Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

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Macrocane
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Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#1 Postby Macrocane » Mon Jul 26, 2010 5:58 pm

I've calculated some statistics about the number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes during La Niña, Neutral and El Niño seasons since 1950.

  • La Niña seasons:11.8/6.8/3.2
  • Neutral seasons:11.7/6.9/2.9
  • El Niño seasons:9.0/4.8/1.9

As you can see there is no big difference between La Niña and Neutral seasons but during El Niño the activity is reduced.

Now the activity depending on the strength of La Niña:
  • Weak La Niña (from -0.5°C to -1.0°C): 11.7/6.2/2.7
  • Moderate La Niña (from -1.0°C to -1.5°C):12.6/7.4/3.4
  • Strong La Niña (>1.5°C):10.8/6.8/3.6

As you can see moderate La Niñas have more tropical storms and more hurricanes than strong or weak La Niñas.

Activity depending on the strength of El Niño:
  • Weak El Niño (from 0.5°C to 1.0°C):11.8/8.0/3.8
  • Moderate El Niño (from 1.0°C to 1.5°C):8.0/4.8/1.0
  • Strong El Niño (from 1.5°C) : 8.0/3.3/1.3

In this case you can see that weak EL Niños are very active and produce more major hurricanes that any other ENSO phase :eek: surprising isn't it?

Now the activity depending on the phase of the AMO and the phase of the ENSO.

Cold AMO (1970-1994):
  • La Niña:10.6/5.3/2.1
  • Neutral:10.4/5.9/1.7
  • El Niño:7.3/3.8/0.9

During the cold phase of the AMO La Niña years have slightly more tropical storms and major hurricanes and El Niño years have much less activity than Neutral and La Niñas.

Warm AMO (1995-2009):
  • La Niña:15.0/8.6/3.6
  • Neutral:17.8/9.8/5.0
  • El Niño:10.8/4.8/2.6


In the warm phase of the AMO Neutral years have had more activity than La Niña years (maybe 2005's fault) and El Niño seasons again have less activity.

I know that this statistics may not be the best way to conclude wich seasons are more active but anyways they are very interesting.
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Re: Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#2 Postby Macrocane » Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:06 pm

By the way this is how I've classified the seasons:

Weak La Niña: 1956, 1962, 1974, 1985, 1995, 2000
Moderate La Niña: 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1998, 2007.
Strong La Niña: 1955, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1999.
Weak El Niño: 1951, 1969, 1976, 1977, 2004.
Moderate El Niño: 1963, 1986, 1994, 2006.
Strong El Niño: 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2009.
Neutral: 1952, 1953, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2008.
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#3 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:11 pm

I wonder Macrocane what did you use to judge what was a strong/moderate/weak event?
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Re: Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#4 Postby Macrocane » Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:25 pm

Oh I forgot about that, I used the info from the pages 24-26 of the CPC ENSO weekly update and I took the highest value (lowest in La Niña episodes) of the overlapping seasons of an event. For example, 2004 was a weak El Niño because its highest value was 0.9 and occured in the ASO period, 1998 was a moderate La Niña because it peaked at -1.4 in the NDJ period.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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#5 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:32 pm

Ah ok, well I wonder whether it'd be possible to just use the JAS and the ASO months as your base, because obviously if a Nina goes strong in November whilst remains moderate for the actual season itself where 95% storms happen then you cannot call it anything other then moderate.

For example 1955 would be a moderate La Nina in that case as would 1999 and probably 1988...
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Re: Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#6 Postby Macrocane » Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:40 pm

You got a good point, I will get new statistics using only the JAS or ASO and maybe I will post them tomorrow.
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#7 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:26 pm

You just simply cannot use data going back to 1950. Any season prior to satellite would be considered suspect at best. How many storms were missed because a poor ship didn't get tangled up with it? Or land was not hit.

Great study, I'm not knocking you for that, but I think the farthest back we can go is maybe 1970ish "accurately"...I tend to go back to 1980 for any studies I'm doing.
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#8 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:32 pm

No reason why we can't at least to back to 1965, we have fairly decent Sat.imagery from that period. Anything further back then that is obviously more prone to having maybe the odd missed system.
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Re: Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#9 Postby Macrocane » Mon Jul 26, 2010 8:18 pm

You are right about pre satellite seasons, that's why the averages of the AMO cycles are more accurate because they were calculated with data since 1970.
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Re: Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#10 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:15 pm

The past El Nino is the strongest since 1997-98.

There is this ENSO dataset that goes back to 1868 from the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

Don't know how good it is.

La Nina
<-20=Extremely Strong
-19.99 to -15=Strong
-14.99 to -10=Moderate
-9.99 to -5=Weak

-4.99 to +4.99=Neutral

El Nino
5 to 9.99=Weak
10 to 14.99=Moderate
15 to 19.99=Strong
>+20=Extremely Strong
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statistics about the ENSO phase and ATL activity

#11 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:18 pm

Hopefully some of our Pro Mets will chime in. Interesting topic.
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