MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

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DanieleItalyRm
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MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#1 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Sep 27, 2008 4:55 am

Good Morning
It's very interested this storm yesterday and today over the Black Sea..
very similary with the tropical cyclones and Mediterranean Tropical Like Cyclones,with explosiv convectiv in the center.
sorry for my English
Daniele

yesterday evening:

ImageImage

ImageImage

Today:

ImageImage

ImageImage

ImageImage

ImageImage

Now it's Landfall with the coast

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=zoo ... 02&yas=336
Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Sat Sep 27, 2008 6:43 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:01 am

Looks like a hurricane. Maybe formed the same way Vince, Zeta, in others. Cold upper levels, which allow for a warm core to develop near the surface.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#3 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:11 am

Doesn't look too good convection-wise though. Looks like a lot of low clouds.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#4 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:42 am

Chacor wrote:Doesn't look too good convection-wise though. Looks like a lot of low clouds.

sorry but this is a good convection thunderstorm,and not low clouds
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:51 am

Image

Waters are quite warm in the area to support at least subtropical development.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:51 am

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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 27, 2008 6:00 am

Image

Image
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#8 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Sep 27, 2008 6:10 am

ImageImage

Image

ImageImage
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#9 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:31 am

A cargo ship, believed to be Ukrainian or Russian, sank in stormy waters off the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria with 13 crew members aboard, authorities say.

The 5,000 tonne Tolstoy, carrying scrap metal, did not send out a distress call, said Nikolai Apostolov, head of the Bulgarian maritime office.

Bulgarian authorities were alerted by a Russian satellite centre, he said.

News agencies report that the ship's crew, believed to be Ukrainian with a Russian captain, are all missing.

Rescue helicopters and ships were searching the waters 20 kilometres (12 miles) off Cape Emine on Bulgaria's northern Black Sea coast, but their efforts were hampered by rough weather.

The ship sank at about 0400 (0100 GMT).

The Tolstoy, which sailed under a North Korean flag, departed from the southern Russian port city of Rostov-on-Don on 21 September and was destined for Turkey.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7639544.stm
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#10 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:58 pm

DanieleItalyRm wrote:ImageImage

Image

ImageImage


According to that quikscat pass there was no closed circulation = not a cyclone.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#11 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sun Sep 28, 2008 3:06 pm

Chacor wrote:According to that quikscat pass there was no closed circulation = not a cyclone.


Hi Chacor
First of all the cyclonic circulaton appears very easily in the images: the loop are very self explanatory (did you see sat24 yesterday?). Besides the first quickscat map is from 26 Sept.night,not from yesterday morning. In the second quickscat map,the closed circulation can easily be recognised. This is a cyclone.

Three more cases very similar to this one are being studied in the black sea currently(and many others Tropical Like Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea).

28 September 2008
"The storm and rainy weather, that has been affecting Istanbul, will also continue on Sunday. Two ships, including a Russian and a Cambodian, ran aground due to storm. A Georgian-flagged ship was ripped off into two. Roofs were destroyed in many cities,trees were uprooted. Citizens, who were travelling to other cities for the Feast of Ramadan holiday, had difficulties due to bad weather"
Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Sun Sep 28, 2008 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#12 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sun Sep 28, 2008 4:02 pm

BESIDES THE QUICKSCAT MAP IS FROM 26 SEPT.08 NIGHT,NOT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. IN THE SECOND QUICKSCAT MAP THE CLOSED CIRCULATION CAN EASILY BE RECOGNIZED.
First of all the cyclonic circulation appears very easily in the images: the loop are very self explanatory (did you see sat24 yesterday?)
This is a cyclone.

Image

Tree more cases very similar to this one are being studied in the black sea currently(and many others Tropical Like Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea).

28 September 2008
"The storm and rainy weather, that has been affecting Istanbul, will also continue on Sunday.
Two ships, including a Russian and a Cambodian, ran aground due to storm. A Georgian-flagged ship was ripped off into two.
Roofs were destroyed in many cities,trees were uprooted.
Citizens, who were travelling to other cities for the Feast of Ramadan holiday, had difficulties due to bad weather"
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#13 Postby Crostorm » Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:01 pm

Yes it is very interesting

Here is another sat anim.
Image
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:45 pm

I'd be very careful about using QS to determine a closed circulation of a small system.

Qs notoriously misses small closed circulations
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#15 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Sep 29, 2008 12:57 pm

ImageImage

I HAVEN'T SAID THAT IS A HURRICANE!
I haven't said a Tropical Cyclones,but I said that is a tropical LIKE ciclone..
It is not possible not to notice that this event looks like tropical cyclone.

UNTIL THIS KIND OF PHENOMENA WILL BE UNDERESTIMATED,NOBODY WILL GET INTERESTED IN THEM ENOUGH.
"The storm and rainy weather, that has been affecting Istanbul, will also continue on Sunday.
Two ships, including a Russian and a Cambodian, ran aground due to storm. A Georgian-flagged ship was ripped off into two.
Roofs were destroyed in many cities,trees were uprooted."

EVEN THOUGH EACH YEAR THE Tropical Like Cyclones in MEDITERRANEAN SEA CAUSE FLOODS,DAMAGES and DEATHS,MOSTLY THE ATTENTION OF METEOROLOGIST AND STUDENTS IS FOCUSED ON LESS DANGEROUS AND LESS RELEVANT EVENTS(tropical depression and subtropical storm very far from the coasts and not dangerous for humans).
Many Thanks.


Image

images tropical like cyclone in Mediterranean Sea "The German weather ship Meteor passed through that part of the storm and reported sustained winds of 84 mph at 1400 UTC, with a minimum pressure of 29.25 in an hour earlier (along with 83 mph winds). The Meteor had been launching rawinsonde balloons, but it was unable to launch one during the closest approach due to strong winds".
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#16 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:04 pm

Daniele, what's so special about it? For years we know cold fronts passing the Mediterranean or the Black Sea from north to south can lead to stormy lows (especially the Genua low is well known).
Sometimes such a low can show an eye, this is well studied before. Even in winter times NW-Europe can have lows with an eye, known as polar lows.

In the Netherlands we don't care if a system is extratropical, subtropical, tropical, polar or whatever. If we expect wind or surge damage, warnings are given.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#17 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Tue Sep 30, 2008 6:00 am

Genoa Low? No, no. Sorry, but you don't know the tropical like cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea. The Genoa low is not like a tropical cyclone. The Genoa low (and other subtropical or extratropical storm cyclones) is nothing or low convection in the center,and cold core.

The Mediterranean Tropical like cyclones have warm core,high convection in the center and floods precipitation.
They form in August-December but especially in September.

You said "If we expect wind or surge damage, warnings are given". But in the Mediterranean sea...never! You underestimate these cyclonic storms. These not polar lows or normal extratropical cyclones.

Formed in SEP 1985 in Gulf of Tunis. (Wind 108Km/h in south Sardinia), 24°C SST

Image

Formed in Gulf of Tunis in SEP 2003, 26°C SST (Quickscat measured 25 m/s winda gust(?))

Image

Formed in Balearic sea, floods along many coasts along the Tyrrhenian Sea, caused destruction in Aeolian Islands with 145 Km/h wind, 2 people dead.

Image

For Kerry Emanuel and Louis Fita there is a example of tropical storm in Mediterranean Sea

SEP 2003 formed in Gulf of Tunis, floods and damage in southern Sicily, 26°C SST (520mm rain in 48 hr), 30-40 knots wind

Image

Formed in Libyan Sea, OCT 2004, floods in extreme southern Sicily, 24°C SST, 35 knots wind

Image

And many others.
Thank you

Image
Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:18 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: MED: Tropical Like Cyclone over the Black Sea

#18 Postby HenkL » Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:24 am

Daniele,

I'm not denying subtropical storms in the Mediterranean at all. I know they do occur (even in January and March).
There are many studies about these 'Medicanes', indicating they are subtropical because of a combination of baroclinic (mid-level) processes and deep convection. See for instance a recent study from Fita, Emanuel etal.

What I'm trying to say is: don't underestimate whatever storm, either (sub)tropical or extratropical. Every storm can do a lot of wind damage and bring too much rain.
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