The Summer of The TUTT ?

[TampaFl]

Checking the WV Loop http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html this morning shows three - large UULS. One is located over the Gulf of Mexico, one located off the Florida East Coast, & the third located near Bermuda. It looks like one huge TUTT oriented southwest northeast. If that were to stay in place this summer IMHO any storm heading towards the Gulf or Southeast US would encounter hostile conditions. I do not think I have ever seen a set up like this. And as of this writing there does not appear to be any pattern chagne in the near term.

My question is this - is there any way to determine if this is going to continue the rest of the season & if this pattern were to continue in one form or another what effect would that have on any storms heading for the Gulf or Southeast US. I know that the updated forcastes issued Thursday by NOAA, CSU and the others would seem to indicate that this pattern will not persist and that the Gulf & Southeast US could potentially be at risk later this month into September, October & November.

Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Thanks
Robert

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope the TUTT never moves. I had enough damage and loss of finance for the rest of my life. Climo says it will move and or weaken in time. I think some of the models show future movement. It's all in the timing. Right now a front is approaching N. FL. Keeping Colin away. Hopefully all Hurricanes this year are kept at bay or ocean.

[ColinDelia]

What is the best way to find the TUTT and on which map(s)? Sometimes it is more obvious than others to me. Other times I am not so sure.

[Portastorm]

Here is a nice little primer on what TUTTs are and info for more reading:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html

[Macrocane]

According to this: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/

The TUTTs intensify in July and August and weaken in September and October.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think all of the TUTT activity this year is why some of us ae starting to think
that it may not be an active year at all. There's no guarantee that
the ULLs that are giving storms fits now are going to abate this month or next.
Yes, the water is very very warm, but as we all know, that's only 1 ingredient
necessary for tropical formation. Even MJO may not mean anything if there are ULLs
everywhere....

[HurrMark]

I think if you go back to essentailly any year (except maybe 2005), you will see discussions about how strong the TUTT is and how it is severely reducing tropical cyclone activity. The thing is, the TUTT is a normal feature which is almost always present this time of year in the western Atlantic/Caribbean area. Some years it is stronger than others, but unless a cyclone can get ventilated from it, it never will have any positive impact for a system plowing right through it.

[Stormcenter]

Where was that TUTT when Katrina was around in 2005?

According to this: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/

The TUTTs intensify in July and August and weaken in September and October.

[Stormcenter]

I agree that they are always around during this time of year but not to the extent
we are seeing "so far" in 2010. IMO

I think if you go back to essentailly any year (except maybe 2005), you will see discussions about how strong the TUTT is and how it is severely reducing tropical cyclone activity. The thing is, the TUTT is a normal feature which is almost always present this time of year in the western Atlantic/Caribbean area. Some years it is stronger than others, but unless a cyclone can get ventilated from it, it never will have any positive impact for a system plowing right through it.

[tolakram]

Where was that TUTT when Katrina was around in 2005?

According to this: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/

The TUTTs intensify in July and August and weaken in September and October.

The evolution of Katrina was all about the tutt.

http://www.milli-bar.com/wsoldani/Katrina/Katrina3.htm

[Frank2]

Your topic has good timing - I just noticed the dumbbell effect of the ULL over the GOM and the other between Florida and Colin, and a third ULL north of Colin...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

though the TUTT seems to be weaker today than in previous days/weeks...

[StormClouds63]

I think all of the TUTT activity this year is why some of us ae starting to think
that it may not be an active year at all. There's no guarantee that
the ULLs that are giving storms fits now are going to abate this month or next.
Yes, the water is very very warm, but as we all know, that's only 1 ingredient
necessary for tropical formation. Even MJO may not mean anything if there are ULLs
everywhere....

I got a great chuckle from your post the other day regarding when the "switch will finally be turned on" in the Atlantic Basin. Every day that goes by convinces me these numbers, even the revised numbers, are far too high. So far, most of the Atlantic has been a graveyard full of TUTTs, ULLs, and dry SAL air. Only the central and western Caribbean seems capable of supporting tropical activity. Even the GOM has been filled with ULLs. That wave currently in the western Caribbean might easily develop, but is instead going to run right into Central America. The large complex of showers off the African coast has weakened significantly since last evening. I don't know ... maybe the switch for the 2010 season is stuck in the "off position" and can't be budged. The pattern, if there is any, looks more like 2007. Maybe the upcoming MJO pulse will get things going. Looks like another 7-10 days of waiting to track something other than Colin.

Anyway, your post the other day was a classic and might be entirely plausible.

[cycloneye]

The large complex of showers off the African coast has weakened significantly since last evening.

Is organizing slowly.See 93L thread.

[Ivanhater]

There was talk even in 2005 that it was the season of Upper level low's. I remember one of the NHC discussions referring to the Atlantic being plagued with ULL's. That was 2005....

[KWT]

Yeah its just a nonsense really, sure there has been a strong TUTT but all that means is we get weak systems till maybe 65-70W then things blows up, must I remind people what happened in 2005...

There is a reason why everything formed so far west in a season like 2005...its because actually conditions in the E.Atlantic was pretty poor at time due to higher SAL and a decent TUTT...this was a real big feature in August 2005, hence the 2 week gap in August and a totally sheared out Lee and a struggling Franklin and Irene (till it got further north)

We will have to see, the TUTT IMO will probably reduce the number of majors but the numbers per say probably won't be any different in terms of TS, given you can stil get sheared TS, as Colin and Bonnie proved nicely.

[brunota2003]

Where was that TUTT when Katrina was around in 2005?

According to this: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/

The TUTTs intensify in July and August and weaken in September and October.

Guessing you don't remember TD 10, the remnants of which (after it was torn apart) helped spark Katrina?

[KWT]

The simple truth is ULLs/TUTT are normal, I do think to be fair the TUTT probably has been more stubborn then normal and its placed itself somewhat poorly (it still reminds me alot of where it dumped itself in 2007) but still time for it to shift about.

[BigA]

Relax. The storms will come. Just for perspective, the last three years for which the ENSO value was less than -1.0 during the heart of the season were 1988, 1998, and 1999.

At this point in 1988, the Atlantic had seen 1 tropical storm, no hurricanes.

At this point in 1998, the Atlantic had seen 1 tropical storm, no hurricanes.

At this point in 1999, the Atlantic had seen 1 tropical storm, no hurricanes.

1988 brought Gilbert and Joan. 1998 brought Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch. 1999 brought Bret, Dennis, Floyd, Irene, and Lenny.

Could the TUTT destroy everything this year? Possibly. Is it likely? Given history, probably not.

[AJC3]

I agree that they are always around during this time of year but not to the extent we are seeing "so far" in 2010. IMO

I think if you go back to essentially any year (except maybe 2005), you will see discussions about how strong the TUTT is and how it is severely reducing tropical cyclone activity. The thing is, the TUTT is a normal feature which is almost always present this time of year in the western Atlantic/Caribbean area. Some years it is stronger than others, but unless a cyclone can get ventilated from it, it never will have any positive impact for a system plowing right through it.

I tried pointing this out earlier this summer about the TUTT being a semipermanent feature. What I'm going to try and find, or perhaps make, is a map of average monthly (JUN-OCT) 200MB heights/winds between 10N-30N and 40W-80W, or roughly the mean position of the TUTT, give or take. Much like AEW climatology (strong ones occur more frequently early in the season then people think), there is a lot of misunderstanding about just how strong the TUTT normally is.

Hopefully, more to follow on this later...

[AJC3]

1,000,000 "thank-you"s to a former NWS super-intern I know. (Man, I wish he never left)