Signs of things to come later?

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cycloneye
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Signs of things to come later?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 31, 2003 5:34 pm

There are 2 systems in the atlantic basin now but none will develop because sst's are below 80*F and strong shear and also dry air will not let anything get going.One area is in the western carribean and the other north of the greater antilles.

But the big question is what is instore for the season as these systems are in late january and early febuary out there.

We will know as all the data comes in during the next 3 months what factors will be favorable for an active season and what factors will be unfavorable.

But one thing is for sure one factor that is more and more clear to happen during the season is the ENSO factor and all the data points out neutral to weak la nina but let's wait to be very confident on that. :D
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Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Fri Jan 31, 2003 7:25 pm

I am not an expert by no stretch of the imagination on weather :lol: But it seems to me I can't remember any systems in January, so this may be a sign of a busy tropical season. If there is a record of this please inform me and also give me your view :wink:
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jan 31, 2003 8:29 pm

I am not an expert by no stretch of the imagination on weather But it seems to me I can't remember any systems in January, so this may be a sign of a busy tropical season. If there is a record of this please inform me and also give me your view


First of all, the other system is extratropical. So the only disturbance that had some potential was the Caribbean low. Is the low a sign of things to come? Well thats hard to say. Usually, when storms develop early int he season, overall activity is usually below normal HOWEVER, that usually occurs during EL NINO years. 2003 will not be an El Nino years. Btw, storms have formed in January before.
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Rainband

#4 Postby Rainband » Fri Jan 31, 2003 8:35 pm

Thanks for the information :wink: BTW if you have a link to tropical systems that have formed out of season post it Thanks again 8)
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Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 01, 2003 1:32 am

If its a weather related link I have it...don't be afraid to ask :wink: ROFL. I used to have an offseason page at TWW but the site is basically shutdown at the moment.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/offseason.htm
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Derek Ortt

Not necessarily

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Feb 01, 2003 3:24 pm

Early activity often has a negative coorelation with the upcoming season. Both 1982 and 1986 (while el nino years), both had a lot of early activity, while there was little overall activity.

Early development does not in any way translate to an active season
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Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 01, 2003 4:34 pm

This low may also be a sign of lower sea level pressure anomalies for the year. If this is true, another positive enhancing factor for the season. But no it does not promise the season will be active.
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Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Sun Feb 02, 2003 5:24 pm

Thanks Supercane:) :wink:
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