Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[cycloneye]

This wave has a clear circulation and GFS,EURO,and CMC show development.I know that all the attention is in 94L and 96L but this may be another one to pay attention as soon it emerges Africa.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, that looks quite impressive! Still has a long ways off till emerging over the Atlantic. Currently shear is very low in the eastern/central atlantic so this just might be our next invest.

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO shows it.Click where it says Southamerica.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[cycloneye]

Here is another pic:

[wx247]

Oh good... another future invest. I think my brain may turn to mush. lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro looks to show a weakness it can recurve into, GFS seems to show it making it too close to comfort to the islands.



Euro

GFS

[cycloneye]

18z GFs shows a weak low emerge Africa but it dissapears later.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Numlock]

I'm skeptical. It seems like the models get a bit too eager with waves that are over or just coming off of Africa, and a lot of the time nothing happens.

[Wx_Warrior]

312 gfs

[blp]

I have been looking at the UKMet this year as my model for cyclogensis because it has been the least bullish with systems and seems to have a good handle on the initial development. UKMet did not show much development with 94L in the Central Atlantic when the GFS and EURO were all bullish on development for several runs. Once the system actually develops I think the other models have had a better handle.

The 12Z UKmet has been more aggressive with development than the previous runs and we now have three consecutive runs with this low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=120hr

So far 00Z GFS showing a stronger low than the 18Z.
144hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
168hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
300hr Fantasy Land has it over South Florida
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

NOGAPS has lower pressures in the area but is not on board with this yet.

[boca]

I have been looking at the UKMet this year as my model for cyclogensis because it has been the least bullish with systems and seems to have a good handle on the initial development. UKMet did not show much development with 94L in the Central Atlantic when the GFS and EURO were all bullish on development for several runs. Once the system actually develops I think the other models have had a better handle.

The 12Z UKmet has been more aggressive with development than the previous runs and we now have three consecutive runs with this low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=120hr

So far 00Z GFS showing a stronger low than the 18Z.
144hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
168hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
300hr Fantasy Land has it over South Florida
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

NOGAPS has lower pressures in the area but is not on board with this yet.

You just beat me to that of that fantasy storm hitting S FL at 300 hrs.It does develop it at the medium range too.We just have to watch the model runs.

[blp]

I have been looking at the UKMet this year as my model for cyclogensis because it has been the least bullish with systems and seems to have a good handle on the initial development. UKMet did not show much development with 94L in the Central Atlantic when the GFS and EURO were all bullish on development for several runs. Once the system actually develops I think the other models have had a better handle.

The 12Z UKmet has been more aggressive with development than the previous runs and we now have three consecutive runs with this low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=120hr

So far 00Z GFS showing a stronger low than the 18Z.
144hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
168hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
300hr Fantasy Land has it over South Florida
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

NOGAPS has lower pressures in the area but is not on board with this yet.

You just beat me to that of that fantasy storm hitting S FL at 300 hrs.It does develop it at the medium range too.We just have to watch the model runs.

Yea, I don't know why I have been hooked on this low. I guess I have a gut feeling this one will develop.

[blp]

Nice convection and good curvature on this low.

0400UTC

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think it could easily become an invest as soon as it hits the water. Curvature looks great!

[KWT]

Not a bad looking wave I've got to admit with hints of cyclonic turning though convection has weakened a touch over the system over the last 6hrs as you'd expect at that time of the day.

[Meso]

This is almost exactly the same as Bertha... same sort of model support around the same time frame.And the 00z EURO even shows it in almost the same place as Bertha in 240 hours..Will be interesting

[KWT]

Indeed Meso it is quite like Bertha really. to think if we were to get another Cape Verde system develop then tht will be the 2nd in July, that really would suggest a very active CV season could occur this season. We will see!

[cycloneye]

Impressive the curvature seen.Its west of Nigeria and over Ghana.

[johngaltfla]

I hate to say this, but my guesstimate of 21 named storms may not seem so far-fetched now.....

[cycloneye]