Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[Ivanhater]

Not surprisingly, the Northern Gulf is capable of supporting a Cat 4 or a Cat 5 and it's only mid June!

[lonelymike]

Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.

I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?




As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)

Actually, given that the warmest surface temperatures in the Gulf are along the Florida coast, it's notable that the TCHP is relatively low in the Florida shelf area.

And I recall numerous discussions here over the years where Derek Ortt would point out the tendency of storms to weaken as they make landfall along the Gulf coast. My understanding has been that this relates to the shallow waters leading to lowered heat potential.

Guess I come out from under the rock every once in a while eh weatherfreak

[bob rulz]

Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.

I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?




As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)

Actually, given that the warmest surface temperatures in the Gulf are along the Florida coast, it's notable that the TCHP is relatively low in the Florida shelf area.

And I recall numerous discussions here over the years where Derek Ortt would point out the tendency of storms to weaken as they make landfall along the Gulf coast. My understanding has been that this relates to the shallow waters leading to lowered heat potential.

Not every storm is prone to this though. Audrey, Camille, and Charley are just a few examples.

[Weatherfreak000]

Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.

I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?




As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)

Actually, given that the warmest surface temperatures in the Gulf are along the Florida coast, it's notable that the TCHP is relatively low in the Florida shelf area.

And I recall numerous discussions here over the years where Derek Ortt would point out the tendency of storms to weaken as they make landfall along the Gulf coast. My understanding has been that this relates to the shallow waters leading to lowered heat potential.

I'm no scientist here, so take my opinion with a grain of salt. My take on that is massive, large cored systems such as Katrina, Ike, Rita, Gustav and Wilma (recent examples) have a tough time because they are so large they are susceptible to drawing in alot of dry air mass from the landmass itself, which causes it's core to erode and weaken. Not the SST's.


However, small-cored fast moving systems (Betsy and Camille being infamous examples in my hometown), were able to reliably sustain their inner cored and didnt lost much intensity going inland. I mean look at the heat content map right now. The Northern Gulf can sustain a Cat 5.

[Bocadude85]

Hurricane Wilma was actually strengthening as it was approaching SW Florida. Dry air is usually not a problem for hurricanes making landfall in central or south Florida as they can tap into the warm moist air of either the gulf or atlantic.

[KWT]

I think its not just that bocadude, but also because NE moving systems often will be able to tap into good upper divergence provided by the trough as it lifts the system out, that was certainly the case with both Charley and Wilma.

[Bocadude85]

I think its not just that bocadude, but also because NE moving systems often will be able to tap into good upper divergence provided by the trough as it lifts the system out, that was certainly the case with both Charley and Wilma.

Yes that is also another factor KWT. But in general storms making landfall in South Florida do not have a problem with dry air being entrained into the circulation.

[Weatherfreak000]

Also, landfalling south florida storms coming from the same direction as Charley and Wilma are typically fast moving and have alot of velocity to them which does wonders as far as maintaining the core. Landfalling systems in the N Gulf have the problem of just chugging along as a fairly consistent pace. This is why its important to have a smaller core so it can outlast the adverse elements.

[lonelymike]

Interesting arguements on both sides. I wonder where the pro-mets come down on this issue.

BTW I wasn't trying to start a flame war on this subject just throwing out some thoughts there. If I offended anybody it was not my intention

[Ivanhater]

The problem with this is it doesnt matter if large systems pull in dry air once reaching the northern gulf, the surge and waves are the big problem here. There is a reason most of the most catastrophic and costliest storms are those that struck the northern gulf, i.e Camille, Ivan and Katrina to name a few. Ivan and Katrina produced the higest surge and waves ever recorded based on the coastline they hit.

Surge is a bigger killer than wind...

[Weatherfreak000]

I definitely agree. The situation certainly seems to become a contrast between Large-Structurally degrading hurricane landfalls with a larger storm surge (referring to N Gulf Landfalls), in comparison to what you may expect from a fast hurricane with a smaller core.

This is definitely something I consider when it comes to determining effects so its quite an improvement the NHC has changed the storm surge policy.

[bob rulz]

Using the Hurricane Severity Index (which evenly divides a storm's impact between intensity and size), the strongest storms to make landfall in the U.S. were Carla, Hugo, and Betsy, with Camille, Katrina, and Opal just behind. Interesting that 5 of the 6 were Gulf hurricanes.

The larger storms are almost always the ones that do the most damage, although of course the amount of advance warning and location of impact are ultimately the most important factors.

[cycloneye]

This is today's data (17 of June) in this graphic and shows how warm is the Atlantic basin,not only the MDR. In contrast,the Pacific is the contrary for the most part and of course,in the equatorial area with La Nina charging up.

[Scorpion]

That is just insane. Something has got to give. I guess it's just a waiting game now.

[KWT]

Oh I have no doubt once things get going, the Atlantic will probably pump out one after another...

[jasons2k]

The FL Keys are roasting - a sign of the excessive SSTs:

The calendar says it’s not summer yet, but the thermometer is spinning a different yarn. Marathon has suffered the hottest first half of June since the National Weather Service began tracking readings at the Florida Keys Marathon Airport a decade ago. The average temperature was 85.8 degrees, 3.6 degrees above normal.

In Key West, the first 15 days of the month were the fifth-hottest since 1948, with an average temperature of 85.3 degrees, according to readings from the Key West International Airport, meteorologist Tony Fuentes said.

http://keysnews.com/

[StormClouds63]

Using the Hurricane Severity Index (which evenly divides a storm's impact between intensity and size), the strongest storms to make landfall in the U.S. were Carla, Hugo, and Betsy, with Camille, Katrina, and Opal just behind. Interesting that 5 of the 6 were Gulf hurricanes.

The larger storms are almost always the ones that do the most damage, although of course the amount of advance warning and location of impact are ultimately the most important factors.

Here's more details on the Hurricane Severity Index.
http://katrina.impactweather.com/hsi/hsi.pdf
http://www.impactweather.com/HSI.pdf

Slide 15 (first link above) provides rankings of infamous storms based on intensity and size. One thing I found interesting on slide 15 ... they have Andrew's intensity value at 23, while Camille is a 22. If Andrew came into south Florida with highest sustained winds of 165 m.p.h., can we then assume that they're estimating Camille's winds somewhere around 155-160 m.p.h. at Mississippi landfall?

[jasons2k]

Using the Hurricane Severity Index (which evenly divides a storm's impact between intensity and size), the strongest storms to make landfall in the U.S. were Carla, Hugo, and Betsy, with Camille, Katrina, and Opal just behind. Interesting that 5 of the 6 were Gulf hurricanes.

The larger storms are almost always the ones that do the most damage, although of course the amount of advance warning and location of impact are ultimately the most important factors.

Here's more details on the Hurricane Severity Index.
http://katrina.impactweather.com/hsi/hsi.pdf
http://www.impactweather.com/HSI.pdf

Slide 15 (first link above) provides rankings of infamous storms based on intensity and size. One thing I found interesting on slide 15 ... they have Andrew's intensity value at 23, while Camille is a 22. If Andrew came into south Florida with highest sustained winds of 165 m.p.h., can we then assume that they're estimating Camille's winds somewhere around 155-160 m.p.h. at Mississippi landfall?

I'm pretty amazed that Donna is nowhere on the list in Table 3. It made two US landfalls as a Cat. 4.

[StormClouds63]

I'm pretty amazed that Donna is nowhere on the list in Table 3. It made two US landfalls as a Cat. 4.

Looks like they omitted a number of significant storms. I came up with this list off the top of my head. Probably others as well:
Donna (1960)
Hilda (1964)
Beulah (1967)
Celia (1970)
Eloise (1975)
Anita (1977)
David (1979)
Frederick (1979)
Elena (1985)

[Ivanhater]

The Northern Gulf is breaking some records. Some of the highest values in the entire basin!