2016 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

EPAC soon to become active again. What are the models showing for these two areas?

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF both call for multiple systems in the next 10 days.

Model site- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[hurricanes1234]

Talk about impending activity.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, extending
from several hundred miles south through southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, is associated with a trough of
low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the early or middle part of next week while this system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is centered a few
hundred miles west of Costa Rica. Upper-level winds are
expected to become conducive for development in a couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next
week while this system moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[talkon]

06z GFS shows lots of activity ahead with 2 (maybe 3) storms in EPAC and another 2 in CPAC in 10 days, however most are weak TD/TS.
00z Euro also agrees, showing lots of weak TS.

[hurricanes1234]

I was wondering if the area south of Central America could become stronger since it's begun its development further east and so has more time over warm water. Thoughts anyone?

[hurricanes1234]

This thread has been super dead since long before Matthew.

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. This disturbed weather is
expected to slowly consolidate during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[talkon]

00z GFS strangely dropped everything to TD (except a cane in CPAC), but Euro still shows 5 storms.
Also I wonder why there isn't even an invest yet.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS strangely dropped everything to TD (except a cane in CPAC), but Euro still shows 5 storms.
Also I wonder why there isn't even an invest yet.

Due to the fact the models are super bipolar of late.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and shower activity located a few hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a
weak low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to
generally be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves west-
northwestward well to the southwest of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[hurricanes1234]

The area to the east of 98E has much more time over warm water.

Let's see if it can develop and strengthen, provided conditions are otherwise favourable as well.

[hurricanes1234]

Down to 60% in five days. Like 98E it's struggling for some unknown reason.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a
weak low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the weekend while the low moves westward well to the
southwest of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[wxmann_91]

^It almost seems as if the subsidence shifted from the Atlantic to the EPAC the latter half of this season.

[euro6208]

The EPAC is so quiet it seems like the big outbreak they had earlier this year like it was years ago.

[Yellow Evan]

Globals seem to be moving the MJO too fast.

[hurricanes1234]

With the possible failure of 99E to develop as well, I'm starting to wonder if the season is nearing its end. I mean it's too early to say for sure but if we don't get anything in the next two or three weeks, IMO it's unlikely the basin will get active again after that.

[HurricaneRyan]

1995 was the last time the season ended in September. 2010 technically ended in September, until the out of nowhere December CPAC storm happened.

It's not impossible

[Hurricanehink]

With the possible failure of 99E to develop as well, I'm starting to wonder if the season is nearing its end. I mean it's too early to say for sure but if we don't get anything in the next two or three weeks, IMO it's unlikely the basin will get active again after that.

Don't forget 2002. There was nearly a month period with no storms from September 26-October 22, when Hurricane Kenna formed and became a Category 5 two days later. The hurricane season goes all the way until November 30th.

[dexterlabio]

Even if the EPAC hurricane season ends today, 2016 already counts as a normal season in terms of ACE, am I right?

[hurricanes1234]

Even if the EPAC hurricane season ends today, 2016 already counts as a normal season in terms of ACE, am I right?

Actually it's current ACE is 40 units above the seasonal average. So it'll count as an above-average season for sure.

If we get a really strong hurricane later this month, it's possible we could reach or be near the 200 mark.

[Yellow Evan]

A late season lull isn't as rare as one may think. We just really haven't had one in a long time (since 2010). 1984/85 had strong finishes in the Atlantic and solid West Pacific seasons, yet had fairly slow late seasons in others insanely active seasons.