2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

GFS did drop Gilma and 9E for a while until it formed. Not time to lose all hope.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro much weaker as well on the 0/30 system. Strongest one is now the UKMET down to 999mb @ hour 144. We'll see how this ends up.

00z Euro and GFS now develop 93E.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF weaker but also has this moving more slowly.

[storminabox]

Incredible.

GFS backing off development now. Absolutely despicable.

I honestly can’t say that I’m surprised. Models have performed terribly this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

GFS is back!!

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Let's have a mini poll.

Two important questions.

1- Will August make up from the lack of July activity/ACE and be a very active month?
2- Will there be quality systems rather than weak ones?

My answers are:

1-Yes
2-Yes.

[hurricanes1234]

Let's have a mini poll.

Two important questions.

1- Will August make up from the lack of July activity/ACE and be a very active month?
2- Will there be quality systems rather than weak ones?

My answers are:

1-Yes
2-Yes.

I'm not too sure August will be very active. Maybe average at best. I think by the end of August we may still be at an ACE deficit.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
The Eastern Pacific saw very weak Tropical Storm Gilma -- for only hours -- but models show 2 areas of interest over the next 10-days. Another Gilma type storm & something more intense off the coast of Mexico.

The Eastern Pacific season started out gangbusters but has tired.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1023963563956813824

[Yellow Evan]

Let's have a mini poll.

Two important questions.

1- Will August make up from the lack of July activity/ACE and be a very active month?
2- Will there be quality systems rather than weak ones?

My answers are:

1-Yes
2-Yes.

I'm not too sure August will be very active. Maybe average at best. I think by the end of August we may still be at an ACE deficit.

It's likely we see a bit of a ramp up, whether it perfectly aligns with the calendar month of August remains to be seen, but I do not think it's as sensible as it may appear without thinking too deeply to expect a quiet August or September solely based on a quiet July.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is on gradual mode with the twins and no Baja threat.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[storminabox]

Let's have a mini poll.

Two important questions.

1- Will August make up from the lack of July activity/ACE and be a very active month?
2- Will there be quality systems rather than weak ones?

My answers are:

1-Yes
2-Yes.

I'm not too sure August will be very active. Maybe average at best. I think by the end of August we may still be at an ACE deficit.

It's likely we see a bit of a ramp up, whether it perfectly aligns with the calendar month of August remains to be seen, but I do not think it's as sensible as it may appear without thinking too deeply to expect a quiet August or September solely based on a quiet July.

It is kind of hard to tell. Until the eastern pacific is able to break out of this unfavorable pattern that has been in place throughout the month of July, which it is showing no signs of doing yet, I think things will remain generally pretty quiet. The models have shown plenty of powerful systems in the long range throughout this month, however none of them have been able to get their act together and actually develop. We’ll see if these next two systems that the models have been fairly bullish with are actually able to develop into something significant and end this quiet pattern, but given how terribly the models have performed over the last several weeks in the Epac, I wouldn’t be so sure. Things have to wake up eventually though.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not too sure August will be very active. Maybe average at best. I think by the end of August we may still be at an ACE deficit.

It's likely we see a bit of a ramp up, whether it perfectly aligns with the calendar month of August remains to be seen, but I do not think it's as sensible as it may appear without thinking too deeply to expect a quiet August or September solely based on a quiet July.

It is kind of hard to tell. Until the eastern pacific is able to break out of this unfavorable pattern that has been in place throughout the month of July, which it is showing no signs of doing yet, I think things will remain generally pretty quiet. The models have shown plenty of powerful systems in the long range throughout this month, however none of them have been able to get their act together and actually develop. We’ll see if these next two systems that the models have been fairly bullish with are actually able to develop into something significant and end this quiet pattern, but given how terribly the models have performed over the last several weeks in the Epac, I wouldn’t be so sure. Things have to wake up eventually though.

Given that the more favorable conditions I posted below is a thing after a week later in the CFS, there are signs the EPAC will be waking up. And it's equally as easy for a basin to wake up as it shuts down; there are countless numbers of seasons that had solid stretches of inactivity and then wake up fairly quickly.

CFS is showing lower shear for August 5-12 period as time goes by. And given that it's not merely pushing the timeframe back (see below) this seems credible.

[cycloneye]

Euro continues with the close call to Baja on the 12z run.

[Kingarabian]

It's likely we see a bit of a ramp up, whether it perfectly aligns with the calendar month of August remains to be seen, but I do not think it's as sensible as it may appear without thinking too deeply to expect a quiet August or September solely based on a quiet July.

It is kind of hard to tell. Until the eastern pacific is able to break out of this unfavorable pattern that has been in place throughout the month of July, which it is showing no signs of doing yet, I think things will remain generally pretty quiet. The models have shown plenty of powerful systems in the long range throughout this month, however none of them have been able to get their act together and actually develop. We’ll see if these next two systems that the models have been fairly bullish with are actually able to develop into something significant and end this quiet pattern, but given how terribly the models have performed over the last several weeks in the Epac, I wouldn’t be so sure. Things have to wake up eventually though.

Given that the more favorable conditions I posted below is a thing after a week later in the CFS, there are signs the EPAC will be waking up. And it's equally as easy for a basin to wake up as it shuts down; there are countless numbers of seasons that had solid stretches of inactivity and then wake up fairly quickly.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/dGv4WoF.png[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/A6mLfdn.png[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/e5ifEMv.png[img]

CFS is showing lower shear for August 5-12 period as time goes by. And given that it's not merely pushing the timeframe back (see below) this seems credible.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Kdu0nTp.png[img]

[cycloneye]

Gradual is the key word.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kazmit]

00z GFS much weaker, and drops storm #2.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS much weaker, and drops storm #2.

00z Euro more bullish as well as the UKMET. Let's see what the GFS has.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS much weaker, and drops storm #2.

00z Euro more bullish as well as the UKMET. Let's see what the GFS has.

Guess what,06z run has the twins again.