Upper low near 22N/50W

[Ed Mahmoud]

Satellite loop


Getting convection near the center, and has a tap of moisture from the deeper tropics.

Still image


Dry air around it, but the feature itself looks like it is moistening its surroundings.

GFS surface reflection most apparent in 72 hours, halfway between Greater Antilles and Bermuda before GFS starts shearing it into a frontal zone.


Canadian closes it off in about three days, before recurving it and turning it into a major post-tropical ('cause its Canadian) Atlantic storm.


Tropical


Post tropical


I think lack of time may be the only thing that may stop a sub-tropical cyclone from forming here

[Sanibel]

MJO is flaring everything. This area has shown late season favorability.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z GFS through 4 days not showing much love for anything in the Atlantic except for its near ever present Cape Verde-ish system.

[Sanibel]

Both the Atlantic ULL flare-up and Caribbean are mostly based on ULL shear-induced convection enhancement. All depends if the latent season conditions support it.

[HUC]

No much tropical developpement for this feature,but,it's moving West,and i think that all the convection enhancing in it's south and S Est,should progress toward our islands.So,imo, rain in the near future,and rain.

[alan1961]

just away from this area further back east the ITCZ has a pretty intense flare up currently, could we be in for some surprise development sw of the cape verdes..we've seen it before but just something to keep an eye on

[Sanibel]

This ULL swirl has the best chance if it drills down.