Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[Ivanhater]

[FireBird]

so oil on the surface won't overall increase the temps of the water in the gulf?

Just wanna add to this question also...

Will so much oil on the surface act as an agitant for storm development? I'm thinking that during evaporation, particles of oil may be included, even if only in minor fractions. How might this affect rain and later on, storm development in the GoM?

[jinftl]

At this time, it seems the greatest concentration of oil is within 40 or 50 miles of the coast. By the time a storm would move over that area, half of the circulation would have already made landfall just about. Katrina had hurricane force wind extending up to 100 miles on each side of the eye....that would dwarf even the largest plume of the oil spill which is estimated at 40 miles by 3 miles in size.

By the time an approaching storm hits the oil spill, it is the crunch time....the storm is making landfall. The impact of half the circulation being on land would probably be greater than passing over the oil spill in terms of actual effects on the intensity, moisture, size, etc of a storm. There is no talk, for example, of the heat-charged Loop Current being diminished by the oil spill, rather the talk is about how that strong current could transport some parts of the oil to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic.

For perspective, here is an image of Hurricane Gustav with the area of oil spill shown in blue. By the time the storm moves over that area, it is landfalling.

so oil on the surface won't overall increase the temps of the water in the gulf?

Just wanna add to this question also...

Will so much oil on the surface act as an agitant for storm development? I'm thinking that during evaporation, particles of oil may be included, even if only in minor fractions. How might this affect rain and later on, storm development in the GoM?

[cycloneye]

You can see the contrast between the warm Atlantic and the cold Pacific.

[Category 5]

Such a seamless transition from El Nino to La Nina it seems. Reminds me of 97-99, though not as extreme.

[bob rulz]

It's pretty incredible that essentially the entire Atlantic is above average, in some places significantly so.

Does anybody have maps from the same time period in 2005?

[Aquawind]

Already 84F on Ft Myers Beach.. Those anomalies in the GOM and along the East Coast have flopped from below to above in weeks..

Here bob.. 5/28/2005

[HouTXmetro]

Yes indeed! Just a few weeks ago the GOM was BELOW normal.

[Category 5]

It's pretty incredible that essentially the entire Atlantic is above average, in some places significantly so.

I was down the shore the other weekend, and the NJ shore is one of the few places with BELOW normal SST's right now, and we were talking about Hurricane season, and I was explaining the scary set up we have right now and they just kept telling me "oh BS the water is freezing cold". It's just amazing to see this already.

[bob rulz]

Already 84F on Ft Myers Beach.. Those anomalies in the GOM and along the East Coast have flopped from below to above in weeks..

Here bob.. 5/28/2005

Wow...it's almost scary to see the similarities.

[KWT]

Yep Bob thats pretty impressive it had to be said, even to the point where the warm and cold waters are located within the basin...though the cold waters are a little further east this season which may just put the main upper high feature further east perhaps, but who knows!

[gatorcane]

It's pretty incredible that essentially the entire Atlantic is above average, in some places significantly so.

Does anybody have maps from the same time period in 2005?

2005 at this time:



2010:

[Emmett_Brown]

It's pretty incredible that essentially the entire Atlantic is above average, in some places significantly so.

Does anybody have maps from the same time period in 2005?

2005 at this time:



2010:

Nice side by side comparison. Looks like 2005 clearly has 2010 beat from a temperature anomaly perspective (at least it appears that way from that chart for late May).

[KWT]

Yeah 2005 peaked late May into June, looks to me like 2010 peaked about a month earlier but its still clearly exceptionally warm overall out there.

[bob rulz]

It's still above average throughout the Atlantic though...not very many seasons are going to be as exceptional as 2005 but that doesn't mean the conditions out there still aren't frighteningly favorable.

[WeatherEmperor]

Very warm SST anomalies just about everywhere in the Atlantic. Take a look at how much above normal the GOM has gotten. It is so crazy that last month the GOM was below normal

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

[KWT]

Joe B nailed it in Feb/March when he said the whole Gulf will flip to above/well above average when he spotted the Loop Current being above average back then.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anomalies are waning a bit. Still very warm everywhere, but anomalies not as intense as they were last month. However, the next 6 days or so show a weakening of the Azores high, and really slack trade winds. Should see it warming back up for the next week at least.

[KWT]

Yeah we will probably keep up from now on with 2005, which peaked around this time. I can't believe I've even just typed that sentence!

[somethingfunny]

It's pretty incredible that essentially the entire Atlantic is above average, in some places significantly so.

Does anybody have maps from the same time period in 2005?

2005 at this time:



2010:

You know, the one thing that really sticks out at me from these maps is the difference in the Gulf of Alaska. Do you think that could help to reposition the Jet Stream and upper level storm tracks? Maybe allowing more hurricanes to be fish than in 2005....