Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

all those 200 hours forecast tooo far out wont waste my time

Development starts from a wave that rolls off Africa in about 1 week which is in the medium-range guidance, which is well within the Euro's range of accuracy for genesis prediction.

Concerning the Euro, am I correct that it's more likely to fail to catch something that forms than it is to falsely show something that ends up not forming? (I'm discussing with someone outside the forum at the moment and explaining the different models)

Yes I think so. If the ECMWF is showing development, especially in the MDR, I find that usually it means development is likely. That said, we will want to see a couple of more runs to see if they continue to showing development.

[TheStormExpert]

I remember a couple of weeks ago the Euro was showing a full blown hurricane out in the Atlantic threatening Bermuda for only one run.

[gatorcane]

I remember a couple of weeks ago the Euro was showing a full blown hurricane out in the Atlantic threatening Bermuda for only one run.

Yep and that ended up becoming hurricane Cristobal even though that one run wasn't quite the exact track it followed as that initial run showed Cristobal heading NE of the Leewards, the point is it DID develop.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Be nice to have atleast one long tracker this year.

[Hammy]

I remember a couple of weeks ago the Euro was showing a full blown hurricane out in the Atlantic threatening Bermuda for only one run.

Something I've noticed (with several of the models in fact) is that there have been several instances where a storm develops, and it will show up in the 8-10 day runs, then as it gets closer to 4-6 days it'll weaken or drop, then show it again when it gets to within 3-5 days or so.

[SFLcane]

Is that really the euro showing a TC in the central atl? I'am watching...

[pgoss11]

It is

[tolakram]

Euro showing back to back waves developing off of Africa. One weak and heading northwest and one stronger and staying west. When was the last time the euro showed back to back development?

[blp]

Euro showing back to back waves developing off of Africa. One weak and heading northwest and one stronger and staying west. When was the last time the euro showed back to back development?

Long time has me interested.

[meriland23]

GFS 384 hours out

[SFLcane]

Even stronger developing TW of African coast in this 00z run from the European. Appears to be not much of a threat though heads north out to sea.

[Alyono]

GFS showing 2 more GOM systems

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_33.png

This moves into Mexico as a weak system

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_33.png

This second one as a cane near the border

[tolakram]

First two saved pics is the euro. These are different storms, the first dissipates soon after 120h.





GFS 0Z 180h shows both storms.




The 6Z GFS has something over Cape Verde in 90 hours and shows both storms, one just emerging off of Africa, at 180h.

[tolakram]

First wave, the 90h storm pictured above, has its own thread now: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116685&hilit=&view=unread#unread

[meriland23]

GFS shows a impressive system hitting mexico\ almost kissing S TX. Other systems were fishing, then stalled

[somethingfunny]

GFS shows a impressive system hitting mexico\ almost kissing S TX. Other systems were fishing, then stalled

G by mid-September would be pretty darn good for a "dead season". It could even be H, if that other BOC storm in the midrange manages to develop as well. I am a little bit suspicious of these storms though, considering that a negative MJO/KW phase is moving in and it was strong enough to shut down the WPAC for a month.

[gatorcane]

GFS showing 2 more GOM systems

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_33.png

This moves into Mexico as a weak system

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_33.png

This second one as a cane near the border

The GEM is now showing this low too but never manages to make it over water so doesn't develop. It's over Belize as a 1006MB low at 162 hours then moves NW to just south of the BOC.

[blp]

Even stronger developing TW of African coast in this 00z run from the European. Appears to be not much of a threat though heads north out to sea.

[]http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/f240.gif[/img]

So far the Euro has been very consistent on the intensity. On the track it has delyaed it some since yesteday had it reaching 40W. One thing I noticied is that it intially develops the front wave and then it get's smashed by what looks like an ULL so it has a similar idea to the GFS just that the GFS develops both areas. The other difference is the GFS has basically a thin ridge and everything goes OTS where as the Euro has a little more of ridge. The GFS is really hard to look at lately past 144hrs it has busted badly on several waves.

[Alyono]

GFS shows a impressive system hitting mexico\ almost kissing S TX. Other systems were fishing, then stalled

G by mid-September would be pretty darn good for a "dead season". It could even be H, if that other BOC storm in the midrange manages to develop as well. I am a little bit suspicious of these storms though, considering that a negative MJO/KW phase is moving in and it was strong enough to shut down the WPAC for a month.

should start to become more favorable for the Gulf in about 10 days

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... l#forecast

[SFLcane]

Some noise on the models but no real threats as of yet.