Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Ivanhater]

The GFS has been advertising a system developing in the BOC and the 00z Euro jumps on board sending the system into the North central Gulf coast

00z GFS



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00z Euro



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FIMY model

[Rgv20]

Looks like the GOM is going to get interesting as we head until Labor Day. 0zECMWF operational has a TC in ten day moving until Mobile and the 0zECMWF Ensembles show a lot of possibilities with regards to track of this potential TC.

This is the 0zECMWF Ensemble Forecast Map for 10 days. The dark shading shows that some of the ensembles favor a Western Gulf Threat.

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the GOM is going to get interesting as we head until Labor Day. 0zECMWF operational has a TC in ten day moving until Mobile and the 0zECMWF Ensembles show a lot of possibilities with regards to track of this potential TC.

This is the 0zECMWF Ensemble Forecast Map for 10 days. The dark shading shows that some of the ensembles favor a Western Gulf Threat.

Western GOM (TX and LA) need the rainfall desperately. Something to cool down those temps. also.

[KatDaddy]

New Orleans and Corpus Christi AFDs mentioned potential lowering of pressures in the GOM.

New Orleans AFD:

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MDLS ARE STRUGGLING IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE AND A POSSIBLE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TX/WRN GULF. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE RIDGE AND
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN PUSH IT EAST INTO THE GULF.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND COULD
BARE WATCHING. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND THEN RETROGRADES THE MID LVL RIDGE FASTER AND THUS NOT
LEADING TO ANY SFC LOW. LUCKILY THIS IS AT THE BACK END OF THE FCST
SO WE HAVE TIME TO WATCH AND IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE
NEXT WEEKEND.

Corpus Christi AFD:

AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS HAVE IN STORE
FOR SOUTH TEXAS IN THE EXTENDED. ALSO...THESE TWO MODELS TRY TO
DEVELOP SOMETHING TROPICAL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND DAY 7 (BOTH
DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION).

[LaBreeze]

New Orleans and Corpus Christi AFDs mentioned potential lowering of pressures in the GOM.

New Orleans AFD:

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MDLS ARE STRUGGLING IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE AND A POSSIBLE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TX/WRN GULF. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE RIDGE AND
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN PUSH IT EAST INTO THE GULF.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND COULD
BARE WATCHING. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND THEN RETROGRADES THE MID LVL RIDGE FASTER AND THUS NOT
LEADING TO ANY SFC LOW. LUCKILY THIS IS AT THE BACK END OF THE FCST
SO WE HAVE TIME TO WATCH AND IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE
NEXT WEEKEND.

Corpus Christi AFD:

AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS HAVE IN STORE
FOR SOUTH TEXAS IN THE EXTENDED. ALSO...THESE TWO MODELS TRY TO
DEVELOP SOMETHING TROPICAL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND DAY 7 (BOTH
DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION).

KatDaddy, do you think we may get some rainfall or some sort of action next weekend here along the NW and W GOM?

[ROCK]

looks fairly weak and broad...track up into the N-E GOM so far from guidance....thought the CMC developes this late and sends it into STex.....might squeeze out some rain for us....

[wxman57]

Euro backing off now - more like the GFS. Significant pattern change that COULD bring some decent rain to Texas Labor Day weekend and beyond.

[Tireman4]

Euro backing off now - more like the GFS. Significant pattern change that COULD bring some decent rain to Texas Labor Day weekend and beyond.

Define decent young sir. More than an inch?

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro backing off now - more like the GFS. Significant pattern change that COULD bring some decent rain to Texas Labor Day weekend and beyond.

When you say pattern change, do you mean more cold fronts digging down? If so, could they also make their way toward the east coast?

[underthwx]

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER TEXAS
AND THE SW UNITED STATES WILL MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST US BY WED. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ONSHORE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADD SOME LIFT
AND INSTABILITY. FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL
ADVECT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AN
INCREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDINESS...AND TEMPS MODERATING TO MORE
SEASONAL NORMS. UNTIL THEN...VERY WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS PERSIST. SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO TRANSEND
TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL WARM AND COOL MORE
EFFICIENTLY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 70S BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DEEP LEVELS OF DRY
AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO UNTIL WED.


Brownsville AFD..........I first noticed on Wed. in the Houston Forecast Discussion mention of something in the west Gulf region....can any Mets offer any details?





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[Turtle]

How's the ridge (or high?) over Texas? Is it moving away from us in time for September?

[Portastorm]

How's the ridge (or high?) over Texas? Is it moving away from us in time for September?

The ridge is large and in charge ... today and for the next few ... but it is progged by both the GFS and Euro to break down and the center to move to the west/northwest, opening up Texas for some "possibilities."

[Ivanhater]

Well 18z gfs is interesting...merges the boc system with a system coming from the Caribbean..makes a strong hurricane in the Gulf...I sense some gulf trouble soon

[caneman]

Image isn't coming up Ivan. Do you have a link? Thanks

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS long-range, 372 hours:

[Ivanhater]

BOC system hits New Orleans



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[Stormcenter]

Well of course it hits New Orleans. Don't they all when it's a week away or more? I believe what eventually became Irene was suppose to be a New Orleans hit to begin with.

BOC system hits New Orleans

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[perk]

Stormcenter the GFS also had a direct hit on Houston. I'm just excited that there's talk about the Texas death ridge demise.

[Ivanhater]

True Stormcenter. However, this system originates in the Gulf so it has to hit somewhere if it develops. With the troughs the GFS keeps swinging by and the Texas ridge gone, a NE motions looks good. Just speculation at this point.

[Nikki]

Stormcenter the GFS also had a direct hit on Houston. I'm just excited that there's talk about the Texas death ridge demise.

As much as I would NEVER WISH~CAST a storm on anyone, I can't help but be excited at the thought of the Texas Death Ridge going away either!!