Global model runs discussion

[floridasun78]

so may not happen that so far out 312 hour and so

[cycloneye]

18z GFS still shows the idea of a late season intense hurricane getting pulled out of the W. Carribean and heading towards FL and the SE U.S. (Further west than 12z run though) in the extreme long range (384hrs.) on October 14th. Knowing how horrible the GFS has performed this season (especially in the W. Carribean and Tropical Atlantic region) I'm betting the storm (most likely a Phantom storm) will be dropped in a few runs at most. Still thought it was worth mentioning for the sake of it, and the fact that it's quite entertaining!

Well,I posted last Friday afternoon the beginning of GFS showing the SW Caribbean development (See graphic a few posts back) and two days later it is still with it,just saying. If the Euro begins to show it then it would be game on but until that happens if it does so,GFS is alone.

[TheStormExpert]

That's also 2 days before my birthday so that's why it also interest me.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS still shows the idea of a late season intense hurricane getting pulled out of the W. Carribean and heading towards FL and the SE U.S. (Further west than 12z run though) in the extreme long range (384hrs.) on October 14th. Knowing how horrible the GFS has performed this season (especially in the W. Carribean and Tropical Atlantic region) I'm betting the storm (most likely a Phantom storm) will be dropped in a few runs at most. Still thought it was worth mentioning for the sake of it, and the fact that it's quite entertaining!

Well,I posted last Friday afternoon the beginning of GFS showing the SW Caribbean development (See graphic a few posts back) and two days later it is still with it,just saying. If the Euro begins to show it then it would be game on but until that happens if it does so,GFS is alone.

That's interesting though because this mornings 6z run showed nothing more than only a weak low pressure in the SW Caribbean (384hrs. out) like it was advertising for days!

So it went from showing a weak low in the SW Caribbean on the 6z, to a full blown major hurricane hitting south Florida on 12z both 384hrs. out.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS still shows the idea of a late season intense hurricane getting pulled out of the W. Carribean and heading towards FL and the SE U.S. (Further west than 12z run though) in the extreme long range (384hrs.) on October 14th. Knowing how horrible the GFS has performed this season (especially in the W. Carribean and Tropical Atlantic region) I'm betting the storm (most likely a Phantom storm) will be dropped in a few runs at most. Still thought it was worth mentioning for the sake of it, and the fact that it's quite entertaining!

Well,I posted last Friday afternoon the beginning of GFS showing the SW Caribbean development (See graphic a few posts back) and two days later it is still with it,just saying. If the Euro begins to show it then it would be game on but until that happens if it does so,GFS is alone.

Actually the ECM is hinting at lowering pressures down there as well in the 10-15. Saw JB post about it on twitter awhile ago.

[WPBWeather]

18z GFS still shows the idea of a late season intense hurricane getting pulled out of the W. Carribean and heading towards FL and the SE U.S. (Further west than 12z run though) in the extreme long range (384hrs.) on October 14th. Knowing how horrible the GFS has performed this season (especially in the W. Carribean and Tropical Atlantic region) I'm betting the storm (most likely a Phantom storm) will be dropped in a few runs at most. Still thought it was worth mentioning for the sake of it, and the fact that it's quite entertaining!

Well,I posted last Friday afternoon the beginning of GFS showing the SW Caribbean development (See graphic a few posts back) and two days later it is still with it,just saying. If the Euro begins to show it then it would be game on but until that happens if it does so,GFS is alone.

Actually the ECM is hinting at lowering pressures down there as well in the 10-15. Saw JB post about it on twitter awhile ago.

The season will be over no sooner than the end of November (see disclaimer below). Not sure about what may happen in the meantime, but there is no El Nino in sight yet. Weather experts like K and G say we have dry sinking air--but can't say why we do or why many models and their earlier predictions went wrong. We seem to be at the limits of our current science and understanding of what we think we know about meteorology.

Until we know more, take your pick of the bloggers above about what may happen.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS still shows the idea of a late season intense hurricane getting pulled out of the W. Carribean and heading towards FL and the SE U.S. (Further west than 12z run though) in the extreme long range (384hrs.) on October 14th. Knowing how horrible the GFS has performed this season (especially in the W. Carribean and Tropical Atlantic region) I'm betting the storm (most likely a Phantom storm) will be dropped in a few runs at most. Still thought it was worth mentioning for the sake of it, and the fact that it's quite entertaining!

Well,I posted last Friday afternoon the beginning of GFS showing the SW Caribbean development (See graphic a few posts back) and two days later it is still with it,just saying. If the Euro begins to show it then it would be game on but until that happens if it does so,GFS is alone.

Actually the ECM is hinting at lowering pressures down there as well in the 10-15. Saw JB post about it on twitter awhile ago.

Yep, here is his post on Twitter from a few hours ago if it's worth anything.

‏@BigJoeBastardi
Mid October looks wild..major cold shot into western,perhaps central US, ECWMF has favorable tropical look for possible US problems in 10-15

5:33 PM - 28 Sep 2014

[SFLcane]

quite the clustering in the western Caribbean sea on the GFS ensembles..

[Yellow Evan]

GFS does this every year. That's what actors do. They entertain.

[blp]

The difference between the GFS and Euro is partly the MJO which the GFS forecasts to be favorable in the SW Carib. while the Euro keeps it away from the Atlantic. Hard to bite on the GFS even though it is in the right place and time of the year.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS starts lowering pressures around 192 and by 240 starts developing a closed low while its still far out it seems to be bringing development closer in time as opposed to farther in time and it does have some support from the euro 10 to 15 day and the Canadian a little so this might need to be watched in the coming week to see if the models jump aboard or the GFS drops it like a bad habit

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 06z GFS drops the idea of a major hurricane forming in the Western/SW Caribbean and now only shows a weak disorganized strung out Tropical Storm at best.

Might as well just kill off the GFS for the remainder of the season since it is a HUGE joke!

[Fego]

Deja vu. It did the same with pouch 41L, bringing it to the Caribbean as a Cabo Verde low rider. There were so many runs that the time frame got to less than 120 hours. When models performance are evaluated, that include this kind of phantom runs?

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems as though its gone back to the old AVN days as far as performance goes which blows up even a cumulus cloud into a major hurricane and is even outdoing the Canadian model as far as phantom storms go

[wyq614]

Anyway it has to be watched, remember that the water all the way from SW Caribbean to W Caribbean is completely untouched this season with probably high OHC. If it is to form something, it will be something very big with rapid development (something like Paloma 2008), even if the upper-level winds is not so favorable, or somehow marginally favorable, a gradual development is still logical.

[TheStormExpert]

Now the 12z GFS shows a TC forming in the far Eastern Atlantic in the real long range.

I think it's time to officially ignore the GFS until it properly gets an upgrade that'll fix it, or until it can finally predict something and be right about it.

At this point I'm calling this season ALMOST officially dead! Time to start looking forward to what could be a interesting winter with the oncoming El Niño (especially for us here in the Southeast).

[Frank2]

My guess in a few days the models will not show anything down there - anything over 144 hours is too far out to be reliable...

[wxman57]

My guess in a few days the models will not show anything down there - anything over 144 hours is too far out to be reliable...

Didn't even take that long. The 12Z GFS dropped the idea of a Caribbean storm.

[WPBWeather]

Now the 12z GFS shows a TC forming in the far Eastern Atlantic in the real long range.

I think it's time to officially ignore the GFS until it properly gets an upgrade that'll fix it, or until it can finally predict something and be right about it.

At this point I'm calling this season ALMOST officially dead! Time to start looking forward to what could be a interesting winter with the oncoming El Niño (especially for us here in the Southeast).

What El Nino is that?

[TheStormExpert]

Now the 12z GFS shows a TC forming in the far Eastern Atlantic in the real long range.

I think it's time to officially ignore the GFS until it properly gets an upgrade that'll fix it, or until it can finally predict something and be right about it.

At this point I'm calling this season ALMOST officially dead! Time to start looking forward to what could be a interesting winter with the oncoming El Niño (especially for us here in the Southeast).

What El Nino is that?

Seriously? The El Niño that I'm talking about is the one forecasted to develop in the next several months. It's been advertised to develop at some point in 2014 since late last Fall. Even before then we were kind of overdue for another El Niño episode sooner or later. Even back in 2012 they originally forecasted for a below average hurricane season due to forecasters expecting an El Niño to form at some point during the 2012 season and we all know how big that busted.