Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Alyono]

looks like a borderline cat3/4 on the windfields

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Cat 3?

Nope, Cat.4

[RL3AO]

GFS seems to be focusing in on the Caribbean the past 3 or 4 runs.

[Hammy]

GFS seems to be focusing in on the Caribbean the past 3 or 4 runs.

I think we're finally starting to get in time range that we'd be seeing consistency with the model runs, it's almost in the same position on the most recent few.

[stormreader]

Since we're all still within the realm of speculation and possibilities, I would like to add that a West Carribean/Yuc Channel storm in the time frame of Sept 29-Oct 4 is a dangerous storm historically for the La Coast.
1893 Chenere Caminade Storm. Approx 2,000 drowned in 16 ft storm surge SE La coast in powerful hurricane landfall Oct 1-2.
1915 Sept 29 SE La coast. Pressure in New Orleans measured at 28.01. Winds along coast eat at 140 mph.
1964 Oct 3 Hilda makes landfall on S Central La Coast near Franklin. Cat 3 at landfall. Many killed away from center in tornados.
2002 Lilli Oct 3 landfall near Vermillion Bay in SW La. Storm mercifully fell apart in 24 hours before landfall dropping from Cat 4 down to 90 mph Cat 1, leading some to think that N GOM storms must weaken considerably before el landfall (a dangerous and unproven proposition).
All of these storms were in the Yuc Channel area around Oct 1. All were at Cat 4 strength in the GOM, and all found their way to the La Coast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/779761280819138560

[KWT]

121kts....wow that is an impressive hurricane and its location has produced some real humdingers and you could well believe a cat 4/5 in that area.

[jason1912]

NAVGEM is north

[CourierPR]

NAVGEM is north

Can you give us a link or be more specific?

[stormlover2013]

Lol navgem worse than Cmc

[weatherwindow]

121kts....wow that is an impressive hurricane and its location has produced some real humdingers and you could well believe a cat 4/5 in that area.

121 knots is at 850 millibars/ 1500 meters not at the surface / 10 meters....Rich.... boundary layer to the surface should be a roughly 10% reduction...so a mid-level Cat 3/120-125 mph

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/779770612051042304

[RickM]

I guess I will be canceling my trip to Cayman.

[Alyono]

looks like the UKMET has a very strong hurricane for Aruba

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like this pouch is organizing nicely even though the convection is scattered, the area is at 10N 30W

[abajan]

I guess I will be canceling my trip to Cayman.

Possibly. And they may need to add another board to this signpost at Rum Point on Grand Cayman.

[N2FSU]

:uarrow: Cat 3?

[Alyono]

:uarrow: Cat 3?

pressure has nothing to do with SS category

[blp]

Oh boy. The 12z HWRF shows what looks like a Hurricane for the islands. Lots of models now showing strong system for LA.

[AtlanticWind]

The only storm I could find in history entering as at least a depression into carribean as late as this in sept.and forming to a major hurricane
was Flora 1963