Possible L to form off the coast of TX and head E?

[attallaman]

My local TV MET and a few of the TV METs from NOLA were reporting last night that a L is forecasted to form off the TX coast sometime either late today or tomorrow and the L will track to the E. My local TV MET said last night that the weather in my area on Saturday could be very stormy with heavy rains and lots of wind, conditions similar to Ida not long ago. The system is forecasted to move quickly and sunny skies should return to my area on Sunday. Has anyone else heard anything about this possible L forming off the coast of TX?

[JonathanBelles]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
110 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DRAG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BACK TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

...

UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OPEN AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO END THE WEEKEND WHILE SURFACE LOW MOVES UNDER UPPER
SUPPORT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE E GULF SUNDAY AND FL
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AHEAD AND
ALONG FRONT AND HAD DONE SO AS WELL WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS
EXPECT SW FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR BUT SOUTHERN SOURCE
REGION OF HIGH WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY.

...

[brunota2003]

Mark has been talking about a potential Nor' Easter forming this weekend and into early next week for a few days now, and it would start down that way...we were mentioning it in the Nor' Easter thread in USA Weather as well

[attallaman]

So I shouldn't expect anything like Ida conditions here in my area on Saturday, just some rain and maybe a little wind? Just enough to mess up the weekend here? Thanks for your posts.

[wxman57]

It's a fairly common occurrence for this time of year through winter - a west Gulf low. These lows form on baroclinic zones (cold fronts) along the lower to mid Texas coast when an upper-level trof approaches from the west. The low typically forms when the vorticity center reaches west Texas. These lows can cause rough seas across the northern Gulf and moderate to heavy rain along their paths. And this is the type of low that would typically result in a significant snow/ice event along the Gulf coast into December-February.

This one won't be nearly as strong as Ida's ET low along the Mid Atlantic Coast.

[wxman57]

So I shouldn't expect anything like Ida conditions here in my area on Saturday, just some rain and maybe a little wind? Just enough to mess up the weekend here? Thanks for your posts.

Moderate rain most of Friday. Rain ending Friday evening. Clearing by around noon Saturday.

[wxgirl69]

What kind of rainfall amounts can we expect in the Deer Park area. I have errands to run all day and do not want to get stranded.

[attallaman]

So if the temperatures in my area were going to be in the 40's for highs and 30's for lows on Saturday we'd be talking about something else like sleet, freezing rain or possible snow here in my area which is very rare. I can't remember the last time we had significant snow here. It's been several years ago. Thanks for your comments Wxman57.

[srainhoutx]

Strong Low S of Galveston this morning...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tailgater]

57 did many get off the rigs looks like it's winding up pretty good down there.

When was that Noreaster that form in a simlar fashion that brought near Hurricane conditions to parts of western Fla. and snow to the Gulf states, seems like it was in the early 90's?
Okay I found it 1993, Not that this storm will rival that one but just to show what is possible from this type of storm.

1993 Storm of the Century
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Storm of the Century (1993) Satellite image by NASA of the superstorm on March 13, 1993, at 10:01 UTC.
Storm type: Cyclonic blizzard, Nor'easter
Formed: March 11, 1993
Dissipated: March 15, 1993
Maximum
amount1: 60 inches (152.4 cm) - Mt. Le Conte, TN
Lowest
pressure: 960 mbar (hPa)
Lowest
temperature: -12 degrees
Damages: $6-10 billion (2005 USD)[1]
Fatalities: 300 total
Areas affected: Canada, North America, and Central America


1Maximum snowfall or ice accretion



The Storm of the Century, also known as the ’93 Superstorm, No-Name Hurricane[citation needed] , the White Hurricane, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993, was a large cyclonic storm that occurred on March 12–March 13, 1993, on the East Coast of North America. It is unique for its intensity, massive size and wide-reaching effect. At its height the storm stretched from Canada to Central America, but its main impact was on the Eastern United States and Cuba. Areas as far south as central Alabama and Georgia received 6 to 8 inches (20 cm) of snow and areas such as Birmingham, Alabama, received up to 12 inches (30 cm) with isolated reports of 16 inches (41 cm). Even the Florida Panhandle reported up to 4 inches (10 cm)[2], with hurricane-force wind gusts and record low barometric pressures. Between Louisiana and Cuba, hurricane-force winds produced extreme storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico, which along with scattered tornadoes killed dozens of people.

[wxman57]

No evidence of any rotation in the Gulf. Looks more like an inverted trof.

[attallaman]

No evidence of any rotation in the Gulf. Looks more like an inverted trof.

57, did you agree with my last post? If the weather was colder here there would be a different kind of problem?

[wxman57]

No evidence of any rotation in the Gulf. Looks more like an inverted trof.

57, did you agree with my last post? If the weather was colder here there would be a different kind of problem?

Yes, we were talking about that at work. The kind of pattern we're in is one that may cause the Deep South some serious ice problems this winter if it persists.

[vbhoutex]

No evidence of any rotation in the Gulf. Looks more like an inverted trof.

57, did you agree with my last post? If the weather was colder here there would be a different kind of problem?

Yes, we were talking about that at work. The kind of pattern we're in is one that may cause the Deep South some serious ice problems this winter if it persists.

1st, did we have an ULL come through just west of Houston very early am this morning? A look at radar at that time did indicate turning in the mass of rain(and some training N-S). I've been out of pocket ofr a week so I haven't been able to keep up with the weather.

Interesting comment on the "winter". I thought I saw a familiar pattern beginning to set up. Persistence(and location) of that pattern will be the key to the end result.

[attallaman]

Nothing exciting to talk about here yesterday, no lightning or thunder and definitely no wind, no Ida type of weather came through here yesterday although there was some rain, not much. It's still overcast here today and my streets are still wet so it must have rained during the night. When is the sun going to return with a nice blue sky? I hope the weather is nice here for Turkey Day. I hope everyone has a nice Thanksgiving. Gobble, gobble.

[wxman57]

1st, did we have an ULL come through just west of Houston very early am this morning? A look at radar at that time did indicate turning in the mass of rain(and some training N-S). I've been out of pocket for a week so I haven't been able to keep up with the weather.

Interesting comment on the "winter". I thought I saw a familiar pattern beginning to set up. Persistence(and location) of that pattern will be the key to the end result.

Yes, the upper low passed us around sunrise. Could be quite an interesting winter across the south.

[Ivanhater]

1st, did we have an ULL come through just west of Houston very early am this morning? A look at radar at that time did indicate turning in the mass of rain(and some training N-S). I've been out of pocket for a week so I haven't been able to keep up with the weather.

Interesting comment on the "winter". I thought I saw a familiar pattern beginning to set up. Persistence(and location) of that pattern will be the key to the end result.

Yes, the upper low passed us around sunrise. Could be quite an interesting winter across the south.

I was noticing last week as the GFS was showing many lows move across the Gulfcoast in the forecast range. Certainly a great set-up for snow in the deep south. Makes sense in an el nino year.

[attallaman]

Are you saying that the chances of snow are greater this year here in the deep south? How about here along my MS coastline? I can't remember the last significant snowfall event here. When I say significant I'm referring to 2" of snow or more.