Global model runs discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8081 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Its over...

edit: Never really got started actually. :roll:

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8082 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:29 pm

18Z GFS has given up on any significant "storm" in the Gulf next week. With all the cool, dry air flowing across the Gulf next week it was pure fantasy. I expect no more than a weak swirl on the front in the BoC. It may travel up the front and enhance rainfall along its path, but that's about it.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8083 Postby WPBWeather » Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:18Z GFS has given up on any significant "storm" in the Gulf next week. With all the cool, dry air flowing across the Gulf next week it was pure fantasy. I expect no more than a weak swirl on the front in the BoC. It may travel up the front and enhance rainfall along its path, but that's about it.

You generally have a good idea of what lays ahead, which is more than many on the blog. However, many Pro Mets have less successful records in the past few years. Not saying that you may be wrong,but hopefully you are looking at multiple data sources.
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#8084 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:31 pm

In all fairness to our pro-mets (like Alyono, wxman57...) they were expecting something big east of the Caribbean islands (Gonzalo) based on existing favorable conditions, and they didn't just jump on board because the models were showing something. They weren't that sold to the SW Caribbean storm system because even though the models kept on showing development(though not consistent), actual atmospheric condition says otherwise.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8085 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:22 am

New 0Z Euro still shows low pressure entering the BOC, however by about 168 hr.'s a 1010mb low has migrated to the Western Caribbean. On this run, the low is dropped shortly afterwards. Meanwhile, the 0Z GFS continues to develop a "Campbells Chunky Soup-i-cane" from the BOC, and carries the slop over S. Fla. as a 1003mb low. AND... of course the models will continue to change.

One thing I learned a long time ago was, UNTIL the years' 1st cold front actually sweeps the entire Caribbean, the potential for a W. Caribbean or Gulf storm to form still exists. I've seen occasions where the entire Gulf were as dry as a bone, but in a matter of days the entire ITCZ surged north, with a plume of moisture congealing under a newly developed anticyclone. Will it happen and help develop one more named storm? Maybe, but then again time is working against it. It takes time for the atmosphere to moisten up. Also, October storms usually take time to stew and develop, and by the time any low might develop near Yucatan or the W. Caribbean, there may not be that much time to sit and develop prior to moving NE ahead of the deep trough forecasted to drop south at that time.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8086 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:43 am

As per the morning Miami discussion for 10/17:

a broad low pressure developing along this boundary over the SW Gulf
of Mexico lifting northeastward toward South Florida Wednesday through
Thursday...the European model (ecmwf) indicates the main swath of moisture and the
low developing along the boundary remaining farther south. If the
GFS solution is realized, above averages rainfall chances will
become a possibility. If the European model (ecmwf) solution verifies, much drier
conditions will be possible. Due to these model differences, the
long-range forecast confidence remains low at this time.

&& I'm sure the euro will be the winner :roll:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8087 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:41 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:As per the morning Miami discussion for 10/17:

a broad low pressure developing along this boundary over the SW Gulf
of Mexico lifting northeastward toward South Florida Wednesday through
Thursday...the European model (ecmwf) indicates the main swath of moisture and the
low developing along the boundary remaining farther south. If the
GFS solution is realized, above averages rainfall chances will
become a possibility. If the European model (ecmwf) solution verifies, much drier
conditions will be possible. Due to these model differences, the
long-range forecast confidence remains low at this time.

&& I'm sure the euro will be the winner :roll:

gfs has been bad but i took a look at the gfs and that scenario makes sense for south florida this time of the year..however, just because it makes sense is hardly a reason for it to occur, we have to yield to euro until further notice
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8088 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:44 am

This is one area and for this time of year that GFS has done well. Now, that doesn't mean with its problems this year that it will be correct either. We'll see..
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#8089 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:03 pm

As per the Euro, it looks like something will try to develop here, but get sucked into a possible monsoonal system and then slingshot into the Gulf.
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#8090 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:41 pm

Possible Subtropical area of Interest in the NE Atlantic within the next 5-days.

2. A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re:

#8091 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:31 am

spiral wrote:Image


a rare tampa hit..ha
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Re: Re:

#8092 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:23 am

jlauderdal wrote:
spiral wrote:http://i57.tinypic.com/qsjbpw.jpg


a rare tampa hit..ha


the setup is there for such a thing so it can't be ruled out

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Re: Re:

#8093 Postby lovingseason2013 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:54 am

jlauderdal wrote:
spiral wrote:Image


a rare tampa hit..ha

That is Charlotte Harbor and not Tampa Bay by the way
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8094 Postby asd123 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:25 pm

ECMWF shows what I think is a disorganized mess of heavy rain and wind:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... seus_8.png 850 mb wind around 65 mph (central Florida panhandle) and on Wunderground ECMWF wundermap shows heavy rain for next Saturday for much of Florida
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8095 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:03 pm

lovingseason2013 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
spiral wrote:Image


a rare tampa hit..ha

That is Charlotte Harbor and not Tampa Bay by the way

thanks...im all for getting it correct
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8096 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:55 am

Image
12z GFS... Hurricane landfall SW Florida/Ft Myers... 240 Hours...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8097 Postby asd123 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:35 pm

Strong tropical storm coming for Florida next week:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_33.png
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8098 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:42 pm

asd123 wrote:Strong tropical storm coming for Florida next week:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_33.png


system is being discussed in the 93L models thread
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8099 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:18 am

I am reposting this from the TD Nine models thread.

I would want to see GFS.GEM,NAVIGEM,HWRF,UKMET and yes ECMWF too to have big upgrades and have trustworthy global models in the near future.I am dreaming right?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8100 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:42 am

Euro is developing another storm in about nine days on the end of a frontal boundary.
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