Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)
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HoustonFrog
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Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
GFS 18z has this a lot stronger.... turns into 989mb storm and hits south Texas then rides literally straight up Texas coast straight through Houston as a 997mb storm. Lowest I see is 982mb
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
HoustonFrog wrote:GS 18z has this a lot stronger.... turns into 989mb storm and hits south Texas then rides literally straight up Texas coast straight through Houston as a 997mb storm. Lowest I see is 982mb
Galveston County and the Southern half of Harris County would get sustained TS force winds if that happens would not be good.....
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HoustonFrog
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
IcyTundra wrote:HoustonFrog wrote:GS 18z has this a lot stronger.... turns into 989mb storm and hits south Texas then rides literally straight up Texas coast straight through Houston as a 997mb storm. Lowest I see is 982mb
Galveston County and the Southern half of Harris County would get sustained TS force winds if that happens would not be good.....
Also more in-line with what Euro showed…
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Welp, I might get dry slotted from this one. Still a long ways to go.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
It follows the upper ridge into the central TX coast with high mid-level moisture.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
xironman wrote:
It follows the upper ridge into the central TX coast with high mid-level moisture.
And puts a tropical storm on top of Houston.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Cpv17 wrote:Welp, I might get dry slotted from this one. Still a long ways to go.
Yep looks like El Campo and most of Wharton County would only get 4-5 inches of rain if the GFS verifies.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
IcyTundra wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Welp, I might get dry slotted from this one. Still a long ways to go.
Yep looks like El Campo and most of Wharton County would only get 4-5 inches of rain if the GFS verifies.
If I can get that I’ll gladly take it. I just think there’s a possibility models could trend even further east.
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Stormcenter
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Just to note, per models this disturbance was suppose to
move into Mexico and be their problem. Now models have it riding the coast northward. I don’t like the trend here at all.
move into Mexico and be their problem. Now models have it riding the coast northward. I don’t like the trend here at all.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
I guess the interesting thing at this point is that we don't even have a definite center so who knows how the models will change. And the crazier part is that we only have a few days until impact. This season has been nuts.
And having no wxman would normally be comforting but in this case maybe he's pulling his hair out.
And having no wxman would normally be comforting but in this case maybe he's pulling his hair out.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
A quick spinup into a hurricane kind would kind of remind me of Humberto in 2007 expect that made landfall on the Bolivar Peninsula. Was pretty much the exact same time of year too.
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ouragans
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
It should be an Invest once it reaches Southern GoMex.
GENESIS033, AL, L, , , , , 76, 2021, DB, O, 2021091000, 9999999999, , 033, , , , GENESIS, , AL762021
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Clearcloudz
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Craters
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
This sure looks like a lot of dry air ahead of it to me...
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Clearcloudz
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
HoustonFrog wrote:GFS 18z has this a lot stronger.... turns into 989mb storm and hits south Texas then rides literally straight up Texas coast straight through Houston as a 997mb storm. Lowest I see is 982mb
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210910/66ac266867194caae3e981b41e12bf43.gif
Damn, I hope people in Houston are paying attention because it is the weekend a lot of people may not be thinking about a storm coming in monday and tuesday. Joe Bastardi was talking on twitter that he believes this could be a big storm for texas and that he will be traveling down here to chase it.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1436403360861655043
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1436042775515041799
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
I think somewhere between Campeche and the buoy for development
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Craters wrote:This sure looks like a lot of dry air ahead of it to me...
https://i.ibb.co/wctQJpD/Dryair.jpg
True, but I don't think it is very wise to trust any storm that forms in the Gulf at the climatological peak of the season.
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Clearcloudz
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
IcyTundra wrote:Craters wrote:This sure looks like a lot of dry air ahead of it to me...
https://i.ibb.co/wctQJpD/Dryair.jpg
True, but I don't think it is very wise to trust any storm that forms in the Gulf at the climatological peak of the season.
It also is showing that models cannot be trusted in the 5 day window anymore either.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Clearcloudz wrote:IcyTundra wrote:Craters wrote:This sure looks like a lot of dry air ahead of it to me...
https://i.ibb.co/wctQJpD/Dryair.jpg
True, but I don't think it is very wise to trust any storm that forms in the Gulf at the climatological peak of the season.
It also is showing that models cannot be trusted in the 5 day window anymore either.
I mean there's no defined center so this isn't all that unbelievable.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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