Tropical wave Ex Ana

[boca]

I'm watching carefully what happens off the coast of the Dominican Republic to see if thunderstorms start to consolidate along the north coast.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[jlauderdal]

I'm watching carefully what happens off the coast of the Dominican Republic to see if thunderstorms start to consolidate along the north coast.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

im not sure how they get a center south of cooba but lets see what happens, saturday we had a wave come through and 12 hours later we had a depression in the gulf, this thing is probably moving way to fast for any consolidation

[KWT]

Convection flaring up only because its running into a ULL, granted a weakening ULL but its still causing it to flare.

Sadly Ana just moves too fast for its own good.

[Stormcenter]

Sorry but nothing is "sad" in my opinion about not seeing a tropical system develop and cause destruction
to already devestated areas from past seasons.

Convection flaring up only because its running into a ULL, granted a weakening ULL but its still causing it to flare.

Sadly Ana just moves too fast for its own good.

[tailgater]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at latest sat loops it could pass on the south side of Dominican Republic and Haiti.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html
Should move due west for a little while

[lrak]

Whats left of it looks to be passing the border at about 16.5 north heading due west Maybe some Jamaica flare up is coming

[lrak]

Is Ana coming back to life?

[Dean4Storms]

Flare up of convection enhanced by the ULL, still this needs to be watched. I'm not writing regeneration off that is for sure.

[tailgater]

Is Ana coming back to life?

She's got a weak pulse at least. I don't know about the ULL enchancment there doesn't seem to be much shear on the Mona passage area.

Surface plots show no closed low.

[Ptarmigan]

Flare up of convection enhanced by the ULL, still this needs to be watched. I'm not writing regeneration off that is for sure.

I agree. I remember Hurricane Isidore and Lili of 2002 became a tropical wave after they encountered land in Isidore's case or shear in Lili's case. Both ended up as a major hurricanes.

[jasons2k]

This just came to me:

While watching the tropics, the hardest thing to keep is your prespective.

I'll explain:

If this wave was not formerly a named storm, if we had just woken-up today with this flare-up in convection, this thread would be hopping. But since it's the leftovers of a formerly stronger/named system, most just assume it is dead. Nobody cares or pays attention anymore.

The only difference is your prespective.

In other words, keep watching. Not that I am forecasting redevelopment, but I think the wave needs to be watched in case this occurs down the road.

It's certainly not "dead" yet.

[KWT]

I totally agree with that, if this was just an invest for example for the first time everyone would be debating over this one. As others have said we have seen cases where systems have been downgraded only to come back down the line.

[vbhoutex]

I always have one eye on the GOM and/or Caribbean during the season. Been around this basin and the tropics too long not to do that automatically.

[srainhoutx]

As many saw with what became Claudette, I will take the ridicule of some any day. The Tropics very often full of surprises and those savvy enough and that have been around the Basin for enough years understand that we alway need to keep an eye on these wave/disturbances. Steps off soap box.

edit for spelling: I'm hungry.

[Pearl River]

As I have always said, "Never Say Never"!!

[Frank P]

My opinion is that IF anything were to come back from Ana it would be from the cluster north of Cuba.. nice little convection blob on the increase this afternoon in this general area

[KWT]

I suspect that a fair amount of convection is thanks to the ULL. Still its quite hard to call this one I think we could yet end up getting some regeneration in the gulf.

[wxman57]

Convection flaring up only because its running into a ULL, granted a weakening ULL but its still causing it to flare.

An interaction with just such an upper low is what helped 91L to develop into Claudette on Saturday night. The setup is nearly identical now, and what's left of Ana looks just like 91L did prior to developing. Better watch out in the eastern Gulf tomorrow night/Thursday. I'd give it at least a 30-40% shot of redevelopment now. More if it stays west of Florida.

Quite surprised it's not an invest.

[Frank P]

Long range radar loop out of Miami shows leading edge of cluster approaching SF... with just a tease that it is almost trying to band.. probably just an illusion of the radar... not sure if its trying to lift up more along the east coast or heading NW to the east gulf... guess we'll have to watch and see..

[KWT]

I do agree though Claudette had an upper high develop over it, which is a big advantage over this system IMO. Still it could well develop, certainly is quite possible over the Gulf where conditions shouldn't be that bad.

For now though convection is weakening again.