Global model runs discussion

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tolakram
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Re: Re:

#7361 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:55 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Hammy wrote:
ninel conde wrote:unless my map reading ability is lacking the euro at 10 days shows absolutely nothing.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014083112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f120.gif

model shows a strong depression or storm off of Africa at 120 hours.


at day 10 it shows nothing that made it across


What does 'making it across' have to do with anything?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7362 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:31 am

Next CV storm perhaps?

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#7363 Postby ninel conde » Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:36 am

06Z GFS SHOWS NOTHING AT 168.
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Re:

#7364 Postby Siker » Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:56 am

ninel conde wrote:06Z GFS SHOWS NOTHING AT 168.


Wrong, it just has a weaker reflection as it moves more northerly. Still has at least a TD by 120.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7365 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:26 am

Both GFS and Euro at 120 hours

Image

Image
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#7366 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:00 am

FIM and NAVGEM join the other globals with some possible development in the East Atlantic in about 1 week from now. As Alyono pointed out though, we may just be dealing with a strong wave that may form into a depression or storm briefly only to encounter hostile conditions once it moves further west.

06Z FIM-9:
Image

06Z NAVGEM:
Image
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#7367 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:13 am

not even worth looking at the E Atl

the Gulf is where we ay get a significant TC next week. CMC has joined the GFS in predicting a Gulf TC
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#7368 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:18 am

So that members can see the models for the possible GOM system, here they are but both are long-range:

GFS 336 hours:
Image

GEM 240 hours:
Image
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Re:

#7369 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:22 am

Alyono wrote:not even worth looking at the E Atl

the Gulf is where we ay get a significant TC next week. CMC has joined the GFS in predicting a Gulf TC


the models are picking up on this area and its from the monsoon gyre and as we know that type of storm can be very devastating or could be a strung out mess but basing it off the models there could be a strong hurricane mid next week anywhere from the western Caribbean to the BOC and where it heads from there is only a guess as its too early to tell

ps: Does it look like the monsoon Gyre is starting a little early this year

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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7370 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:23 am

:uarrow:

Seeing such a wide timing disparity makes me hesitant to call it model "agreement", but that GFS system is festering in the NW Caribbean at the 240hr point where CMC has it in the central Gulf, so the disparity isn't as wide as 240vs336 first appears. We'll see what happens.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7371 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:25 am

somethingfunny wrote::uarrow:

Seeing such a wide timing disparity makes me hesitant to call it model "agreement", but that GFS system is festering in the NW Caribbean at the 240hr point where CMC has it in the central Gulf, so the disparity isn't as wide as 240vs336 first appears. We'll see what happens.


Yeah you are right, here is the 06Z 240 hour GFS image with a broad low in the NW Caribbean:

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7372 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:27 am

If Euro begins to show the GOM thing,then is a real consensus.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7373 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:38 am

I'd say we're starting to evolve some consistency with this mid Sept storm in the Gulf. It also looks to have a large size to it. Everyone from Mexico to Florida could possibly be affected by it? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7374 Postby Senobia » Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:15 pm

:uarrow: Acccccccccck!
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#7375 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:30 pm

I'd be wary of the GFS's forecast of a significant cyclone, at least until we actually get a disturbance to track. The storm might just be a result of the GFS bullishly bringing the MJO into Octant 1, which seems unlikely given the other models. The GFS has been struggling with the MJO as of late.

Image
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#7376 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:10 pm

ECMWF even more bullish on Eastern Atlantic development. Here is how the 12Z run ends with what looks like a low-end tropical storm heading west in the MDR. This is the most bullish I have seen the ECMWF on a Cape Verde system all hurricane season, so worth noting:

Image
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#7377 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:27 pm

Concerning the Euro, am I correct that it's more likely to fail to catch something that forms than it is to falsely show something that ends up not forming? (I'm discussing with someone outside the forum at the moment and explaining the different models)
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#7378 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:27 pm

all those 200 hours forecast tooo far out wont waste my time
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#7379 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:29 pm

Let's see if they keep it in the future model runs.. Isn't dry air still a problem in the MDR?
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Re:

#7380 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:40 pm

[quote="pgoss11"]Let's see if they keep it in the future model runs.. Isn't dry air still a problem in the MDR?[/quoteit is ate good looking wave on satursday
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