This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557Rob Lightbown on November 18, 2011, 5:08 am
We are keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather that is located about 900 miles or so east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This disturbed weather is in association with a surface trough of low pressure which looks to be developing a surface low pressure system early this morning. Development into a sub-tropical or tropical storm is quite possible this weekend or early next week as it tracks well northeast of the Leeward Islands and well southeast of Bermuda.
The GFS model guidance continues to be the most aggressive with developing a tropical storm out in the central Atlantic this weekend while the European model remains much more muted on this development. Given the fact that we already have the combination of a large area of disturbed weather, a fairly favorable upper level pattern and run to run consistency in the models, I think there is a slightly better than 50 percent chance that we will see this disturbed weather organize into first a sub-tropical storm later this weekend and then possibly transition into a tropical storm early next week. Should this system transform into a named sub-tropical or tropical storm, its name will be Tammy.
Whatever that does develop from this disturbed weather will eventually be pulled northeastward into the eastern and northeastern Atlantic by about Wednesday of next week. It should be pointed out that anything that does develop out in the central Atlantic will not be a threat to any land masses.
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