Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[Aquawind]

Were almost at a point were this SST thread is moot.. and need to focus on the depth of the heat for Major Cane support

YES THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH..LOL

[accuweather]

So in the previous post where I quoted NDBC they said that the buoy readings matched the RTG-SST anomalies. That worries me because the buoy readings go INTO the RTG-SST anomalies, according to this page:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

And what's worse is that "It is the RTG-SST that is used to initialize many of the North American and global models" according to this page:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR3465.1

I asked them if that might mean the models are getting bad data, but they only replied that both daytime and nighttime buoy readings are going into the RTG-SST.

[cycloneye]

Were almost at a point were this SST thread is mute.. and need to focus on the depth of the heat for Major Cane support

YES THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH..LOL

Scary TCHP graphic.

[Aquawind]

So in the previous post where I quoted NDBC they said that the buoy readings matched the RTG-SST anomalies. That worries me because the buoy readings go INTO the RTG-SST anomalies, according to this page:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

And what's worse is that "It is the RTG-SST that is used to initialize many of the North American and global models" according to this page:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR3465.1

I asked them if that might mean the models are getting bad data, but they only replied that both daytime and nighttime buoy readings are going into the RTG-SST.

So let's say we have 15 observations that could be higher by a few degrees. How much could that affect the models and in what way would be a good question? Could that support a stronger ridging above and thus have the models tend to push systems to the west more? I assume they are saying it would affect all the runs consistently. Not sure how much this would affect the models but it make ya go hmmm...

Scary TCHP graphic.

And it's only going to get worse..

[Scorpion]

This is just obscene! Those poor coral reefs

[Aquawind]

I want everybody along the coast to empty their Ice Trays from the freezer into the GOM and refill and empty...untill December please.. Jamaican's and Cuban's please do the same.. Or better yet let's have Scotty beam over a few icebergs to the area..

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

The data from all real-time observations for NCEP analysis and model data input (buoys, satellite, ships, etc.) undergo a QC process and questionable data is flagged.

[HURAKAN]

7.2.2005


7.1.2010


Beyond belief! Look how La Niña is taking over.

[KWT]

Main MDR zone is a little cooler this year now compared to 2005, probably because of a fairly strong wave train compared to normal...but the regtion betwen 20-35N looks a good deal warmer than 2005...not sure if thats good or bad really for development.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm going to bump this thread because it still has a lot of importance regarding storm potential. SST's are steadily rising in the MDR region making Cape Verde system more likely to develop in the coming weeks with all of that extra energy available.

[Stephanie]

Last week, the temperature of the ocean at Atlantic City reportedly reached 78 degrees. Today it was at 73 degrees. That's unheard of this time of the year.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not sure which readings are the most accurate but it seems like temperatures off the mid-atlantic coast from Virgina Beach to Long Island are generally averaging in the mid 70s (74-76). I've seen reports of 78-79 degree readings and they were even higher a week and a half ago. Anyway the readings are anywhere from 2-3.5 degrees Celsius above normal for areas north of 35N. If we do get a tropical system up here, that could make a lot of difference with regards to its intensity.

[KWT]

Without a doubt those waters have done a huge 180 flip even in comprasion to 6-8 weeks ago, if we do get an east coast system then certainly could be stronger then expected if conditions are decent enough.

[cycloneye]

Below is today's discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the very warm waters in the Atlantic and the record that was set in June.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.

[hurricaneCW]

The SST's are in full swing and only a couple of weeks from peaking. They remain well above average for the MDR region and from N.C. to Maine. The Gulf and Caribbean are slightly above normal and more than capable of supporting a major hurricane. So now that we have the energy, let's get the storms rolling.

[leaf blower]

Anyone know where i can find an archive of SST's/Anomalies for the North Atlantic. Ireland/GB in particular)

Im trying to find out if the waters are cooler than the last few years.

With all the news reports of the Gulf Stream losing its strength and the coldest winter in decades on the way for Europe. Unfortunately i can only find current SST's but no archive

[cycloneye]

I haven't looked at the sst graphics for a while as I thought that the MDR was cooling, but for my surprise, is the opposite Let's see if those waters start to cool as January comes,or they stay well above normal. Here is how it looked as of December 4th.

[cycloneye]

Wow,we are in December and look at the North Atlantic and the MDR,how well above normal are those ssta's.Compare this graphic with the last week one at above post and notice the warmer trend caused by the Artic Occilation.

[ROCK]

yeah Luis...those anomalies do look ominous of they hold into spring....with what I suspect nuetral ENSO this could mean another big year....

[Blown Away]

yeah Luis...those anomalies do look ominous of they hold into spring....with what I suspect nuetral ENSO this could mean another big year....

If the pattern remains we may have another active season with a weak Bermuda High and majority of the systems staying offshore??