ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Wikipedia has 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10 as Modoki El Nino's. Couldn't pull 87's data and 1991-1992/2009-2010 are very debatable that they were Modoki El Nino's.

Here's the subsurface data for 94-95, 02-03, and 04-05 events:


Here's 2018:


The 94-95, 02-03, and 04-05 events clearly had significantly more cooler waters allocated beneath Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 than 2018 has. Furthermore, Nino 1+2 needs to be at a consistent -1C/-1.5C to fit the authors definition of a Modoki El Nino, and CDAS has Nino 1+2 up to -4.0C. The GFS and the Euro also have below average trades in the far eastern Pacific as well, which will promote Nino 1+2 warming even more. So until that changes, it's going to be hard to favor a Modoki El Nino going into hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

Ignoring ENSO for a second, as relating to modoki. Atlantic spatial SST in May last year resembles 2004. 2017 and 2004 in some ways you could say had similarities. The weak ENSO one could argue was not the prevalent damager as Atlantic conditions proved overwhelming, as long as ENSO was not mod-strong

Key focus here is the spatial SST config of the North Atlantic




2018 is a bit different

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/992047252062470144

[Kingarabian]

NCDC PDO down to -0.76. Good chance JISAO keeps the PDO negative for the 2nd month in a row.

[Kingarabian]

Here's the latest 850mb wind analysis from CDAS:



Strong westerlies in the blue circle will act to strengthen the downwelling Kelvin wave and may be responsible for a WPAC TC within a week.

Westerlies in the red circle just above the equator in the CPAC and the EPAC, continue to work their way down and disrupt the trades to promote warming in Nino 3.4, 3 and 1+2.

[Ntxw]

Per the TAO/Triton buoys, I'm eyeballing a fall of Nino 3.4 this past week. Looks like down to -0.2C again is my early guess on Monday.

[Kingarabian]

Darwin has had lower pressures than what the Euro indicated in the past 3 days, thus ending the negative streak on the 30 day SOI.

From May4th-May9th we'll likely see a couple of days of sharp positives and sharp negatives. Then from May10th and onwards the Euro continues to have a negative SOI setup. Possible the SOI activity we're seeing and predicted to see is because of the MJO coming out of the circle and progressing from phase 8 into phase 1. Just to note that 2009 had a prolonged period during may of relaxed trades across the eastern Pacific during May. If the SOI goes negative and remains that way, there's a good chance we see the same thing.

[cycloneye]

I am posting this question as Hawaii is in the news as the Kilanuea volcanoe erupts.Does this event have any impact on ENSO in terms of the atmosphere being contaminated with ash and gases?

[Kingarabian]

I am posting this question as Hawaii is in the news as the Kilanuea volcanoe erupts.Does this event have any impact on ENSO in terms of the atmosphere being contaminated with ash and gases?

Well the Big Island just got rocked with a 6.9mmagnitude earthquake. There is some correlation between seismic activity and ENSO. So I guess we can say volcanic activity may play a role indirectly.

https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/ ... c-activity

[Chris90]

I am posting this question as Hawaii is in the news as the Kilanuea volcanoe erupts.Does this event have any impact on ENSO in terms of the atmosphere being contaminated with ash and gases?

Here's an interesting article I just found referencing high latitude eruptions and the effect on ENSO. I don't believe Hawaii counts as high latitude, but it might still have a similar effect. I won't try to analyze the article, I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough, but others with more knowledge might be interested in reading and giving their opinion.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... FnGeYJ_Uao


Here's another article as well: https://news.rutgers.edu/large-volcanic ... u0DZsko7qA


Seems that volcanic eruptions can help El Nino get going though. Current events in Hawaii might give the atmosphere a strong push towards Nino.

[cycloneye]

SOI continues to go down.

[LarryWx]

Due to a high for May 1014.85 Darwin SLP, today's SOI fell to nearly -25. However, Darwin SLPs will now start falling per the 0Z Euro thus leading to less negative SOIs than today's although the 30 day average should fall at least for another couple of days.

[NDG]

Weaker trade winds this week over Nino 4 has resulted in a warm up this week over the extreme western extension of Nino 3.4 but continuing easterly trade winds over Nino 3 has continued to cool the eastern extension of Nino 3.4
IMO, tomorrow's official reading will get slightly cooler than the last reading, if not stay the same.

[LarryWx]

Weaker trade winds this week over Nino 4 has resulted in a warm up this week over the extreme western extension of Nino 3.4 but continuing easterly trade winds over Nino 3 has continued to cool the eastern extension of Nino 3.4
IMO, tomorrow's official reading will get slightly cooler than the last reading, if not stay the same.

I agree based on what looks like a somewhat cooler buoy based map you just posted (that is, indeed, cooler than 0.0 in 3.4 as a whole) as well as there having just been 5 straight warming weeks. The record high is only 7. A "breather" is due. In addition, though Levi Cowan's did actually warm approximately 0.2 vs the prior week, it was still down near -0.3 for the 7 day period ending yesterday.

[Kingarabian]

We'll probably see a negative for today on the 30 day SOI, then a possible string of positives until Thursday or Friday.

Going forward, the Euro has almost a neutral to negative setup from the 11th-15th with Darwin averaging 1013.25 and Tahiti averaging 1014.25.

[Kingarabian]

I know the Euro gets a lot of slack, but for informational purposes here's the new ECMWF seasonal:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/993128928222089216

[Ptarmigan]

I know the Euro gets a lot of slack, but for informational purposes here's the new ECMWF seasonal:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/993128928222089216

We had a La Nina and the EURO forecasts an El Nino. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino produced some cold winters like 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1963-1964, 1972-1973, and 2009-2010.

[Alyono]

I know the Euro gets a lot of slack, but for informational purposes here's the new ECMWF seasonal:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/993128928222089216

Had the EXACT SAME BS last year

[NDG]

I know the Euro gets a lot of slack, but for informational purposes here's the new ECMWF seasonal:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/993128928222089216

Had the EXACT SAME BS last year

And the year before,

BTW, interesting how they now show its forecast going back to only 2017, do they not want us to see how badly it has been performing on its ENSO forecast?

[Alyono]

that's also the April and not the May forecast