Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What does the shear environment look like around that time? Anything with a broad spin in the GOM can blow up.

[cycloneye]

North of Panama it begins.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875098332779208710

[RL3AO]

You can really see how the GFS amplifies the tropical wave as it approaches the Yucatan. I'm guessing with the amount of convection that will be firing along the monsoon trough and over Central America, the models are really struggling with focusing how/when/where the consolidation will occur.

[cycloneye]

Now GFS paralell goes bullish and to the north GOM coast.

[JtSmarts]

GFS-Para looks to be in agreement with Crazy Uncle CMC.

[Hurricaneman]

I personally can't either rule out no development or even a hurricane, and anywhere from Florida to Mexico is still in play and I say Florida due to the Canadian, Navgem and GFS parallel is showing that solution while the Euro is showing extreme south Texas and Mexico

[Hurricaneman]

GFS-Para looks to be in agreement with Crazy Uncle CMC.

Can't rule out that solution for the main reason is nothing has developed yet

[Steve]

Now GFS paralell goes bullish and to the north GOM coast.

That's only slightly west of the CMC 12z which is a county or so farther eastward. That solution looks like the result of a break in any blocking ridging across the northern Gulf. CMC has shown a continental front as the drawing up mechanism. Super plausible. And though it's rare that any surface runs of CMC are the first of the global runs to sniff out likely end games, it does happen from time to time. I still think something washing out in the BoC is the most reasonable guess.

[weathaguyry]

8PM TWO, bumped up to 0%/30%

2. A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula by the
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ronjon]

NHC starting to hedge their bets with the TWO wording.... "moving NW to the southern GOM." Have to watch the evolution here. GFS and CMC want to form a piece of vorticity and move it north. Not sure if this is spurious convective feedback or a true trend in the guidance .

[Hammy]

Situation is getting interesting, with the GFS/Euro being less bullish, seeming to show it getting squashed by the trades, with GEM/GFS-Para showing development. Given how poorly the models handle the monsoon trough this time of year, I'm betting on nothing forming, and personally would've kept the development chances as-is if not lower them.

[Cpv17]

When and if we get a closed low on this thing, the models should do a much better job of where this thing will go.

[tailgater]

The TPW should be a interesting watch over the next week or so.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[floridasun78]

i want see area storm form before i say models are right right now Caribbean have limit storm i heard few say tropical wave in east Caribbean could be big player let see how work out here in south fl we expect weather from that wave

[ronjon]

18z NAVGEM on board with eastern GOM storm moving northward.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017061418&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=178

[Steve]

18z NAVGEM on board with eastern GOM storm moving northward.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017061418&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=178

That run really doesn't let the energy pile up at the CA Coast and Yucatan. It just comes up and sort of heads NNW then N and then is probably on its way to either getting pulled up by the front the Canadian has been showing for a while, or that front washes out and bets are off. This is approaching +/- 27N 85.5/86W and almost due south of Cape San Blas at the 6 day period which is valid 1:00pm CDT Tuesday at 999mb. The Canadian has been liking Gulf and Franklin Counties.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Paralell has a big shift east, with a 1005mb tropical storm making landfall over the LA/MS border.

[Hammy]

12z Euro Paralell has a big shift east, with a 1005mb tropical storm making landfall over the LA/MS border.

So GFS-Para could be on to something.

[caneman]

Based on the poor performances of the GFS and Euro thus far, I'm not willing to so easily discount other models.
Oh and good to back all.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Paralell has a big shift east, with a 1005mb tropical storm making landfall over the LA/MS border.

So GFS-Para could be on to something.

Not sure, as the GFS and Euro Paralells have been flip flopping. Those two will replace the current GFS and Euro models and have been questionable as best unfortunately.