2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

And closer to Baja.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wouldn't be surprised if this became the strongest tropical cyclone so far this year based on the upper-level environment forecast by the GFS coupled with SSTs of 29-31C and high OHC. The disturbance is getting a boost from a CCKW now as well.

[Yellow Evan]

And closer to Baja.

Further way from California though.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave over Central America is expected to move westward
and cause the formation of a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday. Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if this future storm deserves a separate thread? Such is extremely rare for a Pacific storm...but it is getting attention

[cycloneye]

I wonder if this future storm deserves a separate thread? Such is extremely rare for a Pacific storm...but it is getting attention

We can continue here until the invest comes and then we migrate to that one.

[Yellow Evan]

Depending on the model trends I think we could see something like a Rich of 2009 before it weakens as it gets close to the the coast.

I say Rich because that thing was huge. And so is this storm in the GFS forecast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

Rich? It was Rick in 2009.

It reminds me a bit of Rick in how aggressive models were and how favorable of an environment it was in. I see no reason why we can't see a Cat 3. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if this future storm deserves a separate thread? Such is extremely rare for a Pacific storm...but it is getting attention

I see no reason to make a separate thread. I'd rather just keep it in here.

[Ntxw]

It would be a good way to top off the season with a storm like Rick given how the EPAC has been. Certainly could be a major system with such a strong KW. EPAC is overdue for a cat 5 and this season just seems like it's imminent.

[Yellow Evan]

Euro aggressive as well



UKMET bombs this out by day 5.



HWRF calls for an 80 knt hurricane in a little over Day 5.

[Yellow Evan]

It would be a good way to top off the season with a storm like Rick given how the EPAC has been. Certainly could be a major system with such a strong KW. EPAC is overdue for a cat 5 and this season just seems like it's imminent.

Last El Nino non-Modoki season without a Cat 5 was in the early 90's and that time frame and earlier was just less reliable in general.

[cycloneye]

Is not common to have a 0/70 future area meaning it will be something big and fun to track as long it doesn't stray closer to the coast or Baja.

[Yellow Evan]

Is not common to have a 0/70 future area meaning it will be something big and fun to track as long it doesn't stray closer to the coast or Baja.

I've never seen anything higher than 0/60.

[Kingarabian]

Depending on the model trends I think we could see something like a Rich of 2009 before it weakens as it gets close to the the coast.

I say Rich because that thing was huge. And so is this storm in the GFS forecast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

Rich? It was Rick in 2009.

It reminds me a bit of Rick in how aggressive models were and how favorable of an environment it was in. I see no reason why we can't see a Cat 3. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My bad. Thanks for the storm name correction, as usual .

[Kingarabian]

I made a thread.

[Yellow Evan]

I made a thread.

Here

[cycloneye]

After thinking about it,I think considering the high expectations for a future system very high and NHC having a 0/70 future area,in this case the new thread can be up.

[TheStormExpert]

The 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season continues to amaze me, this IMO is looking like it has a chance to become the E. Pacific version of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season with their also being a possibility of us reaching the Greek Alphabet! Has that ever happened before on the E. Pacific side?

[Yellow Evan]

The 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season continues to amaze me, this IMO is looking like it has a chance to become the E. Pacific version of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season with their also being a possibility of us reaching the Greek Alphabet! Has that ever happened before on the E. Pacific side?

No.

In 1983, we reached the W name. In October of 1985, we did as well. Shortly thereafter, the EPHC added emergency X, Y, and Z names, which are still in use today. We reached X in 1985, and Z in 1992.

[Yellow Evan]