 304 investigating the disturbance in the Gulf.

TeamPlayersBlue · #98 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:08 am

I leave town for ONE MINUTE. Im in Canada till Thursday. Real odds of something popping up? That wind shear map above looked crazy. Wind field is massive. Is it all upper level energy or what? Sorry been out of the loop for almost a week. Also, going to Junction on Friday for Opening of Dove season and as my friends trusted meteorologist, they expect me to tell them if anything major like this were to dampen our plans a bit

davidiowx · #99 Postby **davidiowx** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:08 am

blazess556 wrote:Looks like we may have AF 304 investigating the disturbance in the Gulf.

yep it sure does. Will be interesting to see what they say

Hurricaneman · #100 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:12 am

blazess556 wrote:Looks like we may have AF 304 investigating the disturbance in the Gulf.

based on that shouldn't this be an invest or am I losing it and while this looks good and all its problem will be space as it will not have a lot of time to do much

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possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

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