Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path. All amateur forecasts will require a STORM2K disclaimer (Disclaimer can be found at the top of the forum) at the top for their forecast.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9899
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#361 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:09 pm

I would be quite alarmed for those of us who live along the Northern Gulf. The anomalies are very high for this time of year. Very hot waters out there!

Image

Image

Image

The continue weather we are having will continue this trend :double:
Michael

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4308
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#362 Postby jinftl » Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:25 pm

Water temps in the FL Keys....pure octane for a system that can feed off this energy:

SST at Blackwater Sound (Upper FL Keys near Key Largo):

Image


SST at Long Key (Middle FL Keys):

Image



SST at Key West (Lower FL Keys):

Image

JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 808
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#363 Postby JPmia » Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:50 am

I can see the well above average SSTs around Florida. This must be adding to our rather hot and sultry nights on the SE coast and the keys. We've been breaking quite a few nightly minimum temperature records. When it is 82 and with a heat index of 92 at 4am in the morning that's warmer than usual for our nightly temps in June.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drezee
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2869
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#364 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:25 pm

Oil makes water hotter....35.5C 64 miles out in the GOM...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

Previous record was 33.8 Std 1.3

Ok for those Math guys...betting a 25 year old record by well over a Standard deviation is pretty sick...

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9899
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#365 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:39 pm

:uarrow: That's just sick...
Michael

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 30242
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#366 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:44 pm

That is insane temps, could you imagine a hurricane over temps that high in pure water with a good upper set-up!
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9899
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re:

#367 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:47 pm

KWT wrote:That is insane temps, could you imagine a hurricane over temps that high in pure water with a good upper set-up!


I would imagine from a far, my butt would have evacuated before I would find out. How in the heck do we go from well below normal temps in the northern gulf to 96 degrees in mid JUNE?!
Michael

Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6712
Age: 52
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Bonita Springs, Fl
Contact:

#368 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:50 pm

Shhheeesh.. I think for the sake of S2K sanity this thread needs to be locked for the rest of the season! :eek:

User avatar
drezee
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2869
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#369 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:13 pm

temp did not register for the last hour...I think 35.5 may have been the max temp possible...

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9899
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#370 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:31 pm

The Southeast and Gulf will continue to bake

Image
Michael

User avatar
drezee
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2869
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#371 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:22 pm

SST is back
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

I think it really pegged out at 35.5

lonelymike
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
Location: walton county fla

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#372 Postby lonelymike » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:50 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]I would be quite alarmed for those of us who live along the Northern Gulf. The anomalies are very high for this time of year. Very hot waters out there!

Image

Image

Image

The continue weather we are having will continue this trend :double:[/quote

The Gulf has quite a shallow shelf that goes out far. The hot temps don't help but I don't think the shallow shelf would help sustain a major hurricane for long.


GO SEMINOLES

User avatar
weatherSnoop
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 694
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:06 pm
Location: Tampa, FL
Contact:

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#373 Postby weatherSnoop » Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:47 pm

lonelymike wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:I would be quite alarmed for those of us who live along the Northern Gulf. The anomalies are very high for this time of year. Very hot waters out there!

Image

The continue weather we are having will continue this trend :double:[/quote

The Gulf has quite a shallow shelf that goes out far. The hot temps don't help but I don't think the shallow shelf would help sustain a major hurricane for long.


It sure did entice Charley to bulk up in 2004
Lee

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1302
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#374 Postby BigA » Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:53 pm

I may be wrong, but I don't think shallow water is an issue with hurricanes as long as the water is warm all the way to the sea floor. In fact, I would imagine that some of the most favorable waters for a hurricane to pass over would be relatively shallow, warm waters, as the storm would not upwell cooler water from below.

lonelymike
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
Location: walton county fla

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#375 Postby lonelymike » Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:23 pm

Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


GO SEMINOLES

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 30242
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#376 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:14 am

Yeah but remember more shallow water will cool and warm much quicker, therefore it a system is slow moving then you'd be surprised how rapidly a storm, esp a strong hurricane will likely drain that heat away rapidly.

As long as a system isn't too large and moving quickly enough then shallow waters are fine, the problem comes when systems reach the shallow waters and take in the drier air from land and it gets injested, happens all the time with systems in the Gulf of Mexico coast.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Weatherfreak000

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#377 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:18 am

lonelymike wrote:Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?

Image


As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)

msp
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu May 13, 2010 4:58 pm

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#378 Postby msp » Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:22 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?

As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)


I think this is the link:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Image

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8360
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#379 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:57 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Big A and Weathersnoop you might both be right. I've heard arguments both ways so I'm not sure which is correct.


I've never ever, EVER heard an argument going in your favor Lonelymike. I mean....no offense but have you been hiding under a rock for the past 10 years?

Image


As this map clearly shows that not only can the GOM sustain majors around this time....this year it is especially the case.

(Note to other posters: I dont remember the link but if someone could pull up that Heat Potential Map that specifically shows the category hurricane possible in certain areas and wants to post it for me that would be appreciated)


Actually, given that the warmest surface temperatures in the Gulf are along the Florida coast, it's notable that the TCHP is relatively low in the Florida shelf area.

And I recall numerous discussions here over the years where Derek Ortt would point out the tendency of storms to weaken as they make landfall along the Gulf coast. My understanding has been that this relates to the shallow waters leading to lowered heat potential.

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9899
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

#380 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:26 pm

And it keeps getting hotter and hotter

Image
Michael


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 6 guests