hurricanetrack wrote:You are right. We do have history on our side to tell us what WILL happen the next time a hurricane of a certain category will affect a region. And yet, the same thing happens over and over without fail. I am not sure what the solution is except to try and prepare as many people as possible for the worst possible outcome.
Unfortunately, the conundrum even extends to this forum - I can't count the number of times where (some) contributors from southeastern Texas continually made excuses to compensate for their lack of preparedness prior to Ike. The comments told the story. "It's not coming to Houston, based on [non-meteorological reasoning] ---." There were also the "it's only a Category X" retorts, despite numerous (science based) pleas from myself and others. In fact, I continually emphasized the fact that Ike's large wind radii and extensive fetch would contribute to a very significant surge. I even highlighted (on another forum) the Bolivar Peninsula and Beaumont/Port Arthur vicinity as the region that would likely receive the highest surge values. Unfortunately, the aforementioned posters often responded with the "you're -removed- for a disaster" comments, which were entirely unfounded. Finally, it's unfathomable that many people utilized the opinions on this forum, which is NOT an official resource, to support their endless "it's not coming here" comments. I would estimate that these people wasted endless time on this forum and refused to utilize the time frame for constructive preparedness.
I would also adjust the bolded portion of your post - history does not necessarily indicate the impacts of a hurricane (based solely on categories). Hurricane Katrina, an immense Category 3 hurricane, should have provided ample evidence. Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Ike should have confirmed the statements. These hurricanes were much more destructive than Hurricane Charley, which made landfall with stronger (130 kt/150 mph) maximum surface winds. Charley's small wind radii greatly reduced the surge and destructive potential on the southwestern coast of Florida. Many residents have stated that Hurricane Frances, a Category 2 hurricane, caused more severe/widespread damage than the stronger Hurricane Jeanne in east-central Florida.
It is NOT a coincidence that the majority of the deadliest hurricanes (that produced the highest death tolls related to storm surge) have struck the Gulf Coast of the United States. The only exceptions were the 1926 Miami hurricane, the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, the 1938 Long Island Express, and others. The high death tolls in 1926, 1928, and 1938 were largely created by poor warnings. Katrina's 1,800+ deaths occurred in the modern era. If you traverse history, extremely deadly United States impacts are more common (with higher death tolls) on the Gulf Coast. It is NOT a coincidence that the highest storm surge values (1900, 1915, Carla 1961, Camille 1969, Katrina 2005, Rita 2005, and Ike 2008) have affected the Gulf Coast states. It is NOT a coincidence that the deadliest natural catastrophe in United States history struck the Gulf Coast region.
