Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

[HurricaneRyan]

If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.

If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list

Don't worry, I would bet pretty confidently that there will be at least two more named storms this calendar year regardless, and maybe 50/50 odds we'll see Adria and get to use the supplemental list for the first time as well

Just for everything to struggle in the month since Tammy...oof

[DioBrando]

We've already had 19 storms (okay, 20), which, although I suspected this year would be on the active side for a Nino, thought predictions of 19 storms were rather excessive. Um, anyway.

I just hope next time something goes unnamed, it's at the end of the year rather than at the beginning.

Here are some things I'm basing my predictions on:

- El Niño is over, so we're gonna see more storms in 2024 and 2025.
- Names that start with D to M are more likely to get retired, cuz they're in the middle of the season when stuff gets real.
- We might lose 2-4 names per list, depending on how bad the storms are.

So here's what I think will happen from 2024 to 2040:

List 4 (2024): This one's gonna be crazy, man. I'm guessing 3-5 names will be gone. Of originals, watch out for Debby, Ernesto, and Isaac. They sound like trouble.

List 5 (2025): This one's also gonna be wild. Another 3-5 names will bite the dust. Of originals, Erin, Gabrielle, and Jerry are the ones to look out for.

List 6 (2026): This one might be a bit calmer, but still not chill. Maybe 2-3 names will get retired. Edouard, Josephine, and Marco are the ones I'm worried about.

The rest of the lists (2027-2040):

I'm thinking 2-4 names will get retired in the busy years, and 0-2 in the slow years. It also depends on whether we have El Niño or La Niña, which affect the storm activity.

Which list will run out of names first?

List 3 (1981): This one has the least names left, but it also depends on how bad the storms are. If they're not too bad, it might not be the first to run out of names, because we just left the cycle and I don't think Idalia would be retired anyway (Franklin, Idalia and Lee are not original names).
List 5 (1983): This one has a good chance of being the first to run out of names, cuz it has 11 names left and it's facing a super active 2025 season.
List 4 (1982): This one has the most names left, but it could also lose a lot of them in the crazy 2024 season.

So what's the bottom line?

List 5 (1983) is probably gonna be the first to run out of its original names, cuz it's gonna get hit hard in 2025.
List 3 (1981) might be next, depending on how the storms are in 2029 and beyond.
List 4 (1982) might last longer, but it could also lose a lot of names in 2024.


So here's how they rank, from most likely to least likely:

1) List 5 (1983) - Remaining Original Names: 11

This one has the best chance of being the first to run out of names, cuz it has fewer names left and it's facing a likely crazy season (2025).

2) List 3 (1981) - Remaining Original Names: 10

This one has the second-best chance, but no retirements are expected for 2023. This list has a relatively low number of original names remaining, but it's just finished this current cycle, which makes it the next likely candidate as List 5 has yet to be used this cycle.

3) List 6 (1984) - Remaining Original Names: 12

This one is in the middle, with a decent number of names left, but it could also lose some in future seasons.

4) List 4 (1982) - Remaining Original Names: 15

This one has the most names left, but it could also lose a lot of them in the crazy 2024 season.

5) List 2 (1980) - Remaining Original Names: 12

This one also has a decent number of names, but its position in the cycle might make it less likely than List 6.

6) List 1 (1979) - Remaining Original Names: 14

This one has the most names left, making it the least likely to run out of names first.


That's it for now, guys. Let me know what you think. Peace out. ✌️

[DioBrando]

Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

Bumping this, as people are already talking about big ones for 2023 in the other thread.

Original names on List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince.
A lot of them are early letters, as List 3 has done a good job with retiring names deep into the alphabet (mostly due to 2005 and 2017).

Given that transition to at least neutral ENSO is likely, I wonder if this may be the year where A/B/C/E may finally be retired?

See above, I don't believe it's list 3 this time.

[DioBrando]

Does anyone want to do a poll for this

[wwizard]

Does anyone want to do a poll for this

List 3 has the fewest original names left (10) and that list has been around for 43 years. We'll probably all be dead by the time one list uses up all their original names.

[DioBrando]

Does anyone want to do a poll for this

List 3 has the fewest original names left (10) and that list has been around for 43 years. We'll probably all be dead by the time one list uses up all their original names.

Or maybe not due to global warming, you never know

[Teban54]

A bit unrelated to this thread, but I want to move this timeline of naming conventions here in order to archive it in a more permanent thread:

For those who want to dig down the rabbit hole, here's a timeline of naming conventions in the Atlantic and EPAC in history.

Atlantic:

• 1947: Phonetic alphabet started being used to name storms internally by Air Weather Service, but not to the public.
• 1950: Phonetic alphabet was used in public. This was the first year in which Atlantic storms were given names.
• 1953-54: The first naming list was created. At the time, the same naming list was to be used every year, and thus the same names were used in both years. 1953 was the first year in which Atlantic storms were given human names.
• 1954: Three names were retired for the first time. At the time, they were to be retired for 10 years, after which they may be used again.
• 1955-59: A new naming list was created at the start of each year. (Except Alice in 1955, which formed in December 1954 but was named in January 1955. This happened after the decision to use distinct naming lists per year was made, but before the 1955 list was created.)
• 1960-70: 4 rotating naming lists were created and used.
• 1969: Retirement of names became permanent, as opposed to for 10 years.
• 1971-78: 10 rotating naming lists were created by NOAA, and were to be used for 1971-80 as the first rotation. However, only the first 8 were used.
• 1972: Subtropical storms began to be officially recognized and started receiving names from the phonetic alphabet. Subtropical storms that later transition into fully tropical storms would receive a new name from the standard naming list upon transition.
• 1979: The 6 modern naming lists were created by WMO and started this year, with both male and female names. (All earlier naming lists only included female names.) If the naming list was to be exhausted, Greek alphabet would be used (which happened in 2005 and 2020).
• 2000: Storms that cross between Atlantic and East Pacific basins will now retain their name. Prior to this season, they would change to a new name from the second basin upon entering it, provided the intensity was at TS or higher. The last crossover storm to receive two names was Cesar-Douglas 1996; the first crossover storm to retain a single name was Otto 2016.
• 2002: Subtropical storms now receive names from the standard naming list.
• 2021: The use of the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a new auxiliary list is created. Names will be pulled from the auxiliary list after the main list is exhausted.

Eastern Pacific:

• 1960-1965: 4 naming lists with only female names were created. At that time, they were used in a "wraparound" fashion, where each year picked up from where the previous year left off, and a subsequent list would be used following the W storm in the previous list. 1960 was the first year in which EPAC storms were given names.
• 1965: Despite finishing List 2 with Wallie during the season, subsequent storms returned to the start of List 2 with Ava.
• 1966-1977: The 4 naming lists were now used in yearly rotations, starting with the A storm of a new list each year. Otherwise, the same 4 naming lists from 1960-65 were used: 1966 started with List 3 (following 1965's List 2).
• 1978-1982: 4 of the 6 modern naming lists were created by WMO and rotated during these 5 years, with both male and female names. Initially, they were to be the only 4 naming lists in EPAC. They are today's List 4 (Aletta), List 1 (Andres), List 2 (Agatha) and List 3 (Adrian), in order from 1978 to 1981. If the naming list was to be exhausted, Greek alphabet would be used (which never happened in EPAC).
• 1982: As the rotation cycled back to List 4, two more naming lists were added, presumably to line up with the Atlantic's rotations. List 5 (Adolph, later replaced with Alvin) was first used in 1983, and List 6 (Alma, later replaced with Amanda) in 1984.
• 1985: X, Y and Z names were added to EPAC naming lists in October, due to the exceptionally active season causing fear of exhausting the naming list. These names rotate once every 2 years, unlike A-W names that rotate once every 6 years. The 1985 season only reached X; the 1992 season reached Z, while being the second and most recent time that the X name was used.
• 2000: Storms that cross between Atlantic and East Pacific basins will now retain their name. Prior to this season, they would change to a new name from the second basin upon entering it, provided the intensity was at TS or higher. The last crossover storm to receive two names was Cesar-Douglas 1996; the first crossover storm to retain a single name was Otto 2016.
• 2021: The use of the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a new auxiliary list is created. Names will be pulled from the auxiliary list after the main list is exhausted. Note that EPAC's auxiliary list also contained X, Y and Z names, which are distinct from the two sets of X-Z names on the normal lists.

[DioBrando]

A bit unrelated to this thread, but I want to move this timeline of naming conventions here in order to archive it in a more permanent thread:

For those who want to dig down the rabbit hole, here's a timeline of naming conventions in the Atlantic and EPAC in history.

Atlantic:

• 1947: Phonetic alphabet started being used to name storms internally by Air Weather Service, but not to the public.
• 1950: Phonetic alphabet was used in public. This was the first year in which Atlantic storms were given names.
• 1953-54: The first naming list was created. At the time, the same naming list was to be used every year, and thus the same names were used in both years. 1953 was the first year in which Atlantic storms were given human names.
• 1954: Three names were retired for the first time. At the time, they were to be retired for 10 years, after which they may be used again.
• 1955-59: A new naming list was created at the start of each year. (Except Alice in 1955, which formed in December 1954 but was named in January 1955. This happened after the decision to use distinct naming lists per year was made, but before the 1955 list was created.)
• 1960-70: 4 rotating naming lists were created and used.
• 1969: Retirement of names became permanent, as opposed to for 10 years.
• 1971-78: 10 rotating naming lists were created by NOAA, and were to be used for 1971-80 as the first rotation. However, only the first 8 were used.
• 1972: Subtropical storms began to be officially recognized and started receiving names from the phonetic alphabet. Subtropical storms that later transition into fully tropical storms would receive a new name from the standard naming list upon transition.
• 1979: The 6 modern naming lists were created by WMO and started this year, with both male and female names. (All earlier naming lists only included female names.) If the naming list was to be exhausted, Greek alphabet would be used (which happened in 2005 and 2020).
• 2000: Storms that cross between Atlantic and East Pacific basins will now retain their name. Prior to this season, they would change to a new name from the second basin upon entering it, provided the intensity was at TS or higher. The last crossover storm to receive two names was Cesar-Douglas 1996; the first crossover storm to retain a single name was Otto 2016.
• 2002: Subtropical storms now receive names from the standard naming list.
• 2021: The use of the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a new auxiliary list is created. Names will be pulled from the auxiliary list after the main list is exhausted.

Eastern Pacific:

• 1960-1965: 4 naming lists with only female names were created. At that time, they were used in a "wraparound" fashion, where each year picked up from where the previous year left off, and a subsequent list would be used following the W storm in the previous list. 1960 was the first year in which EPAC storms were given names.
• 1965: Despite finishing List 2 with Wallie during the season, subsequent storms returned to the start of List 2 with Ava.
• 1966-1977: The 4 naming lists were now used in yearly rotations, starting with the A storm of a new list each year. Otherwise, the same 4 naming lists from 1960-65 were used: 1966 started with List 3 (following 1965's List 2).
• 1978-1982: 4 of the 6 modern naming lists were created by WMO and rotated during these 5 years, with both male and female names. Initially, they were to be the only 4 naming lists in EPAC. They are today's List 4 (Aletta), List 1 (Andres), List 2 (Agatha) and List 3 (Adrian), in order from 1978 to 1981. If the naming list was to be exhausted, Greek alphabet would be used (which never happened in EPAC).
• 1982: As the rotation cycled back to List 4, two more naming lists were added, presumably to line up with the Atlantic's rotations. List 5 (Adolph, later replaced with Alvin) was first used in 1983, and List 6 (Alma, later replaced with Amanda) in 1984.
• 1985: X, Y and Z names were added to EPAC naming lists in October, due to the exceptionally active season causing fear of exhausting the naming list. These names rotate once every 2 years, unlike A-W names that rotate once every 6 years. The 1985 season only reached X; the 1992 season reached Z, while being the second and most recent time that the X name was used.
• 2000: Storms that cross between Atlantic and East Pacific basins will now retain their name. Prior to this season, they would change to a new name from the second basin upon entering it, provided the intensity was at TS or higher. The last crossover storm to receive two names was Cesar-Douglas 1996; the first crossover storm to retain a single name was Otto 2016.
• 2021: The use of the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a new auxiliary list is created. Names will be pulled from the auxiliary list after the main list is exhausted. Note that EPAC's auxiliary list also contained X, Y and Z names, which are distinct from the two sets of X-Z names on the normal lists.

Interesting to know!
Which list do you think will retire all first?