Pouch P14L- Off Africa coast (Is invest 92L)

[Ivanhater]

This one is the system with model support




SYNOPSIS 2011080500

P14L
10N, 8W
700 hPa

Convective burst just ending at 00Z.

ECMWF: Like the other models, ECMWF depicts a relatively strong pouch coming off of Africa. However, unlike all the other models, ECMWF is weak at the beginning and end of the period. The analysis depicts a monsoon trof with several small OW maxima, of which, the one that becomes P14L is not the most intense. After a few days, the eventually strong pouch stops its westward motion (interaction with the next wave to the east?), and begins to weaken, to the point of dissipation after 108 hours.

GFS: The first strong pouch to come off of Africa in a long time (first of the season?). Intensifies and maintains an easily-tracked pouch for all five days, although the OW values indicate some weakening after Day 3.

UKMET: Similar to GFS.

NOGAPS: Jumps "off of Africa" between 12 and 24 hours, then becomes almost stationary as an ITCZ eddy. Eventually, it moves slowly to the west.

HWRF-GEN: Fastest phase speed. Except for the common, small-scale, double CL-trof intersections within the large circulation while over Africa near the beginning of the forecast, P14L is a large pouch with a distinct center position.

ECMWF -4.4 v700 108h
GFS -5.9 v700 120h
UKMET -5.4 v700 120h
NOGAPS -3.9 v700 120h
HWGEN -7.1 v700 120h

[cycloneye]

Interesting the barbs around 10N.



Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[Gustywind]

that's pretty informative Cycloneye. Let's wait and see what could be in store with this Pouch P14L.

[cycloneye]

Michael, the predict team made another synopsis of Pouch P14L this morning,but with no ECMWF data.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P14L.html

SYNOPSIS 2011080600

P14L
11N, 15W
700 hPa


ECMWF (No data)

GFS: Large, distinct pouch the entire five days. Slow at first, then accelerates, but also slowly weakens after Day 2.

UKMET: Similar to GFS.

NOGAPS: Has a distinct pouch, but it starts farther east than GFS & UKMET and then loiters near the African coast, even moving eastward at one point. Finally moves westward.

HWRF-GEN (No data).

ECMWF ---- ---- ---h
GFS -4.8 v700 120h
UKMET -6.2 v700 120h
NOGAPS -6.2 v700 120h
HWGEN ---- ---- ---h

[Kohlecane]

hopefully will become exciting, i have faith

[cycloneye]

From San Juan NWS discussion this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...NOTHING TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST WHICH
LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT CAPTURED
NICELY SHOWING A CLOSED TIGHT SFC CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS LIKE THIS WAVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WAVE LIKELY TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FROM SAL TO THE NORTH SO
ANTICIPATING THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ONCE IT CROSSES 50W
WHERE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AND AWAY FROM ANY SAL
INFLUENCES. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING ON A TC TRACKING ACROSS THE
TROP ATLC. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
ANY STORM WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the best floater of it..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

still a long way to go ....

[MississippiWx]

Navy has 92L on the site.

[MississippiWx]

Here's the link...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

[cycloneye]

So far ATCF doesn't have 92L updated as it has what was 92L of May.

05/24/2011 06:08p.m. 1,117 invest_al922011.invest

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Nikki]

When I click on 92L on the navy site, it takes me to the same area Emily is in, could it be a mistake? Or am I looking in the wrong area? I am VERY, VERY, NOVICE when it comes to this stuff...

[cycloneye]

When I click on 92L on the navy site, it takes me to the same area Emily is in, could it be a mistake? Or am I looking in the wrong area? I am VERY, VERY, NOVICE when it comes to this stuff...

It should be a glitch as 92L has not been activated as I posted at above post.

[Nikki]

Thank you cycloneeye!

[cycloneye]

Really,it should be invest by Sunday,if it keeps like this.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zECMWF has a nice distinct 850mb vorticity on that wave but then looses it by 108hrs right around 35W.

[KWT]

Rotation is a little hard to ignore, probably will be an invest soon if that keeps up for any length of time.

Still at that far east anything that tries to get going is heading into the open waters of the Atlantic...even in a normal non-troughy season!

[Cyclone1]

It looks fantastic for being so close to the coast.

[HurricaneWarning92]

very impressive.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles suggest low pressure will dominate the MDR in the days ahead. That guidance also suggests strong ridging from the Azores into the Western Atlantic. My hunch is this will be a long track slow developing disturbance that could see a better opportunity, organization wise, as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. We will see.

[cycloneye]

Fresh loop.