ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

ONI is a trimonthly average. For example if you can get 0.3C or warmer in June, if the later end (July and/or August goes higher gradually) the average of the 3 could make it. In theory.

[Kingarabian]

Possibly the CFS WWB coming up on the GFS 850mb wind forecast:

[LarryWx]

The OHC warmed from April's +0.80 to May's +0.89:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _index.txt

I may have more to say about this later. I can already say that May warming rather than cooling increases the chance for a weak to moderate El Nino next winter. However, I still think the odds of ASO being only warm neutral are pretty high based on the May Eurosip predicting warm neutral for ASO and that model being warm biased based on 13 years of data.

[Kingarabian]

There are two reasons why there is support for a WWB in June:

1. Because there's going to be anomalous rising air associated with the MJO, a WWB can easily be generated over the eq. pacific.
2.The pressure pattern showing a negative leaning SOI setup till the 11th based on the 12z Euro run and its past runs(Tahiti avg 1014.50/Darwin avg 1013.75), supports a WWB.

Even more support for the CFS June WWB:

Today's 12z Euro shows an abrupt change in the pressure pattern. Through June 12, Darwin's pressures shot up from 1013.75 to average 1014.30 for the next 9 days, and Tahiti's pressures dropped from 1014.50 to 1014 for the same period of time. This difference in pressure if it materializes (higher over Darwin lower in Tahiti) means that the SOI will see large negative values and drop back towards El Nino threshold while increasing the chances for a potent WWB.

[WAcyclone]

There are two reasons why there is support for a WWB in June:

1. Because there's going to be anomalous rising air associated with the MJO, a WWB can easily be generated over the eq. pacific.
2.The pressure pattern showing a negative leaning SOI setup till the 11th based on the 12z Euro run and its past runs(Tahiti avg 1014.50/Darwin avg 1013.75), supports a WWB.

Even more support for the CFS June WWB:

Today's 12z Euro shows an abrupt change in the pressure pattern. Through June 12, Darwin's pressures shot up from 1013.75 to average 1014.30 for the next 9 days, and Tahiti's pressures dropped from 1014.50 to 1014 for the same period of time. This difference in pressure if it materializes (higher over Darwin lower in Tahiti) means that the SOI will see large negative values and drop back towards El Nino threshold while increasing the chances for a potent WWB.

Here's an illustration of the forecast pressures for Darwin (top) and Papeete/Tahiti (bottom) based on today's 12z ECMWF. I think this is a nice tool for judging where the SOI could be headed in the next few days. The red line represents the operational run while the blue shades indicate the range given by the EPS:


Source: weather.us

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1003451545462165504

[Ntxw]

This was my post awhile ago and it looks to be good for now.

I'm going to guess the next sig WWB event will occur near the DL sometime mid and late June. Following the movement of the MJO as well as 200hpa VP anomalies as forcing comes out of the Maritime/WPAC. Current WWB over the IO is part of this initiation.

[LarryWx]

The OHC warmed from April's +0.80 to May's +0.89:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _index.txt

I may have more to say about this later. I can already say that May warming rather than cooling increases the chance for a weak to moderate El Nino next winter. However, I still think the odds of ASO being only warm neutral are pretty high based on the May Eurosip predicting warm neutral for ASO and that model being warm biased based on 13 years of data.

Further to the above:

Warmest May OHC anomaly back to 1979/Later ENSO peak/May SOI

+2.01 1997 lead to strong El Nino May SOI: -19.0
+1.53 2015 lead to strong El Nino May SOI: -13.1
+1.14 1980 El Nino fail/neutral May SOI: -2.6
+0.96 1982 lead to strong El Nino May SOI: -7.1
+0.95 2014 lead to weak El Nino May SOI: +4.3
+0.89 2018 ??? May SOI: +2.7
+0.87 2009 lead to strong El Nino May SOI: -5.0
+0.76 1991 lead to strong El Nino May SOI: -17.9
+0.61 1989 warmed only to neutral May SOI: +15.1
+0.58 1987 lead to strong El Nino May SOI: -19.6
+0.54 2006 lead to weak El Nino May SOI: -7.7

So, 8 of the 10 (80%) of the surrounding years were El Nino by late in the year. The two that failed had May SOI of -2.6 (1980) and +15.1 (1989). Of the 7 that had a May SOI -5.0 or lower, 6 went onto a strong Nino peak and one went only to a weak El Nino peak. None of the 3 that were higher than -5.0 went to a moderate to strong El Nino. This all tells me that the chance for strong El Nino by winter remains low, but the chance for weak to moderate El Nino is increasing. However, I still think ASO will only be warm neutral based on Eurosip's May forecast for ASO.

[Ntxw]

Will be 0C later this morning at the update

[NDG]

Will be 0C later this morning at the update

Interesting, I thought it was to be at least to +0.1 if not +0.2 by looking at the buoys. This makes the CFSv2 forecast to be warm biased by the end of the month.

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly and the MAM ONI updates are up

The weekly update by CPC is up to 0.0C after being for two weeks in a row at -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

The MAM update of ONI is up to -0.4C.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php

[Ntxw]

Will be 0C later this morning at the update

Interesting, I thought it was to be at least to +0.1 if not +0.2 by looking at the buoys. This makes the CFSv2 forecast to be warm biased by the end of the month.

I've thought the same a few times but the weeklies have come in a bit cooler than eyeballing the buoys

[LarryWx]

Today's weekly ENSO report has the OHC up to +1.01 C vs last week's report's +0.94 C. That 0.07 C warming is pretty decent warming for just one week, especially with it up at these levels.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Fairly robust reduction of trade winds is predicted by the EPS this weekend across the equatorial eastern Pacific.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628099546869760

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628990446305280

[Kingarabian]

@MJVentrice
Fairly robust reduction of trade winds is predicted by the EPS this weekend across the equatorial eastern Pacific.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/1HiK0Pv.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628099546869760[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628990446305280[tweet]

Experts starting to back up the information the ENSO enthusiasts here on Storm2k put out.

[Kingarabian]

I understand the CPC's reluctant stance towards an El Nino after last years El Nino bust, but they likely need to issue an El Nino watch pretty soon.

[NDG]

@MJVentrice
Fairly robust reduction of trade winds is predicted by the EPS this weekend across the equatorial eastern Pacific.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/1HiK0Pv.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628099546869760[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628990446305280[tweet]

Experts starting to back up the information the ENSO enthusiasts here on Storm2k put out.

M Ventrice has been has been on the El Niño wagon for a while now

[Kingarabian]

@MJVentrice
Fairly robust reduction of trade winds is predicted by the EPS this weekend across the equatorial eastern Pacific.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/1HiK0Pv.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628099546869760[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1003628990446305280[tweet]

Experts starting to back up the information the ENSO enthusiasts here on Storm2k put out.

M Ventrice has been has been on the El Niño wagon for a while now

Compared to his El Nino tweets in 2014 and 2015, he's only seldomly spoke about the atmosphere coming out of a La Nina state and into Neutral. Think he tweeted once in April about the warm subsurface pool.

[Kingarabian]

Today's weekly ENSO report has the OHC up to +1.01 C vs last week's report's +0.94 C. That 0.07 C warming is pretty decent warming for just one week, especially with it up at these levels.

Hey Larry, can you post your SOI monthly averages for June and July for both Tahiti and Darwin in previous El Nino/La Nina years? I thought they were a great barometer to gauge El Nino chances.