ENSO Subsurface SSTA Update

[Anonymous]

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52 ... xzteq.html (from CPC)

This is looking interesting. What I am seeing taking place in this animation is a number of things. The bulge of warm anomalies from the surface down is shrinking and loosing heat. Its clearly discerned on the loop; the first few frames show it taking up most of the image with values up to 6ºC above average. The last frame has it being about equal in size to the cool pool further east, with warmest values only 4ºC in a very small area. On the other hand, the cool pool itself is on a gradual expanding trend. The supply of warm SSTAs in the far lower right and left corners is gone. This is just one out of the many reasons TWW, Kevin, and I expect neutral to weak La Nina conditions for the summer and fall of 2003.

[Anonymous]

SOI values are on a gradual rising trend as well...


Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI
----------------------------------------------------------------
26-Dec-2002 1010.86 1008.35 -6.20 -17.10 -8.09
27-Dec-2002 1010.98 1007.85 -3.00 -16.23 -8.23
28-Dec-2002 1011.14 1008.10 -3.50 -15.42 -8.33
29-Dec-2002 1011.06 1009.15 -9.30 -14.48 -8.41
30-Dec-2002 1010.49 1009.10 -12.10 -13.73 -8.46
31-Dec-2002 1011.31 1008.20 -3.10 -13.09 -8.33
1-Jan-2003 1012.39 1006.00 8.30 -12.03 -7.96
2-Jan-2003 1012.35 1007.60 0.60 -11.17 -7.65
3-Jan-2003 1011.09 1008.20 -8.10 -10.58 -7.50
4-Jan-2003 1010.86 1007.10 -3.90 -9.91 -7.28
5-Jan-2003 1011.00 1007.15 -3.50 -9.41 -6.98
6-Jan-2003 1011.05 1007.75 -6.10 -9.20 -6.76
7-Jan-2003 1009.08 1006.80 -10.90 -9.08 -6.68
8-Jan-2003 1006.85 1005.75 -16.50 -9.08 -6.67
9-Jan-2003 1006.93 1004.50 -10.20 -8.85 -6.61
10-Jan-2003 1008.48 1003.75 0.50 -8.28 -6.50
11-Jan-2003 1011.06 1003.85 12.20 -7.38 -6.35
12-Jan-2003 1011.84 1004.30 13.80 -6.29 -6.14
13-Jan-2003 1011.81 1003.35 18.10 -5.53 -5.85
14-Jan-2003 1011.25 1002.35 20.20 -4.59 -5.45
15-Jan-2003 1010.44 1001.90 18.50 -3.42 -5.23
16-Jan-2003 1010.74 1004.40 8.10 -2.35 -5.15
17-Jan-2003 1010.31 1005.40 1.40 -1.50 -5.14
18-Jan-2003 1010.64 1006.25 -1.00 -0.74 -5.12
19-Jan-2003 1012.70 1006.60 7.00 0.12 -4.93
20-Jan-2003 1014.31 1006.40 15.50 1.00 -4.66
21-Jan-2003 1013.70 1007.75 6.30 1.20 -4.68
22-Jan-2003 1012.04 1009.75 -10.90 0.85 -4.99
23-Jan-2003 1011.13 1009.55 -14.20 0.27 -5.24
24-Jan-2003 1010.45 1008.60 -12.90 -0.18 -5.38