Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

[HURAKAN]

I think it's time to create another thread to explore the possible formation of yet another storm in the NW Caribbean

CMC



GFS



NGP

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING LARGE CLUSTERS
OF INTENSE CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 21N84W LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE
LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD MOVE N ALONG THE
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH TUE NIGHT AND WED CROSSING W
CUBA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD PAST BAHAMAS IT WILL TRAIL
A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WILL SET UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND LOW OR LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH
THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE PATTERN REPEATING. ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING...POSITION...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE LOWS IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...WINDS AND SEAS AND CONVECTION ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.


Link - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[HURAKAN]

GFDL

[ColinDelia]

12z GFS text output (Note it starts at 84 hours)

TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 084, 179N, 828W, 25, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 090, 181N, 821W, 31, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 096, 187N, 818W, 28, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 102, 191N, 815W, 31, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 108, 198N, 813W, 33, 1000, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 114, 202N, 820W, 35, 998, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0073, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 120, 208N, 821W, 41, 997, XX, 34, NEQ, 0068, 0091, 0093, 0060, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 126, 212N, 821W, 39, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0070, 0073, 0075, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 132, 221N, 822W, 37, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0014, 0062, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 138, 228N, 828W, 43, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0088, 0053, 0091, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 144, 231N, 828W, 43, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0106, 0081, 0067, 0118, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 150, 238N, 822W, 54, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0055, 0000, 0000, 0121, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 156, 240N, 822W, 57, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0327, 0000, 0000, 0236, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 162, 242N, 823W, 52, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0098, 0069, 0060, 0250, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 168, 249N, 822W, 51, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0333, 0082, 0000, 0213, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 174, 254N, 827W, 55, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0329, 0099, 0078, 0200, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 180, 254N, 830W, 51, 997, XX, 34, NEQ, 0347, 0067, 0071, 0245, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[fci]

From NWS Miami's 4:06 PM discussion:
There is an extreme degree of uncertainty for the far extended
forecast...during the upcoming weekend and beyond. The latest 12z run
of the GFS shows a tropical cyclone developing in the northwest Caribbean
Friday...moving northward into The Straits/far southeast Gulf sun-early next
week. This solution would not be good. However...the European model (ecmwf) shows
a stronger middle/upper level trough over the eastern sea
board...keeping the more pronounced troughing and weaker lows
forming well to our southeast through next week with the area
mostly dry - two completely different scenarios. Impossible to
determine which one leans more towards reality so have made no
changes to the extended forecast.

The confusion from future models continues beyond 96L

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 120 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

144 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

168 hours, Hangs around the Keys but a little weaker.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[artist]

I just wish there were some type of certainty somewhere. If its gonna happen, then bring it on! lol If not then just disappear. This is such a crazy setup. And obviously perplexing even to the best as to what is really gonna happen.

[Ladylight]

This is a week of possibilities and uncertainties and that makes me veeeery nervous. Thus one looks like a gom storm if it happens though, right?

[dwsqos2]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs.

[otowntiger]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs.

Yeah, where's all the storms that were supposed to be developing out this area?

[ConvergenceZone]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs.

Yeah, where's all the storms that were supposed to be developing out this area?

Yep, it looks like it was a fluke afterall, TD 16 seems to be the only one.....I had a feeling
this would happen. Tropics may go quiet after TD 16.

[SoupBone]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs.

Yeah, where's all the storms that were supposed to be developing out this area?

Yep, it looks like it was a fluke afterall, TD 16 seems to be the only one.....I had a feeling
this would happen. Tropics may go quiet after TD 16.

I'm not quite ready to call in bones yet, but it's starting to feel a bit better after each day goes by without anything significant. What are the models showing as far as troughs? Does it have them dipping down regularly?

[caneseddy]

Actually the 06Z GFS shows a low forming in 86 hours (Saturday) and eventually making its way to Florida as a hurricane on a Charley TRACK

Here is the loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Regardles the models seemed to have backed off of the "storm after storm after storm".

[caneseddy]

edit

[caneseddy]

The GFS still has another hurricane coming towards Florida by next weekend from the western Caribbean, so by no means has the GFS had a fluke run; the 00Z run was the only recent run by the GFS that did not depict a second low

Let's see what further runs have to say before we send the all clear

Even the pro mets here have stated that this is just the beginning of the NW Caribbean season

edit: 12z GFS run also has the second storm starting to develop on Saturday as well; full run has not been completed so cannot post the complete loop but here is what it has so far

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Actually the 06Z GFS shows a low forming in 86 hours (Saturday) and eventually making its way to Florida as a hurricane on a Charley TRACK

Here is the loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

I doubt this will come to pass, as Saturday is only a few days away and we don't even have an area for this we are
even tracking. The GFS seems infamous for pulling this type of stuff...

edit: if you mean NEXT Saturday, then I understand, I thought you meant THIS Saturday.

[caneseddy]

Actually the 06Z GFS shows a low forming in 86 hours (Saturday) and eventually making its way to Florida as a hurricane on a Charley TRACK

Here is the loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

I doubt this will come to pass, as Saturday is only a few days away and we don't even have an area for this we are
even tracking. The GFS seems infamous for pulling this type of stuff...

edit: if you mean NEXT Saturday, then I understand, I thought you meant THIS Saturday.

My mistake; I meant to say that the GFS has the low forming this weekend, meandering around the Caribbean and impacting Florida next weekend as a hurricane (9-10 October), which is what the GFS has been depicting over the past few runs

Sorry for the confusion

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

12Z GFS - broad monsoonal low forms again in NW caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_s_loop.shtml