How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

[cycloneye]

This poll runs until Sunday at the time this thread is made (5:13 PM EDT) The question is a simple one, how many more systems will form on October,November and maybe a December renegade?

I voted four.

[northjaxpro]

I also voted four more storms as well. I think we will see three cyclones to develop in October and one in November to close out the season.

[JtSmarts]

5 More giving us a total of 19

[brunota2003]

I went with 6.

[Hurricanehink]

I voted six. I don't think the season is about to collapse. In the past 15 years, we've seen several seasons with multiple October and November storms. Excluding 2009, 2006, 2002, and 1997 (which were El Nino years), the average number of storms from this point to the end of the season is 4.6. When removing 2005, the average is 4. That being said, I don't think the season is going to have an average finish. The waters in the Caribbean are still very warm, and if the models are correct, we should see another storm or two there in the very short term. I also remember reading a post that mentioned Joe Bastardi's belief that the season could last until December.

I believe there is a shot at reaching the Greek letters (which would be 8 more), particularly if they are short-lived like Nicole. Notably, the season hasn't had any subtropical development, despite the remnants of Julia and Lisa showing that the subtropics were reasonably favorable. I believe it is only time before some storms start developing north of 25N; there hasn't been a season since 1961 in which every named storm developed below 25N, and I don't think this season will be the exception.

In short, I don't expect the season to stop, given how favorable the conditions have been for the past month.

[HURAKAN]

4

[dmbthestone]

I voted 3. Staying on the conservative side lol.

[ConvergenceZone]

2 to 3 probably...

[Jinkers]

I'm being conservative, I went with 2.

[Florida1118]

5, going into late Nov.

[psyclone]

i'm down for 4. western carib will continue to deliver imo and i do think we get one storm in november with the other 3 in october.

[Weatherfreak000]

19/9/7 are my prediction numbers. I'd say at this stage of the season I stand to maybe nail that...

[Andrew92]

I voted 4, but I would not at all be shocked to see 5.

-Andrew92

[gilbert88]

I went with 5, which might be a teensy bit conservative considering the activity we saw in September.

And we might have Hurricane Thomas churning out in the open Atlantic in early December.

[Ladylight]

I have no real clue like the pros and amateurs here, but my hunch says a minimum of three more. So I voted three but won't be surprised if that's low.

[dwsqos2]

3/1/0

I still am not optimistic about the October to November period. I think that it will not live up to standard Nina expectations (i.e. a major hurricane somewhere in the basin).

[FireRat]

4, could be 5 with a Thanksgiving Tomas.

[arkestra]

I voted 3 named storms and probably 1 or 2 depressions. I believe 2010 is a CV season, which brought us the above average named storms, and time for CV storms is almost over. The remaining would be what we get during a normal season.

[Cookie]

5

[abajan]

Four more to make a total of eighteen — just like the Klotzbach/Gray team predicted on June 2nd. And with La Niña as strong as it is, I’m still expecting at least one of the four to occur in December. (Oops, my math got screwed up and I mistakenly voted five in error.)