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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:09 pm 
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I would be quite alarmed for those of us who live along the Northern Gulf. The anomalies are very high for this time of year. Very hot waters out there!

Image

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Image

The continue weather we are having will continue this trend :double:

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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:25 pm 
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Water temps in the FL Keys....pure octane for a system that can feed off this energy:

SST at Blackwater Sound (Upper FL Keys near Key Largo):

Image


SST at Long Key (Middle FL Keys):

Image



SST at Key West (Lower FL Keys):

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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:50 am 
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I can see the well above average SSTs around Florida. This must be adding to our rather hot and sultry nights on the SE coast and the keys. We've been breaking quite a few nightly minimum temperature records. When it is 82 and with a heat index of 92 at 4am in the morning that's warmer than usual for our nightly temps in June.


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:25 pm 
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Oil makes water hotter....35.5C 64 miles out in the GOM...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

Previous record was 33.8 Std 1.3

Ok for those Math guys...betting a 25 year old record by well over a Standard deviation is pretty sick...


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:39 pm 
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:uarrow: That's just sick...

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:44 pm 
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That is insane temps, could you imagine a hurricane over temps that high in pure water with a good upper set-up!

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:47 pm 
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KWT wrote:
That is insane temps, could you imagine a hurricane over temps that high in pure water with a good upper set-up!


I would imagine from a far, my butt would have evacuated before I would find out. How in the heck do we go from well below normal temps in the northern gulf to 96 degrees in mid JUNE?!

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:50 pm 
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Shhheeesh.. I think for the sake of S2K sanity this thread needs to be locked for the rest of the season! :eek:


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:13 pm 
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temp did not register for the last hour...I think 35.5 may have been the max temp possible...


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:31 pm 
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The Southeast and Gulf will continue to bake

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:22 pm 
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SST is back
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

I think it really pegged out at 35.5


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:50 pm 
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[quote="Ivanhater"]I would be quite alarmed for those of us who live along the Northern Gulf. The anomalies are very high for this time of year. Very hot waters out there!

Image

Image

Image

The continue weather we are having will continue this trend :double:[/quote

The Gulf has quite a shallow shelf that goes out far. The hot temps don't help but I don't think the shallow shelf would help sustain a major hurricane for long.

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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:47 pm 
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lonelymike wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
I would be quite alarmed for those of us who live along the Northern Gulf. The anomalies are very high for this time of year. Very hot waters out there!

Image

The continue weather we are having will continue this trend :double:[/quote

The Gulf has quite a shallow shelf that goes out far. The hot temps don't help but I don't think the shallow shelf would help sustain a major hurricane for long.


It sure did entice Charley to bulk up in 2004

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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:53 pm 
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I may be wrong, but I don't think shallow water is an issue with hurricanes as long as the water is warm all the way to the sea floor. In fact, I would imagine that some of the most favorable waters for a hurricane to pass over would be relatively shallow, warm waters, as the storm would not upwell cooler water from below.


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:23 pm 
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Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:14 am 
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Yeah but remember more shallow water will cool and warm much quicker, therefore it a system is slow moving then you'd be surprised how rapidly a storm, esp a strong hurricane will likely drain that heat away rapidly.

As long as a system isn't too large and moving quickly enough then shallow waters are fine, the problem comes when systems reach the shallow waters and take in the drier air from land and it gets injested, happens all the time with systems in the Gulf of Mexico coast.

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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:18 am 
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lonelymike wrote:
Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?

Image


As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:22 am 
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Weatherfreak000 wrote:
lonelymike wrote:
Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?

As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)


I think this is the link:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:57 am 
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Weatherfreak000 wrote:
lonelymike wrote:
Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?

Image


As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)


Actually, given that the warmest surface temperatures in the Gulf are along the Florida coast, it's notable that the TCHP is relatively low in the Florida shelf area.

And I recall numerous discussions here over the years where Derek Ortt would point out the tendency of storms to weaken as they make landfall along the Gulf coast. My understanding has been that this relates to the shallow waters leading to lowered heat potential.


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 Post subject: Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies
PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:26 pm 
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And it keeps getting hotter and hotter

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