LarryWx wrote:Kingarabian wrote:LarryWx wrote:
With 3.4 having warmed back up to +0.5 for last week and with signs of further warming being evident, I see almost no way that June as a whole will end up at the +0.2 of the POAMA. It looks more like +0.4 to +0.6 is likely. Currently it's near +0.5 MTD. So, that means POAMA's near La Nina down the road is in even more in question.
June will end up with a -SOI for June. Currently it is at -11 MTD. I'm now roughly estimating June of 2017's SOI comes in at -7 based on these SOI's guesstimates:
6/20: -4; 6/21: -2; 6/22: -5; 6/23 -10; 6/24: +4 (would stop -SOI streak at an impressive 23 days); 6/25; +19; 6/26: +8; 6/27: +1; 6/28: +3; 6/29; 6/30: -3
A -7 in June is of no more than moderate significance as far as El Nino prospects are concerned. A -7 (or lower) in July, especially following a -7 in June, would be of much more significance as far as El Nino's chances are concerned.
Based on these same projections, Darwin's SLP for June will come in near 1013.4. This is above the longterm average of 1012.9 for all ENSO and is actually near the longterm average for strong Nino's. Weaker ones have averaged only near 1013.0. However, I've already determined that a 1014 was needed for strong statistical significance as far as El Nino prospects are concerned.
In summary, whereas there is some El Nino leaning for this year based on June of 2017's SOI and Nino 3.4 SST anomalies, I feel that we really need to see how July is going to be SOIwise to get a real good feel.
Good post, Larry. Although I'm sure your analysis was based on the 12Z Euro, I see a considerably negative SOI compared to the numbers you posted. Here are the pressures I derived from the 00z Euro:
Note: I rounded the Darwin pressure down and the Tahiti pressures up to remove any bias, and to account for the raw pressures coming in higher at Tahiti and lower @ Darwin.Code: Select all
00z Euro Pressures June 20 2017
Hr: Darwin Tahiti
24 1015 1013
48 1015 1010
72 1014 1012
96 1013.50 1013
120 1013.50 1013.50
144 1014.50 1013
168 1015 1013
192 1015 1012.50
216 1016 1012
240 1016 1012.50
After 120hrs confidence is lower in MSLP forecasts no matter what model is used, but we can say with confidence that the SOI should be more negative than positive in at least the next 3 days.
Thanks, King. There is a problem with using just the 24 hour pressure progs you presented because they are fully based on 0Z each day. 0Z is both near the highest SLP of the day at Darwin as well as near the lowest SLP of the day at Tahiti. So, using only 0Z biases the SOI progs far in the -SOI direction for those two reasons (probably on the order of -22 to -25). That's why the 24 hour progs based on the 12Z Euro run are always going to look less bullish for a -SOI overall than that for the adjacent 0Z run. IF you must use just 24 hour progs, the 12Z run will almost always be closer to reality than the 0Z run. (A much more minor point is that I averaged the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Euro as opposed to just the 12Z Euro. By the way, I averaged over 6 hour intervals.)
But if LongPaddock uses 24 hr averages, shouldn't it be fine to do the same with the models? Or they're not reliable past 12hrs?
For 6/20, LongPaddock came in with -7, 1012.53 at Tahiti, 1012.25 at Darwin.
So taking a look at the pressures at Tahiti from the high resolution Euro which has 6hr intervals,
+6hr = 1015
+12hr = 1013.4
+18hr = 1016
+24hr = 1013
Looking at the past three days as well, +12 and +24 line up very closely with +12 occasionally coming slightly higher.