2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

Nada.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Twisted-core]

GFS 006z surface wind & mslp @ 174hr tamed to a borderline cat1


https://imgur.com/G10g1wE

[Ian2401]

Doesn't it seem a little weird that the NHC hasn't at least highlighted an area for development at this point? I know they put most of their stock in the Euro, but with many of the other major models showing development in the short term, I would expect at least some kind of mention.

[robbielyn]

Doesn't it seem a little weird that the NHC hasn't at least highlighted an area for development at this point? I know they put most of their stock in the Euro, but with many of the other major models showing development in the short term, I would expect at least some kind of mention.

especially since the gfs was the first to sniff out alberto. but i guess they want the Euro to at least hint some development before they jump on board.

[crm6360]

Model-to-model runs are showing improving conditions for intensification at CONUS landfall.
Particularly, mid-level moisture and 355K PV.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2nvuik3.png

http://i68.tinypic.com/2njhfew.png

There are a million factors for tropical development and you seem to only toot the seldom used PV horn in every thread. It’s kind of cute.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
If a model has 52 straight runs ( 13 days, 4x a day) with a storm hitting the gulf coast every 6-10 day period it is not a great if it hits one, Besides with the MJO coming into favorable phases and the Euro seeing western gulf lighting up, that is where I am looking,

[Steve H.]

@BigJoeBastardi
If a model has 52 straight runs ( 13 days, 4x a day) with a storm hitting the gulf coast every 6-10 day period it is not a great if it hits one, Besides with the MJO coming into favorable phases and the Euro seeing western gulf lighting up, that is where I am looking,

Thank you captain obvious. I do like Joe's passion though.

[SFLcane]

3000 runs with GFS showing all kinds of tc’s. Either way this isn’t a FL problem and IF something develops we’ll likely be on the subsidence side.

[ROCK]

borderline Cat 1 into San Luis would put most of Houston in the right front quadrant.. Navgem still biting on WGOM next week.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Little day to day change for the area with high pressure to our WNW and varying degrees of moisture each day resulting in slightly differing coverage of thunderstorms.

Deep pool of moisture that was over the area on Saturday has shifted slightly eastward today and is located over the Sabine River Valley…still have decent moisture over the area with PWS of 1.7-1.9 inches, but a much drier air mass with PWS around 1.5 inches is pushing NNE from the lower TX coast this morning and should begin to arrive into the area this afternoon. Think best rain chances today will be along and NE of a line from College Station to Sugar Land to Galveston and may end up being east of I-45.

Fairly dry air mass is in place over the region Monday and Tuesday, but will hold 20-30% rain chances for storms that may be able to develop along the seabreeze front…probably closer to 20% than 30%.

Upper ridge never fully regains a strong hold over the area…like last week…so daily chances of seabreeze storms will continue with certain days having a better chance than others based on moisture availability.

Extended:
Main focus for the upcoming week will be the period from Friday-Monday and what is anything will attempt to develop over the central/western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave currently entering the eastern Caribbean Sea will move westward and arrive into the NW Caribbean Sea by mid to late week. High pressure building westward across the SW Atlantic and high pressure over the SW US will create a general WNW steering flow for the tropical wave to move into the central/southern/western Gulf by next weekend. Global computer models continue to show a wide range of potential solutions between models and model runs leading to little confidence on what may eventually transpire over the western Gulf. If one were to look at the overall large scale pattern indicators and not the individual models runs…there are some subtle signs that conditions over the western Gulf of Mexico will become more conducive for tropical development by next weekend. One such indicator is the MJO Phase which will be moving into a favorable pattern for rising air over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by late this week. However, much may actually hinge on what happens with developing tropical system “Bud” in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of MX and models brings this system NW along the west coast of MX and the upper level outflow from Bud could produce a belt of strong wind shear across the western Gulf late this week.

For now will go with a trough/tropical wave axis moving into the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend with maybe a broad surface low attempting to form along the wave axis which could stretch from the Bay of Campeche to the TX coast. Coordinated NHC/WPC graphics are keeping the feature an open wave at the moment. A significant surge of deep tropical moisture will accompany this feature along with a sustained tap of deep SE flow out of the western Caribbean Sea which will likely support increasing rain chances…possibly as early as Friday…but more likely Saturday onward.

Forecast uncertainty remains high for the late week/weekend period and forecast changes are likely over the coming days based on hopefully better model agreement on what may happen over the western Gulf next weekend.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Miami Discussion says the GFS needs to get another upgrade.

Late next week: long range models do not agree on the same
solution. The GFS models lifts a tropical feature north of the
Yucatan and edges it westward, away from Florida. This scenario
would eventually allow for drier air and subsidence over our
region and a decrease in shower and storm activity. The European model (ecmwf)
model, on The Hand, maintains a deep moist layer over South
Florida through Saturday or Sunday. This would allow elevated
precipitation chances to continue. Given the long range GFS seems
to be performing rather poorly lately, would be more inclined to
believe the European model (ecmwf) solution.

[galveston-d]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet but here is a link to Blake Matthew's blog that acknowledges the possibility of a weather event in the coming days for our region (I live in Galveston).
https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/blakes-blog-hurricane-headed-for-texas-next-week/285-562894003

[Aric Dunn]

well not that it is a game changer .. but the navgem finally has development too. lol.

[Aric Dunn]

Also .. there is a whole lot of rotation down in the SW carrib this morning. clear westerly winds though confined at the moment. once the monsoon lifts north models will have something to latch onto hopefully. right on cue per the GFS and CMC for the past many days..

[ronjon]

well not that it is a game changer .. but the navgem finally has development too. lol.

Not that it means much, but the NAVGEM has indicated development almost as long as the GFS. Of all the models, the ICON has been the most consistent the last 5-6 runs.

[Aric Dunn]

The NHC is following the models closely and besides a couple models and runs. the consensus is not likely nay develope until the gulf somewhere do to land interaction. The models do get the system into the gulf until friday or saturday. so we might see them mention it later tonight or tomorrow since it will be within the 5 forecast time frame by then.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON sticking to it northern gulf coast for this 12z run.

[NDG]

Miami Discussion says the GFS needs to get another upgrade.

Late next week: long range models do not agree on the same
solution. The GFS models lifts a tropical feature north of the
Yucatan and edges it westward, away from Florida. This scenario
would eventually allow for drier air and subsidence over our
region and a decrease in shower and storm activity. The European model (ecmwf)
model, on The Hand, maintains a deep moist layer over South
Florida through Saturday or Sunday. This would allow elevated
precipitation chances to continue. Given the long range GFS seems
to be performing rather poorly lately, would be more inclined to
believe the European model (ecmwf) solution.

I don't know if I agree, if it is one model that pushes the tropical feature as they called it further west has been the European.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm hoping it happens to some extent. I think Texas needs some rain just not prolonged and I need a nice weekend. Sick of rain every weekend. Want to hit the pool or the bike. Hoping for some subsidence down here.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61012&fh=6