JB style SE US homebrew

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Ed Mahmoud

JB style SE US homebrew

#1 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:13 pm

12Z GFS Loop

Per the JB video, old rule from the days before computer models that his father subscribed to - mid August to mid October, pressure reaches/exceeds 1025 mb at Cape Hatteras, look out to the South.

I guess because pressure that high over Hatteras implies strong East winds over the SE US and Bahamas, and the Florida landmass causes slowing/convergence.

GFS shows big time Northeast US high pressure, and then falling pressure, kind of in the shape of an inverted trough in the next week.

Image

GFS also shows Cape Verde season trying to refire, although it seems to be getting less likely something can get all the way across to North America/the islands in late September.
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Frank2
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#2 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:28 pm

About 30 folks on here right now - what a difference from the 600-800 on here at this time of day last week...

Let's hope the easterlies start to break down - that'll put a lid on any other CV systems, as it did last year and in 2006 when the easterlies suddenly ended...

I think the only wind anyone is hoping for now is from the north...

Frank
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Blown Away
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#3 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:39 pm

JB will go down swinging this season with his big EC storm prediction.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#4 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:40 pm

Frank2 wrote:About 30 folks on here right now - what a difference from the 600-800 on here at this time of day last week...

Let's hope the easterlies start to break down - that'll put a lid on any other CV systems, as it did last year and in 2006 when the easterlies suddenly ended...

I think the only wind anyone is hoping for now is from the north...

Frank



Besides the Appalachia State defeats the Wolverines in Ann Arbor type defeat of a hurricane hitting SE Texas despite persistent Autumn like Westerlies and multiple cold fronts, I am starting to fear the second weekend without power/television and missed college football and the Cowboys playing night football. I heard the Monday Night game was spectacular, and I missed it.


However, the Central and Eastern Gulf, and the Southeast US are open to storms through October.

October 5-October 17, 1954
Image

Note- the highest wind gust ever recorded in New York City, 113 mph, happened with Hazel after it had begun extra-tropical transition! (Per Wiki)
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#5 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:30 pm

It's 9/17/08 and the forecast calls for 7/4/2 before the end of the season. I'll be surprised to see that total! A hurricane in Texas prior to mid September is not that unusual, the path it took to get there was unusual. Expecting 7/4/2 for late Sept/Oct is high expectations, this is not 2005!
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#6 Postby Steve H. » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:08 pm

I don't know. There is potential all over the basin right now and when the shear let's up and mjo kicks in......look out. Several forecasters are already saying we will meet the Bill Gray #s.
We still may have more action than we want.
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#7 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:09 pm

12Z Euro is looking at something near the Linas in days 4-7..
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#8 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:58 pm

Blown_away wrote:JB will go down swinging this season with his big EC storm prediction.


Wasn't Hanna enough? I enjoy JB/Accuweather but sometimes I don't understand their logic.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#9 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:04 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:JB will go down swinging this season with his big EC storm prediction.


Wasn't Hanna enough? I enjoy JB/Accuweather but sometimes I don't understand their logic.



North Carolina was #1 this year, ahead of Texas and Florida, so he needs another Carolina storm if his pre-season landfall forecast is to work out.

But that isn't why JB is on this. It is because of the rules of thumb he learned from his father before Penn State and computer models, abnormally high pressure during the peak of the season in the Carolinas often implies development to the South.
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#10 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 17, 2008 9:54 pm

perhaps we could see some kind of subtropical development in this area in a few days

it is getting close to that time of year, i think.


nice fetch for some fat wind chop for them surfers
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#11 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:06 am

GFS still sensing what JB has been talking about, ripping East winds beneath a mega-surface high, converging near Florida with pressures falling...


Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#12 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Sep 18, 2008 12:47 pm

Ok, it is the Canadian...
Image


But the GFS looks suspicious as well...

Image
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#13 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 18, 2008 1:43 pm

The Canadian has a system N of PR, maybe it develops a system out of the area near the islands?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#14 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:07 pm

Blown_away wrote:The Canadian has a system N of PR, maybe it develops a system out of the area near the islands?


I don't think so, I looped the Canadian and it looks like in situ development. Notice how close the GFS and Canadian agree.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#15 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:40 am

Euro shows development from a non-tropical origin...


Image
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#16 Postby Category 5 » Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:53 am

Blown_away wrote:JB will go down swinging this season with his big EC storm prediction.


He was just sent down to the minors. :D
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#17 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Sep 19, 2008 2:23 pm

12Z Euro. BTW, JB aknowledges this may not be 100% purely tropical, and may not get named by NHC. Today's video also mentioned that 93L may be an ingredient in this Carolina Crasher scenario.

Image
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Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#18 Postby N2Storms » Fri Sep 19, 2008 3:52 pm

Just looking at the GOM and in my own, very amateur opinion I gotta believe that if all that convection persists for 48-72 hours it may be our next area of concern...
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB style SE US homebrew

#19 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 20, 2008 10:18 am

Euro still sort of sees it, but weaker, further offshore, and just guessing based on its shape, not purely tropical.

Image
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#20 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:25 pm

Not so funny you mention this after IKE but Joe B believes the S GOM will be a hotspot next week.
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