Reanalysis questions

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#141 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:32 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:A proposed change to Hurricane Camille's intensity will be presented on April 1 by some of the NHC specialists at the 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, FWIW.


I'll be curious to see what it suggests. We had our own theories on here based on Recon data, and we know it bombed out twice - before Cuba (to what was likely a Cat 3 landfall there given the 964 pressure just before landfall and further strengthening) then shortly after, from Cat 2-3 to a strong Cat 5 in the first 24 hours. The rest of the way our theories were slight weakening.
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#142 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:17 pm

Received an email from Chris Landsea back on March 4th, 1946-50 should be coming out soon.
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#143 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:39 pm

Great to see the interest on Audrey, and although I did that reanalysis, I cannot say anything until after my talk at the San Diego hurricane conference!
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#144 Postby Hammy » Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:37 pm

Out of curiousity, with Camille's reanalysis coming out, will there be other scattered storms with it? I remember a reanalysis of North Carolina's 1954 storms, Gloria in 1985, and a few others I can't remember all being published at one point (I think ten total if I recall).
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#145 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:11 pm

Hammy wrote:Out of curiousity, with Camille's reanalysis coming out, will there be other scattered storms with it? I remember a reanalysis of North Carolina's 1954 storms, Gloria in 1985, and a few others I can't remember all being published at one point (I think ten total if I recall).


No.
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#146 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:40 pm

I hope it gets published soon (the new reports) since I might want them as citations as I update my last report, which has yet to be published (and I might do a partial rewrite as 2013 data is now available) on technology and how active past seasons likely were in reality if we knew. I know an average season, if we had all the data and used averages for missed storms, would have about 14 to 16 named storms.

Unless I get a break, I will do the major updating in May hopefully.

Also is the 1954 reanalysis available anywhere for citation purposes? I remember seeing a poster but no journal copy or links. I know the reanalyzed storm count that year is 14, with three new storms. Carol was 100 kt at landfall, Edna was 105 kt and Hazel 115 kt, according to the reanalysis poster.
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#147 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:08 am

1954 may be published late this year or early next year ... I didn't reanalyze those 3 but I did reanalyze the rest of the season and added a couple of storms like you mention
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#148 Postby MGC » Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:59 pm

I've talked with several people that went through both Camille and Katrina. All said Camille had much stronger winds that did not last that long.....MGC
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#149 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I hope it gets published soon (the new reports) since I might want them as citations as I update my last report, which has yet to be published (and I might do a partial rewrite as 2013 data is now available) on technology and how active past seasons likely were in reality if we knew. I know an average season, if we had all the data and used averages for missed storms, would have about 14 to 16 named storms.

Unless I get a break, I will do the major updating in May hopefully.

Also is the 1954 reanalysis available anywhere for citation purposes? I remember seeing a poster but no journal copy or links. I know the reanalyzed storm count that year is 14, with three new storms. Carol was 100 kt at landfall, Edna was 105 kt and Hazel 115 kt, according to the reanalysis poster.


These findings are still preliminary (all except 1938 & 1944 which have since been made official in another reports), the wheels move slowly lol, but this is what you want:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_ ... icanes.pdf *

* warning requires PDF reader
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#150 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:47 pm

Some of the 1946-50 findings are on the reanalysis site, but not all of them yet.
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#151 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:09 pm

Link please :)
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#152 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:17 pm

Actually from what I can tell, its been keyed into HURDAT. Can't find the metadata though.
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#153 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:52 pm

Here are the changes in intensity and dates, as the meta data isn't out yet. Same means nothing major changed that I could tell intensity-wise.

1946:
1-4) Largely the same
5) Peak downgraded from C4 to 85 kt
6) Same

1947:
1-3) Same
4) Peak downgraded from C5 to 125 kt, winds in Gulf of Mexico upped to 95 kt (Fort Lauderdale hurricane)
5) Track extended slightly
6) Same
7) Started out as ET earlier, ended earlier
*) New storm in NE Atl
8) Upgraded to 90 kt from C1, formed one day earlier
9) Same

1948:
1) Slightly longer
2) Same
3) Slightly longer ET
4) Same
5) Dissipated sooner
6) Slightly longer ET
*) New storm in eastern ATL
7) Upgraded to C4 from C3
8) Downgraded to C3 from C4
9) Same

1949:
1) Longer ET
2) Peak downgraded from 130 to 115 kt
3) Slightly weaker
4) Same
5) Same
6) Longer track as ET
*) New storm in NW Atlantic
7) Same
8) Slightly weaker
9) Same
10) TD in EPAC, peak downgraded from 115 kt to 95 kt
*) New storm in central Atlantic
11) Formed later, slightly weaker, lasted later
12) Same
*) New storm northeast of Lesser Antilles
13) Slightly stronger

1950:
1) Able - slightly weaker, ET for 2 days
2) Baker - formed 2 days earlier, slightly weaker
3) Charlie - downgraded from C3 to C2
4) Dog - downgraded from C5 to C4
5) Easy - slightly weaker
6) Fox - same
7) George - same
8) How - weaker
9) Item - slightly weaker
10) Jig - slightly weaker
11) King - upgraded from C3 to C4
12) Same
13) Love - slightly longer track
*) Mike - newly added TS northeast of Lesser Antilles
*) New TS south of Azores in October
*) New TS east of Bermuda
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#154 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:47 pm

Neat. Mike originally was a part of the 1950 season and then they removed it post-season as they deemed it wasn't tropical or something like that. Nice to see it back. That makes 1966's Kendra as the only named storm that has been removed from the database in the Atlantic.
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#155 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:10 am

I'm thinking 1951-54 will be next up. It will likely not be until 2015 that 1955 onward gets into reanalysis, since the process is just being worked on now.

Reanalyzing 1965-74 or so (I wonder who will do that!) will be interesting, since that is the beginning of the satellite era. I think we will gain a lot of new storms in the late 1960s and 1970s.
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Re:

#156 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:56 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:Link please :)


Here is the PDF.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140325_p ... to1950.pdf
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#157 Postby Hurricane Jed » Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:03 pm

With Baker and Charlie getting downgraded from Cat 3's, I believe 1961 and 2005 now share the record for most major hurricanes in a season at 7.
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#158 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:23 am

Looking at the 1950 data, 2005 lost one record - most storms in October. There were eight in October 1950 after reanalysis.
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#159 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:49 pm

From 1965-74, the following storms had pressures of 950mb or lower:

* 1965: Betsy (941mb / 135 kt) - Prediction: decrease to 120 kt
* 1966: Faith (950mb / 110 kt) - Prediction: no change on peak; but ET much sooner
* 1966: Inez (929mb / 130 kt) - Prediction: increase to 140 kt and Cat 5
* 1967: Beulah (923mb / 140 kt) - Prediction: no change on peak
* 1969: Camille (901mb / 165 kt) - Prediction: decrease to 150 kt
* 1970: Celia (945mb / 110 kt) - Prediction: increase to 125 kt and Cat 4
* 1971: Edith (943mb / 140 kt) - Prediction: decrease to 130 kt and Cat 4
* 1974: Carmen (928mb / 130 kt) - Prediction: no change on peak

There were only three Cat 5's in that period, and I think it will remain that way (Inez moves up, Edith moves down).

The big changes I see in that period is a big gain in the number of tropical storms, and perhaps a few new hurricanes. The beginning of the satellite era probably had forecasters unclear what weak storm signatures were like, and they might use old images to find storms with at least a T2.5 equivalent.
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#160 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:03 pm

Metadata update: Camille reanalyzed - 150 kt at peak twice - including at landfall.

What really happened was a double-peak; it bombed out right after landfall in Cuba as a Cat 2, quickly becoming a Cat 5, then entered an ERC (presumably) and weakened to 135 kt based on a 919mb dropsone, before regaining Cat 5 off the LA coast by rapidly intensifying southeast of Plaquemines Parish. Landfall pressure 900mb, but likely was 897mb just offshore.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/met ... aster.html (Near bottom of page)
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