2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Weather150]

Waves starting to come off at higher latitudes than they were 2-3 weeks ago, the progression northward is happening.

[NDG]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/887430357255106560[/weet]

Those graphics line up well with CIMSS charts - except in the Caribbean, where westerly shear remains pretty vicious.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the Caribbean for this time of the year, if ENSO does indeed go more neutral during the heart of the hurricane season shear should continue to go down.

[TheStormExpert]

I know this is the new GFS but I do hope it is wrong about it's days 12-16 wind shear anomaly, that looks to be at least 75% of the North Atlantic basin with above average wind shear.

[RL3AO]

I know this is the new GFS but I do hope it is wrong about it's days 12-16 wind shear anomaly, that looks to be at least 75% of the North Atlantic basin with above average wind shear.

Like we've talked about all day in this thread. The Atlantic is going to be a grave yard the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

It dosen't work like a switch that instantly waves begin to develop on August 1rst.Is a normal proccess that the atmosphere has that eventually we will have things to track during the peak period.

[Weather150]

It dosen't work like a switch that instantly waves begin to develop on August 1rst.Is a normal proccess that the atmosphere has that eventually we will have things to track during the peak period.

It takes time for the atmosphere to transition and adjust.

[AutoPenalti]

I know this is the new GFS but I do hope it is wrong about it's days 12-16 wind shear anomaly, that looks to be at least 75% of the North Atlantic basin with above average wind shear.

http://i64.tinypic.com/5wca9u.png

The funny thing is...it's not.

Next week onward until about August 10th is when it will be completely shut down.

[weathaguyry]

Honestly, this time with no activity will probably let the water get really warm, since there is no convection stirring it up, it should get pretty warm, and may provide more energy for August

[Weather150]

Honestly, this time with no activity will probably let the water get really warm, since there is no convection stirring it up, it should get pretty warm, and may provide more energy for August

That is true, the Gulf and Caribbean just going to get warmer and warmer.

[Weather150]

Storms that flipped the "switch" over the past few years and started the train going.
2016: Fiona- Aug 16th
2015: Danny- Aug 18th
2014: Cristobal- Aug 23rd
2013: Erin- Aug 15th
2012: Ernesto- Aug 1st

[Yellow Evan]

The switch was never flipped in 2013.

[CFLHurricane]

The switch was never flipped in 2013.

I was just thinking this in the back of my cynical mind.

Then again 2013 is as rare an occurrence as the most hyperactive seasons.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The switch was never flipped in 2013.

True the "lid" never came off that season. Although I do think that this season will be similar towards 2016 and the lid will definitely come off when mid-August begins.

[Hammy]

Going back some distance, I've noticed it's common for August to either have a decent amount of activity at the start, a lull in the middle, followed by another burst of activity at the end (2016 as an example) or be almost or entirely quiet for the first three weeks (2010 being a recent example.) Even 1995, despite having Felix lasting two weeks, nothing new formed the entire middle third of the month.

[Weather150]

The switch was never flipped in 2013.

It technically was, it is just the storms were weaker than normal, put the pace of storms picked up after Erin.

[tarheelprogrammer]

How long until season cancel posts are legit?

[AutoPenalti]

How long until season cancel posts are legit?

Probably between now and now, me first...

SEASON CANCELLED!

[dexterlabio]

How long until season cancel posts are legit?

Season cancel posts are only taken seriously in as late as October. The saying "never say never" is real, even during the Super El Nino year 2015.

[Hammy]

Another massive outbreak of monsoonal convection off of Africa at the moment. The MDR has actually had very few low-convection days this season so far, which is quite a difference from the last several in the earlier part of the season.

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
JMA: Pulses of enhanced convection across the Atlantic are probable during August- those with tropical interests should monitor closely.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/887991719492337664