Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

The euro has not been updating for the last two runs, either on free or pay (weatherbell) sites. I could not find any explanation.

the model has been running fine. It is an issue with those websites, not the model itself

[wxman57]

Neither the GFS or EC is developing anything in the tropics over the next week or two. Could it be the season is over? I think we'll see one or two short-lived storms before the season ends.

[blp]

The euro has not been updating for the last two runs, either on free or pay (weatherbell) sites. I could not find any explanation.

the model has been running fine. It is an issue with those websites, not the model itself

I know the model is running because you can see the low resolution version on the Euro's site but something must be wrong with how the output is getting transmitted to various sites.

[Alyono]

The euro has not been updating for the last two runs, either on free or pay (weatherbell) sites. I could not find any explanation.

the model has been running fine. It is an issue with those websites, not the model itself

I know the model is running because you can see the low resolution version on the Euro's site but something must be wrong with how the output is getting transmitted to various sites.

The data has been transmitted just fine. I've seen the full high res without issues. It is a weatherbell problem

[blp]

The NAVGEM, CMC, GFS and FIM continue to advertise development C.Atlantic wave around 180hrs the timeframes have been coming down so something to keep an eye on.

[Stormcenter]

Are you sure about that?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.
.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND HOLDS FIRM WELL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL HAVE
SOME GRADIENT COMPRESSION AT TIMES AS WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
GULF. THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARY KEEN ON ONE WAVE LATER IN THE
WEEK THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER. THE GFS TAKES THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST AS A POSSIBLE DEPRESSION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SAME FEATURE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEXT MONDAY. DESPITE THIS OUTCOME...THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ENOUGH TO BRING A HIGH TIDAL RESPONSE TO
EAST-FACING SHORES LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS THURSDAY ONWARD BUT MAY BE
LIMITED TO NEAR COASTAL AREAS IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. 24/RR

Neither the GFS or EC is developing anything in the tropics over the next week or two. Could it be the season is over? I think we'll see one or two short-lived storms before the season ends.

[AJC3]

Are you sure about that?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND HOLDS FIRM WELL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL HAVE
SOME GRADIENT COMPRESSION AT TIMES AS WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
GULF. THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARY KEEN ON ONE WAVE LATER IN THE
WEEK THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER. THE GFS TAKES THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST AS A POSSIBLE DEPRESSION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SAME FEATURE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEXT MONDAY. DESPITE THIS OUTCOME...THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ENOUGH TO BRING A HIGH TIDAL RESPONSE TO
EAST-FACING SHORES LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS THURSDAY ONWARD BUT MAY BE
LIMITED TO NEAR COASTAL AREAS IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. 24/RR

Neither the GFS or EC is developing anything in the tropics over the next week or two. Could it be the season is over? I think we'll see one or two short-lived storms before the season ends.

He's probably pretty sure, as am I, since the low they're talking about: 1) forms in the subtropics, not the tropics, and 2) deepens mostly due to baroclinic (non-tropical) processes

[Dean4Storms]

Are you sure about that?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.
.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND HOLDS FIRM WELL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL HAVE
SOME GRADIENT COMPRESSION AT TIMES AS WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
GULF. THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARY KEEN ON ONE WAVE LATER IN THE
WEEK THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER. THE GFS TAKES THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST AS A POSSIBLE DEPRESSION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SAME FEATURE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEXT MONDAY. DESPITE THIS OUTCOME...THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ENOUGH TO BRING A HIGH TIDAL RESPONSE TO
EAST-FACING SHORES LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS THURSDAY ONWARD BUT MAY BE
LIMITED TO NEAR COASTAL AREAS IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. 24/RR

Neither the GFS or EC is developing anything in the tropics over the next week or two. Could it be the season is over? I think we'll see one or two short-lived storms before the season ends.

All I've seen is a mid level trough forming and a possible surface low that moves northward, don't know how they made a jump to a Tropical Depression!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a hurricane in Western Caribbean but at 384 hours.

[Alyono]

another phantom from Model Uccelleni

[somethingfunny]

another phantom from Model Uccelleni

Why do you call it that?

[Alyono]

another phantom from Model Uccelleni

Why do you call it that?

NWS model and the NWS director has done some things so incredibly absurd (such as not being allowed to use wind data to estimate wind speed). Plus, the same NWS director used to be NCEP director and he had a chance to rectify some of the glaring faults with the GFS (hint... the data assimilation scheme is the least technologically advanced in the world using 3DVAR. That old school way of thinking needs to adapt with the times and go to 4DVAR)

[crownweather]

another phantom from Model Uccelleni

Why do you call it that?

NWS model and the NWS director has done some things so incredibly absurd (such as not being allowed to use wind data to estimate wind speed). Plus, the same NWS director used to be NCEP director and he had a chance to rectify some of the glaring faults with the GFS (hint... the data assimilation scheme is the least technologically advanced in the world using 3DVAR. That old school way of thinking needs to adapt with the times and go to 4DVAR)

Tell us what you really think. lol.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I like to call the GFS:Good For Sh-t..

[TheStormExpert]

I prefer to call the GFS "Global Fantasy System"!

[cycloneye]

GFS is turning into a joke.

[hurricanetrack]

Perhaps it is time to stop running the GFS and just pay for and use the ECMWF. If the GFS is not working properly, stop running it. After the Titanic sank, they stopped using it

[TheStormExpert]

They seriously need to do some MAJOR upgrading and IMPROVING to that model real soon before it loses all proper respect and is taking as a joke/entertainment like the Canadian.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So it dropped the gulf storm it was showing developing last week in 10 days, only to now show another in 16 days. what a joke

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: I prefer to call the GFS "Global Fantasy System"!

or Global Fuss System !