Possible GOM low this week?

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Stormcenter
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Possible GOM low this week?

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:46 am

This is an excerpt from the NWS discussion out of New Orleans this morning.


A WEAK SFC LOW WILL FORM BY WED NIGHT AND DRIFT WEST
FOR SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUING OUR SH/TS POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...HOPEFULLY. THE NAM HAS DIFFERENT PLANS AND
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOMETHING ON THE WESTERN MOST END OF THE
BOUNDARY. EVENTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
NORTH OF THE FLA PANHANDLE BY WED NIGHT...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO
RHYME OR REASON TO WHY THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP SOMETHING IN THE
GULF BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
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dwsqos2

Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#2 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:58 am

I think the key acronym in that AFD is "NAM." Really, it's a dreadful model and prone to so many false alarms in the tropics it isn't even funny.
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#3 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:08 am

They are looking at the NAM for tropical development? You have to be kidding me. Is not even worth mentioning.

Even if surface trough tries to spin something it looks to be too close to the coast to do much.
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#4 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:12 am

Hey don't shoot the messenger just putting it out there because they (NWS) did. :D
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#5 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:16 am

Well considering how slow things are the GOM might be the only
place to keep an eye on this week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#6 Postby waveaxis » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:18 am

dwsqos2 wrote:I think the key acronym in that AFD is "NAM." Really, it's a dreadful model and prone to so many false alarms in the tropics it isn't even funny.


NAM is whatever model the NCEP runs over the North America domain. Until 2006, that model was ETA, now they use WRF-NMM.
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#7 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:24 am

I know what the NAM is; I was trying to be modestly sarcastic.

And, really why would the Gulf of Mexico be the only thing to keep an eye on? Out of all portions of the basin I would say that while I don't think a TC is likely over the next week, the Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, even off the coast of North Carolina would be relevant areas to watch for TC formation over next week. I would put the far eastern Atlantic ahead of the Gulf even.
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#8 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:43 am

Well even though it's the NAM it's still the "ONLY" model that is predicting any possible
development anywhere in the areas that you mentioned this week....that's why.

dwsqos2 wrote:I know what the NAM is; I was trying to be modestly sarcastic.

And, really why would the Gulf of Mexico be the only thing to keep an eye on? Out of all portions of the basin I would say that while I don't think a TC is likely over the next week, the Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, even off the coast of North Carolina would be relevant areas to watch for TC formation over next week. I would put the far eastern Atlantic ahead of the Gulf even.
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#9 Postby thetruesms » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:02 am

dwsqos2 wrote:I know what the NAM is; I was trying to be modestly sarcastic.

And, really why would the Gulf of Mexico be the only thing to keep an eye on? Out of all portions of the basin I would say that while I don't think a TC is likely over the next week, the Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, even off the coast of North Carolina would be relevant areas to watch for TC formation over next week. I would put the far eastern Atlantic ahead of the Gulf even.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say it just might be because the New Orleans WFO doesn't have any forecast responsibilities for the Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, or even off the coast of North Carolina :wink:
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#10 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:06 am

My post was more in response to Stormcenter's statement that due to how slow things are, the GOM is the only real area to watch. I guess I should have quoted a post, but his post was only a few above mine.
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#11 Postby thetruesms » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:19 am

whoops, I see that now :oops:
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#12 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:37 am

But it is the only area (GOM) that has model (NAM) support this week anywhere
in tropics. Oh well we shall see.


dwsqos2 wrote:My post was more in response to Stormcenter's statement that due to how slow things are, the GOM is the only real area to watch. I guess I should have quoted a post, but his post was only a few above mine.
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#13 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:20 pm

The story continues.....excerpt from this afternoon's NWS discussion out
of the N.O., LA.

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME KIND OF WEAK HYBRID SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP
ON THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OR SOUTHEAST CONUS BY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...A COUPLE OF THE MODELS DRIFT THIS LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.
THE LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WOULD DEPEND GREATLY ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE LOW. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST AND THE EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WILL LIMIT THE POP FORECAST AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT FOR THE TIME BEING BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THESE POPS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER DEPENDING
ON HOW THE SITUATION PANS OUT.
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#14 Postby lonelymike » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:05 pm

I doubt anybody along the Gulf would complain about a low that brings Rain. :sun:
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GO SEMINOLES

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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#15 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:18 pm

Currently looking at radar and surfarce winds, it appears a surface low is trying to form over the Bay, Washington and Gulf county area.

Image

Image

The lowest pressure I have found so far is 29.88.

Tropicwatch
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#16 Postby MGC » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:40 pm

Another 2002 Bertha?......MGC
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#17 Postby djmikey » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Question...Why have'nt we seen the early spring up storms like the previous years? I live here in SETX and I remember the past few years in June and July we had some disturbances and a few tropical storms and even a hurricane. I hear that this year is supposed to compare to 2008 (Ike year) but it sure has been quiet. Can we still expect a busy time for the gulf and Carribean? Just wondering what is different this year than the previous years? Mexico seems to be the target all the time...Just curious...lol..Thanks
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Re:

#18 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:33 pm

djmikey wrote:Question...Why have'nt we seen the early spring up storms like the previous years? I live here in SETX and I remember the past few years in June and July we had some disturbances and a few tropical storms and even a hurricane. I hear that this year is supposed to compare to 2008 (Ike year) but it sure has been quiet. Can we still expect a busy time for the gulf and Carribean? Just wondering what is different this year than the previous years? Mexico seems to be the target all the time...Just curious...lol..Thanks



It's early....the first thing you learn here is paitence..
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#19 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Jul 13, 2011 12:02 am

Saw this feature mentioned by FWD as well:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
UPDATED 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
wrote:
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH. NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE
...
BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION.
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Re: Possible GOM low this week?

#20 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 8:15 am

KMOB's morning AFD refers to an inverted trough in the northern Gulf heading into the weekend/early next week, but apparently they aren't overly bothered about it. :lol:
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