Global model runs discussion

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gatorcane
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#8141 Postby gatorcane » Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:49 pm

Really curious how the GFS does this year when it comes Atlantic hurricanes with the upgrades but I am just not optimistic still especially after last year's debacle. Though the ECMWF has generally not been a good performer at forecasting cyclogenesis historically, especially in the WPAC, it has been my model of choice the past couple of seasons as it has performed quite well in the Atlantic basin. Until I see something that tells me otherwise, will continue to lean towards the ECMWF.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8142 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:41 pm

Especially 5 days on out. Throw cmc in there as well. They were absolutey horrid for my area this winter. If they had even come close to being partially correct we would be looking like Boston down here. :lol:
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8143 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:33 pm

It looks like kudos to GFS for the most part nailed the strength of the South Pacific Cyclone PAM and did it with many days before the system formed.ECMWF also did it some days after the first GFS run showed it.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8144 Postby euro6208 » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:57 am

GFS no longer providing surface pressure runs???
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8145 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:02 pm

Kudos to GFS for being spot on with Maysak. Predicted low pressure and is now a strong cat 5 typhoon.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8146 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:19 am

Interesting comment.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 1h 1 hour ago

ECMWF worshipers should remember it is not the king in Atlantic anymore--GFS and ensemble has been better since 2012.
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#8147 Postby gatorcane » Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:09 pm

In the super long-range GFS (2 weeks out), it develops some kind of weak low from what looks like the tail end of a front and retrogrades it west over the SE Bahamas.

I wouldn't normally look at model runs this early, but given the summer rainy season seems underway across Florida (over a month ahead of schedule), and with waters warmer than normal across the Gulf and Western Atlantic, seems to be worth keeping an eye on the models in case we get a pre-season surprise:

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#8148 Postby gatorcane » Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:20 am

The GFS is still showing some kind of unsettled weather to get left behind by a cold front pushing off the East Coast of the United States with a frontal low east of the Bahamas that seems to retrograde back WSW (and weaken) in the long-range. Might be something to watch with warmer than normal SSTs across that part of the basin, though shear looks high (as expected this time of year).

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#8149 Postby crownweather » Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:21 pm

12Z GFS model still has a low pressure system hanging out near the Florida Peninsula in the 192-240 hour range. Take a look at the 12Z Canadian model. First run that I know of that shows basically the same thing.

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#8150 Postby gatorcane » Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:14 pm

The ECMWF (12Z run) now showing something at the 500MB level (albeit weak) lifting out to the NW from the area east of the Bahamas:

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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8151 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:02 pm

The feature the guidance is latching on to is likely a mesoscale convective system with a meso low that will meander off the Northern Gulf behind a powerful storm complex expected across portions of Texas and Louisiana on Monday into Tuesday. An usually strong late season cold front will push across the Southern Plains into the Gulf by mid week, so it is probably more of a frontal wave than anything of tropical origin. A harbinger of things to come during the early season? Possibly. 1957 is looking like a good analog so far and Audrey developed on June 25th of that year... :wink:
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8152 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:22 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The feature the guidance is latching on to is likely a mesoscale convective system with a meso low that will meander off the Northern Gulf behind a powerful storm complex expected across portions of Texas and Louisiana on Monday into Tuesday. An usually strong late season cold front will push across the Southern Plains into the Gulf by mid week, so it is probably more of a frontal wave than anything of tropical origin. A harbinger of things to come during the early season? Possibly. 1957 is looking like a good analog so far and Audrey developed on June 25th of that year... :wink:


Not really, the low the Canadian and GFS latch onto comes from down around the Bahamas by the weekend.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8153 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 26, 2015 7:01 am

euro6208 wrote:GFS no longer providing surface pressure runs???


Contacted Levi and this is what he has to say. Too bad typhoon season is year round...

Hello,

I've had to remove it until further notice because it has been detecting pressure centers incorrectly for the WPAC domain only. I don't yet know why this is the case. All other regions work properly. I will be looking into it as typhoon season approaches.

Levi
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#8154 Postby gatorcane » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:05 am

The ECMWF has joined the GFS now and is showing what looks like a low of tropical origins spinning up next week from a trough left behind over the Bahamas. SSTs are running above normal there so they could support some development if upper-level conditions cooperate:

Image

06Z GFS:
Image

GEM:
Image
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8155 Postby StarmanHDB » Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:15 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The feature the guidance is latching on to is likely a mesoscale convective system with a meso low that will meander off the Northern Gulf behind a powerful storm complex expected across portions of Texas and Louisiana on Monday into Tuesday. An usually strong late season cold front will push across the Southern Plains into the Gulf by mid week, so it is probably more of a frontal wave than anything of tropical origin. A harbinger of things to come during the early season? Possibly. 1957 is looking like a good analog so far and Audrey developed on June 25th of that year... :wink:


Not really, the low the Canadian and GFS latch onto comes from down around the Bahamas by the weekend.


Hmmmmmmm....Nice area of cyclonic spin currently churning over the Texas panhandle. Considering the above quotes, this should be interesting to follow. 8-)
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Re:

#8156 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:07 pm

The scenario has support too, the 00z CMC is showing (overzealous, certainly) a cyclone developing in early-May.

Image

And even the 00z ECMWF, although weaker in nature and appears to get ejected OTS before it can really try anything.

Image
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#8157 Postby gatorcane » Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:20 pm

12Z ECMWF:

Image
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8158 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:39 pm

What model shows the low pressure by the yucatan?

4/29
High pressure behind the dry front is then expected to quickly push
to the east and into the western Atlantic. This will allow for a
more easterly flow regime to prevail Sunday through Monday. Deeper
moisture will then return for the first part of next week as models
depict an area of low pressure developing across the Yucatan Channel
and pushing to the northeast and toward the Bahamas. This will
return decent chances for showers and possible thunderstorms through
midweek.
Now that I think about it. Models tend to pop up lows around a broad low. :roll:

&&
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#8159 Postby gatorcane » Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:44 am

Getting interesting with the ECMWF bringing this system into the SE U.S. coastline. GFS and ECMWF 00Z runs below at 192 hours and are in excellent agreement on strength and location of this low:

Image
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8160 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:24 am

NWS Charleston, SC mentions it:


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO TEMPORARY
RIDGING BY MID WEEK BEFORE AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE OVER THE ATLANTIC...ESTABLISHING ITSELF INTO
A BERMUDA HIGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO A POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW THAT ORIGINATES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. WHILE THERE IS A DEEPENING OF
MARITIME AIR DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK...THERE
STILL ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE NOR FORCING ASIDE FROM THE SEA BREEZE.
PLUS SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA ARE STILL WELL ENOUGH REMOVED FROM ANY
POSSIBLE HYBRID SURFACE LOW
. THUS WE DON/T HAVE ANY MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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