Global model runs discussion

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gatorcane
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#8041 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:21 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:^^ Now that's pretty good agreement we will see a BOC system in the next week..where it heads after is the question..


The GFS model sends it ENE across the Gulf and into Florida in the long-range while the ECMWF buries it in the BOC. The GFS just loves Florida and living up to the "Giving Florida Storms" name! :) One of these times though it will finally verify.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#8042 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:31 am

gatorcane wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:^^ Now that's pretty good agreement we will see a BOC system in the next week..where it heads after is the question..


The GFS model sends it ENE across the Gulf and into Florida in the long-range while the ECMWF buries it in the BOC. The GFS just loves Florida. One of these times though it will finally verify.


Morning,

This is the time of year us in Florida watch anything late in the season form in this area. With the cold fronts coming down they tend to pick these up and drag them across Florida. The question is in what form and where across Florida.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8043 Postby BigA » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:37 am

NAVGEM now on board the crossover idea. So now many models are showing some form of it. But it's still a long ways out, so we'll have to see if the prediction persists.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8044 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:49 am

Something in GOM will likely be frontal and very disorganized with rain for Florida. (IF) it even developes
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#8045 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:14 am

If something forms in the Bay of Campeche this time of year, they usually end up on the northern gulf coast anywhere from Mobile eastward. But there hasn't been anything usual about this year so far.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8046 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:46 am

West Florida wouldn't be out of the question either.
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#8047 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:20 am

12Z GFS shows yet another crossover into the BOC. The crossover starts as little as 3 days from now and completes in about 36 or so where the system moves little in the BOC. Let's see what the ECMWF and other globals do.
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#8048 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:32 pm

12Z Euro continues to show this crossing over into the BOC. We are discussing it in the EPAC 92E invest thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116860
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8049 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:48 pm

I don't think the idea of a true crossover has merit. There may be some vorticity that helps spin up an Atlantic storm, but I don't think there will be an actual crossover. I don't really know though.

So far 12Z euro is weaker, moving east at 192h.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8050 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:52 pm

Vorticity spread out at 216. Low is just north of the YP.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8051 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:04 pm

Gone at the end of the run, 240h. I'm guessing it moves inland over the YP without any development.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8052 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:55 pm

tolakram wrote:Gone at the end of the run, 240h. I'm guessing it moves inland over the YP without any development.


I saw that to but it will change at least 10 times. If it does form. :roll:
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#8053 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:04 pm

Looks like all models still hinting at some sort of development in the BOC from some cross-over energy. Will it be pulled towards the ENE through the Gulf (GFS/NAVGEM) or pushed SE into Mexico (EURO/CMC) remains to be seen.
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Re:

#8054 Postby CourierPR » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:43 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like all models still hinting at some sort of development in the BOC from some cross-over energy. Will it be pulled towards the ENE through the Gulf (GFS/NAVGEM) or pushed SE into Mexico (EURO/CMC) remains to be seen.



Joe Bastardi tweeted to watch the southern Gulf next week for development.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8055 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:54 pm

Euro has LOTS of cool, dry air racing SW into the BoC next week. Not good for TC development. More of a frontal low that moves inland into MX.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8056 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:Euro has LOTS of cool, dry air racing SW into the BoC next week. Not good for TC development. More of a frontal low that moves inland into MX.

As per the Miami discussion on 10/15:
By
wesdnesday morning abundant mositure returns to South Florida from
the Gulf of Mexico with a gradual increase in showers and
thunderstorms over the area. However, lapse rates are not very
impressive, around -5 to -6 for 500-700mb.

I would say just have to watch if anything gets going down there next week but we all know nothing like the previous GFS runs will happen. :lol:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8057 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:49 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Euro has LOTS of cool, dry air racing SW into the BoC next week. Not good for TC development. More of a frontal low that moves inland into MX.

As per the Miami discussion on 10/15:
By
wesdnesday morning abundant mositure returns to South Florida from
the Gulf of Mexico with a gradual increase in showers and
thunderstorms over the area. However, lapse rates are not very
impressive, around -5 to -6 for 500-700mb.

I would say just have to watch if anything gets going down there next week but we all know nothing like the previous GFS runs will happen. :lol:


The CPC also predicts (as of 10/14/14) that the climo in the BOC and environs hits the above average level for chances for tropical development starting 10/22/14 through the end of October. We will see what happens.
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#8058 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:33 pm

Just to let you know, some discussion on this possible EPAC crossover BOC system is being discussed in the EPAC invest thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116860
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8059 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:50 pm

Here's an oldie but a goodie just prior to my time in the weather business (select the 1979 system):

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Henri
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#8060 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:43 pm

Frank2 wrote:Here's an oldie but a goodie just prior to my time in the weather business (select the 1979 system):

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Henri


Something like that would be highly unlikely with strong cold advection (and dry air advection) into the BoC next week.
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